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Date: November 22, 2024 Fri
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Results for crime patterns
12 results foundAuthor: Berk, Richard Title: The Dynamics of Crime Regimes Summary: Crimes have many features, and the mix of those features can change over time and space. In this paper, the authors introduce the concept of a crime regime to provide some theoretical leverage on collections of crime features and how the collection of features can change. Key tools include the use of principal components analysis to determine the dimensions of crime regimes, visualization methods to help reveal the role of time, summary statistics to quantify crime regime patterns, and permutation procedures to examine the role of change. The approach is used to analyze temporal and spatial crime patterns for the City of Los Angeles over a 8 year period. The focus is on the number of violent crimes over time and their potential lethality. Details: Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, Department of Statistics & Department of Criminology, 2009. 46p. Source: Working Paper Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 118397 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PatternsViolent Crimes (Los Angeles) |
Author: Willis, Dale Title: Place and Neighborhood Crime: Examining the Relationship between Schools, Churches, and Alcohol Related Establishments and Crime Summary: The objective of this research is to determine the degree to which neighborhood crime patterns are influenced by the spatial distribution of three types of places: schools, alcohol establishments, and churches. A substantial body of research has examined the relationship between places and crime. Empirically, this research indicates that there is more crime at certain types of places than at others (Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989; Spelmen, 1995; Block and Block, 1995). The criminological literature also provides several potential theoretical explanations for these patterns. The routine activity perspective (Cohen and Felson, 1979) argues that crime occurs when motivated offenders converge with potential victims in unguarded areas. Places that promote this convergence are expected to have elevated crime rates, while places that prevent or reduce this convergence are expected to have lower crime rates. The social disorganization perspective (Shaw and McKay, 1942; Bursik, 1988; Krivo and Peterson, 1996) argues that communities with more collective efficacy (in the form of internal social networks and access to external resources and values) are likely to have less crime, while communities lacking in efficacy are likely to have more crime. Places that promote the formation of positive social ties and grant the community access to external resources are expected to reduce crime, while places that inhibit positive social ties and separate the community from external resources are likely to increase crime. Much of the literature on place and crime has focused on the influence of bars on neighborhood crime rates, with a substantial body of research indicating that bars are associated with elevated crime rates (Roncek and Bell, 1981; Roncek and Pravatiner, 1989; Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989; Roncek and Maier, 1991; Block and Block, 1995). Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger (1989), for example, found that bars can account for upwards of 50% of police service calls in a given area. Here we examine the relationship not only between bars and crime rates, but other types of liquor establishments as well (e.g., liquor stores and restaurants that serve alcohol). In addition to the literature that characterizes bars as hot spots for crime, a smaller, yet growing, body of literature indicates that the presence of schools (Roncek and Lobosco, 1983; Roncek and Faggiani, 1985; Roman, 2004; Kautt and Roncek, 2007, Broidy, Willits, and Denman, 2009, Murray and Swatt, 2010) is also associated with neighborhood crime. The most recent of this research suggests that while high schools are associated with increased crime at the neighborhood level, elementary schools may have a protective influence. Research on churches and crime is limited relative to research focused on schools and bars, but suggests that churches may help protect neighborhoods from crime (Lee, 2006; Lee 2008; Lee 2010). Furthermore, there are theoretical reasons to suspect that churches, like schools and liquor establishments, may be an important type of place to consider when examining crime at the neighborhood level. The current research contributes to a criminological understanding of place and crime by examining whether and how all three location types operate to influence crime rates both independently and relative to one another. Details: Albuquerque, NM: New Mexico Statistical Analysis Center, 2011. 46p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 28, 2011 at: nmsac.unm.edu/ Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 122927 Keywords: Alcohol Related Crime, DisorderChurchesCommunities and CrimeCrime AnalysisCrime Hot-SpotsCrime PatternsNeighborhoods and CrimeSchools |
Author: Hussey, Andrew Title: Crime Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina Summary: Using a di erences-in-di erences approach, we estimate the e ects of migration due to Hurricane Katrina on crime rates across the United States between 2003 and 2007. To account for possible endogeneity between the socio-economic characteristics of a host city and evacuees, we instrument the number of evacuees going to a certain metropolitan area by its distance to New Orleans, LA. Our results suggest that im- migration of Katrina evacuees led to a more than 13 percent increase in murder and non-negligent manslaughter, an almost 3 percent increase in robbery, and a 4.1 per- cent increase in motor vehicle theft. We also examine Houston, TX, home to a large number of comparatively more disadvantaged evacuees, and nd dramatic increases in murder (27 percent) and aggravated assault (28 percent) coupled with increases in illegal possession of weapons (32 percent) and arson (41 percent) in areas lived by evacuees. While these estimated e ects are substantial, we are unable to determine whether the crimes were committed by evacuees, or were triggered by their presence. Details: Memphis, TN: University of Memphis, Department of Economics, 2011. 43p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 3, 2011 at: http://umdrive.memphis.edu/ajhussey/www/Katrina_5_28.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://umdrive.memphis.edu/ajhussey/www/Katrina_5_28.pdf Shelf Number: 122970 Keywords: Crime DisplacementCrime PatternsGeographic StudiesHurricane KatrinaMigration (U.S.)Natural Disasters |
Author: Predd, Joel B. Title: Using Pattern Analysis and Systematic Randomness to Allocate U.S. Border Security Resources Summary: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting U.S. borders against terrorist threats, criminal endeavors, illegal immigration, and contraband. Unfortunately, due to budgetary and other resource constraints, it cannot "see and be" everywhere at once. In response, the Office of Border Patrol (OBP) is investigating how pattern and trend analysis and systematic randomness can be used to position border security personnel and equipment in the places and at the times they will be most effective. A RAND study examined how these techniques affect interdiction rates, incorporating results from a RAND-developed agent-based simulation model of the interaction of border patrol agents and illegal smugglers. The model allowed an exploration of how interdiction rates differ across thousands of scenarios that vary by the number of patrols, the rate of illegal flow, the size of the border, and the approach OBP takes to using pattern and trend analysis and systematic randomness. The analysis shows how approaches that combine these two techniques yield higher interdiction rates than approaches using either technique alone, and it identifies circumstances in which combined approaches are competitive with perfect surveillance. Details: Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2012. 62p. Source: Technical Report: Internet Resource: Accessed May 8, 2012 at http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2012/RAND_TR1211.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2012/RAND_TR1211.pdf Shelf Number: 125198 Keywords: Border Security (U.S.)Crime Patterns |
Author: Hibdon, Julie A. Title: What's Hot and What's Not: The Effects of Individual Factors on the Identification of Hot and Cool Crime Spots Summary: Theoretical arguments suggest that crime escalates in disadvantaged and disorderly areas because these areas contain cues of danger and safety that signal individuals to stay away, thus reducing effective guardianship, a powerful protective factor against crime. Yet, there is very little knowledge on how perceptions of crime places translate into avoidance or withdrawal behaviors. Moreover, there is limited knowledge of how individual characteristics inform and influence these perceptions. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, this study seeks to understand the accuracy with which people can identify crime hot spots and cool spots within their community. Second, this study will examine the influence of individual predictors on respondents. abilities to identify crime and non-crime locations within the two study neighborhoods. Specifically, individual level predictors of individual demographics, perceptions of crime and disorder, and neighborhood familiarity and tenure are tested. Study measures are derived using two data sources including cognitive maps administered to active community members (N=168) through the Communities Problems and Issues Survey (CPIS) and calls for service to the Trinidad and Tobago Emergency Response System (E-999). Accuracy and the influence of individual predictors are tested using a mix of analytic techniques including descriptive diagnostics, t-tests, zero-inflated count regression analysis and ordinal logistic regression. Overall, the study supports past perception of crime research by determining that respondents are not accurate in identifying crime hot spots. Additionally, when testing the individual predictors that influence accuracy, two factors, gender and neighborhood familiarity, have a strong influence on whether respondents include crime hot spots in the areas they consider unsafe or dangerous. The study concludes with a discussion of the study's implications for both practice and research. Details: Fairfax, VA: George Mason University, 2011. 221p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed July 23, 2012 at: Gottfredson Library of Criminal Justice Year: 2011 Country: Trinidad and Tobago URL: Shelf Number: 125716 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime and PlaceCrime Hot Spots (Trinidad and Tobago)Crime Patterns |
Author: Braga, Anthony Title: Hot spots policing effects on crime Summary: In recent years, crime scholars and practitioners have pointed to the potential benefits of focusing crime prevention efforts on crime places. A number of studies suggest that there is significant clustering of crime in small places, or “hot spots,” that generate half of all criminal events. A number of researchers have argued that many crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention to these deviant places. The appeal of focusing limited resources on a small number of high-activity crime places is straightforward. If we can prevent crime at these hot spots, then we might be able to reduce total crime. To assess the effects of focused police crime prevention interventions at crime hot spots. The review also examined whether focused police actions at specific locations result in crime displacement (i.e., crime moving around the corner) or diffusion (i.e., crime reduction in surrounding areas) of crime control benefits. Details: Oslo: The Campbell Collaboration, 2012. 97p. Source: Campbell Systematic Reviews 2012:8: Internet Resource: Accessed September 4, 2012 at http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/lib/download/2097/ Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://www.campbellcollaboration.org/lib/download/2097/ Shelf Number: 126251 Keywords: Crime and PlaceCrime Hot SpotsCrime PatternsCrime PreventionHot SpotsPolicing |
Author: Curman, Andrea S. Nemeth Title: Crime and Place: A Longitudinal Examination of Street Segment Patterns in Vancouver, B.C. Summary: The study of crime and place recognizes the important interplay between the physical landscape and criminal activity. In doing so, research in this area has shown substantial concentrations of crime amongst micro geographic units, such as street blocks. Despite these revelations, little research has examined whether such criminal concentrations persist over time. The developmental trajectory of criminal activity on street blocks was originally studied in Seattle, Washington. This dissertation replicates that seminal study by examining crime volumes on the streets of Vancouver, British Columbia, over a 16 year period using a group-based trajectory model (GBTM). Going further, this research also applies a non-parametric technique, termed k-means to address various limitations inherent to the GBTM method. The major findings reveal the majority of street blocks in Vancouver evidence stable crime levels, with a minority of street blocks throughout the city showing decreasing crime trajectories over the 16 year period. Both statistical techniques found comparable patterns of crime throughout Vancouver. A geographic analysis of the identified crime trajectories revealed linear concentrations of high, medium and low decreasing trajectories throughout the city, with the high decreasing street blocks showing particularly visible concentrations in the northeast part of Vancouver. Overall, the results confirm the original conclusions from the Seattle study in that many street blocks evidence significant developmental trajectories of crime and that the application of trajectory analysis to crime at micro places is a strategically useful way to examine the longevity of crime clusters. The results did not support the existence or stability of bad areas, but did find 'bad streets'. It is recommended that police and public safety practitioners pay close attention to the varying levels of criminal activity on street blocks when developing place-based crime prevention initiatives. Details: Burnaby, BC: Simon Fraser University, 2012. 180p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed June 26, 2014 at: summit.sfu.ca Year: 2012 Country: Canada URL: summit.sfu.ca Shelf Number: 132560 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PatternsCrime PreventionGeographical AnalysisHigh Crime AreasHot-SpotsPlace-BasedStreet Crime |
Author: Olaghere, Ajima Title: The Everyday Activities that Bind for Crime: investigating the Process of Routine Activities Theory at Specific Places Summary: This dissertation explores why and how crime events routinely occur at specific places in high crime areas, such as street blocks, addresses, street corners, and intersections. Specifically, this dissertation considers what human activities, behaviors, routines, and situations contribute to crime occurring at these places. Routine activities theory and environmental criminology suggest that crime is a process resulting from the convergence of the daily human routines of offenders, targets, and guardians (or lack thereof). Furthermore, these opportunities for crime are sustained, enhanced, or limited based on surrounding physical and environmental features of where crimes occur. Many scholars have attempted to test the salience o f these theories using spatial data analysis, quantitative data analysis, and comp uter simulation modeling (Bosse, Elffers, Gerritsen, 2010; Cahill, 2004; Groff, 2007 ; Groff, 2008; Lum, 2003). However, these methods often fall short because the process of the routines and their link to crime occurrence are not actually observed, but instead e stimated from administrative data and he use of statistical modeling. This dissertation attempts to improve our understanding about the link between routine activities, the envi ronment, and crime using systematic social observation (SSO) of archived closed circuit television (CCTV) footage of crime events in Baltimore City. This approach serves as t he best possible and safest approach to explore the salience of routine activities theory a nd environmental criminology, short of observing routines in real time that unfold into cr imes. Given time and resource constraints, I examined 100 crime events from a col lection of the Baltimore Police Department's (BPD) archived footage. Systematic obs ervations of each archived crime event were completed using a theoretically informed instrumentation on site at a CCTV monitoring station for six and half months, culmina ting in over 2,340 hours of data collection of 397 hours of actual footage. Qualitative and exploratory data analysis produced findings largely about the routines leading up to drug crime events, with some comparison to violent and property crime. Systematic patterns of behavior leading up t o crime were observed, and could be categorized into a number of common features. With respect to drug crimes, eight common features emerged that help explain the proce ss of drug crimes unfolding in high crime places. The features varied to the degree in which they emerged, some features having a higher likelihood of occurrence than other s. These findings, while exploratory, have implications for routine activities theory and crime pattern theory, and future research Details: Fairfax, VA: George Mason University, 2015. 223p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed August 3, 2016 at: http://digilib.gmu.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1920/9658/Olaghere_gmu_0883E_10882.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 139972 Keywords: Crime PatternsCrime PlacesEnvironmental CriminologyHigh Crime AreasRoutine Activities |
Author: Ratcliffe, Jeremy H. Title: The genius loci of crime: revealing associations in time and space Summary: In most police services the only spatial and temporal analysis of crime was conducted until recently by statisticians at the force headquarters, with little or no regard for any short term or localised patterns of crime. In recent years there has been a move towards a more decentralised, proactive style of British policing focused at the police divisional and community level. This has left an intelligence void where force level analysis techniques are neither appropriate nor subtle enough to elicit any meaningful information at a local level from the mass of crime data generated within the police service. This thesis reveals patterns in community level crime which have not been recognised previously using traditional techniques in spatial and temporal investigation which tend to lack the necessary analytical ability. Current policing considerations are recognised and the thesis concentrates on three aspects of police crime concern: accurate temporal analysis, repeat victimisation, and the identification of hotspots. A number of new techniques are presented which are designed with the needs of a crime analyst at a divisional police station in mind, an individual who has until now lacked the necessary analytical tools to perform the role effectively. Details: Nottingham, UK: University of Nottingham, 1999. 314p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed August 4, 2016 at: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11444/ Year: 1999 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11444/ Shelf Number: 130040 Keywords: Crime Analysis Crime PatternsPolicing Spatial Analysis |
Author: Jackson, Mark Title: Murder Concentration and Distribution Patterns in London: An Exploratory Analysis of Ten Years of Data Summary: The phenomenon of how the volume of crime varies from place to place has received significant focus over the last four decades. Previous research has identified that crime is not randomly distributed across places but clusters in areas sometimes called hot spots. This research analyses 10 years of homicide patterns across London from Local Authority Borough level down to small local neighbourhood level. Through the use of geo-coding technology to map homicide locations and victims' and offenders' home addresses, frequency analysis is conducted down to a Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level. This provides a structure to segment London into 4761 neighbourhoods. The findings of this research are that 74% of London's LSOAs do not have a single homicide over the 10 year period. Additionally it identifies that homicide in London is concentrated in a small number of local neighbourhood locations rather than randomly spread across the whole city. These concentrations account for only 6% of neighbourhoods but contribute 42% of the homicide locations, over the 10 year period. This methodology is also applied to specific methods of homicide, e.g. domestic violence, where similar patterns of concentrations of homicides are identified. Geographical analysis of victims and perpetrators of homicide identifies that 50% of perpetrators reside within one mile of the homicide offence location. Additionally 52% of perpetrators' home addresses are clustered within 9% of LSOAs. This research will contribute to the criminological evidence-base, having both operational implications, such as the focus of policing patrol strategy, and policy implications for a significant number of agencies in how they assess the prioritisation of resources, particularly within the current difficult fiscal climate. Details: Cambridge, UK: Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, 2010. 100p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed October 17, 2016 at: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Jackson,%20M.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Jackson,%20M.pdf Shelf Number: 145099 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime and PlaceCrime Hot SpotsCrime PatternsHomicidesHot Spots |
Author: Ghosh, Arindam Title: The Geography of Crime in Rochester -- Patterns over Time (2005-2011) Summary: This paper provides maps of all FBI part 1 crimes which were reported in Rochester, New York from 2005 through 2011. The goal of the paper is to examine the patterns of reported crime over a time and space within the City. The offense definitions used here are from the official measure of crime known as the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). The FBI’s UCR Program is a nationwide, cooperative statistical effort of law enforcement agencies across the country (nearly 18,000 of them) voluntarily reporting data on crimes brought to their attention. In this case, the data was obtained from the Rochester Police Department, which is collected by the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services (NYSDCJS) and reported to the FBI. The data spanned a time period of over 7 years, from 2005-2011. This paper contains the crime density maps for the Part I crimes occurring in Rochester over the same time period. We will start with a warning to the reader. This paper contains a large number of maps and a smaller number of charts. For us, these are important as ways of displaying the data, but they have been important to our analytic processes as well. We have found them to be useful in guiding our own thoughts and discussions about the problem of crime in Rochester. We hope they are useful to others in both trying to understanding that problem and in addressing it. Even with this hope, however, we recognize that this is a lengthy set of maps and other data displays. So we want to start with a few general statements from the data that we think will summarize key points that may not be entirely obvious, and that we hope will tempt you to struggle through the rest of the paper. First, it is important to note the trends shown in the data. Reductions in crime are shown for five of the eight categories of Part 1 crimes including murder, rape, robbery, arson, motor vehicle theft and larceny. Levels for aggravated assault and generally flat while burglary levels show a slight upward trend. Taken together, these data show that over 127,000 part 1 crimes were reported in Rochester for the seven years from 2005 through 2011. An important point to be made, however, is that much of the information we get from official crime statistics, particularly when overall crime level or rate is discussed, is dominated by facts about larceny, the crime of lowest seriousness and highest frequency. In Rochester larceny (theft) accounts for nearly 60% of all Part 1 offenses. Combining crime number, then, can lead to confusion. For example, due to the way official crime measures are aggregated, crime index totals count each shoplifting the same as each murder. If you are not careful, such things can mask or distort the reality of crime as it is experienced within the community. Also, bear in mind that these are reported crimes, and as we know, there are many crimes which go unreported, so this does not tell is the whole story – only part of it. While serious violent crime is less frequent than the aggregated data may initially suggestwith the exception of rape, it is highly concentrated geographically and those concentrations persist over time. These are the most important facts about the distribution of serious crime. And, there are important implications to them. First and foremost, it should be clear that, across this community, people have very different experiences with crime in general, with the risk of becoming a victim in particular, and also with the criminal justice system as it responds to crime. We may live very different lives as a result. Recognizing that, it should also be apparent that seeing beyond the chasm that crime can create, in order to better understand one another, is both a difficult and important task. But there are also more specific implications of these crime patterns. They crystalize the community’s responsibility for addressing them. Their persistence demands action. That action can take many forms. It includes the work of individuals and organizations which seek to mitigate the pain implicit in these patterns, and to reduce or prevent violence. It also includes the focus and concentration of appropriate government resources, including the police. Their work is shaped by these patterns. The distribution of serious violence makes them a salient part of the lives of those most affected by crime. And, these facts make clear the great value to be found in strong relationships between the police and the community where crime is highest. Details: Rochester, NY: Center for Public Safety Initiatives, Rochester Institute of Technology, 2012. 28p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper, August 2012-10: Accessed December 15, 2016 at: http://www.rit.edu/cla/criminaljustice/sites/rit.edu.cla.criminaljustice/files/docs/WorkingPapers/2012/2012-10.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://www.rit.edu/cla/criminaljustice/sites/rit.edu.cla.criminaljustice/files/docs/WorkingPapers/2012/2012-10.pdf Shelf Number: 146163 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PatternsGeographical AnalysisNeighborhoods and crime |
Author: Elliott, Amy Elizabeth Title: Changing Crime Mix Patterns of Criminal Careers: Longitudinal Latent Variable Approaches for Modelling Conviction Data in England & Wales and the Netherlands Summary: In criminal career research, there has been a great deal of attention paid to the frequency of offending over the life course. This neglects any changes in the patterns and types of offences being committed. However, it is crucial to explore these patterns of offending in detail and various types of crimes being committed, as this will enhance the understanding of criminal activity and the causes of offending behaviour. This is especially true for policy makers, so they can make better informed decisions when deciding how best to target their resources when it comes to tackling crime. This thesis aims to identify crime mix patterns (different offenders will commit different selection of offences) and how they develop over the life course from two official conviction datasets. The first is the England and Wales Offenders Index (OI). The cohort data of the OI contains the court convictions of offenders from 1963 to the end of 2008 in eight birth cohorts. The other dataset is from the Netherlands Criminal Career and Life-course study (CCLS) which contains data covering the criminal careers of those offenders who were convicted of a crime in the Netherlands in 1977, starting at age 12 and followed up till 2005. The study will provide a contrasting analysis of the two datasets using a Latent Markov Model approach similar to that published in Francis et al. (2010) where the idea of lifestyle specialisation and short-term crime typologies (crime mixes) over five-year age-periods was introduced for female offenders. This approach will jointly estimate the crime mix patterns and the transition probabilities (offenders move from one pattern to another). The study adds methodological innovation in criminology by the use of B-splines in group based trajectory models and in the modelling of Poisson counts in latent Markov models. Details: Lancaster, UK: Lancaster University, 2017. 211p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed February 4, 2019 at: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/124459/1/2018AmyElliottAppliedSocialStatistics.pdf Year: 2017 Country: Europe URL: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/124459/1/2018AmyElliottAppliedSocialStatistics.pdf Shelf Number: 154469 Keywords: Crime PatternsCriminal Careers Life-Course Criminology |