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Date: November 22, 2024 Fri
Time: 11:40 am
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Results for crime rates
127 results foundAuthor: McCausland, Ruth Title: Factors Affecting Crime Rates in Indigenous Communities in NSW: A Pilot Study in Wilcannia and Menindee Summary: This pilot study set out to look at two towns with significant Aboriginal communities that are comparable in terms of geography, population, and context, but with higher or lower crime rates. The aim of the study was to identify common themes and factors that may be considered to have an impact on crime rates being higher in Wilcannia and lower in Menindee. Given that the focus was on understanding the political, social, cultural and economic dynamics contributing to crime rate, interviews were conducted with a range of community and organizational representatives and others working in relevant criminal justice and service delivery roles as a way to better understand the dynamics and experiences of the community as a whole. Details: Sydney: Jumbunna Indigenous House of Learning, University of Technology Sydney, 2009. 72p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 17, 2018 at: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/FinalCommunityReportBLNov10.pdf Year: 2009 Country: Australia URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/FinalCommunityReportBLNov10.pdf Shelf Number: 117101 Keywords: Aboriginal PeoplesComparative StudiesCrime RatesIndigenous Peoples |
Author: Rumbaut, Ruben G. Title: The Myth of Immigrant Criminality and the Paradox of Assimilation: Incarceration Rates Among Native and Foreign-Born Men Summary: Using data from the U.S. census and other sources, this report indicates that for every ethnic group in the U.S., incarceration rates among young men are lowest for immigrants. Details: Washington, DC: American Immigration Law Foundation, 2007. 16p. Source: Special Report Year: 2007 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 114785 Keywords: Crime RatesImmigrants |
Author: Taylor, Ralph B. Title: Potential Models for Understanding Crime Impacts of High or Increasing Unoccupied Housing Rates in Unexpected Places, and How to Prevent Them. Summary: This work considers how spatial and temporal variations in the rates at which residential housing becomes unoccupied are likely to affect community crime rates. Details: Philadelphia: Temple University, Department of Criminal Justice, 2009. 39p. Source: Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 118157 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomic InfluencesHousingNeighborhoods |
Author: Bell, Brian Title: Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves Summary: This paper examines the relationship between immigration and crime in a setting where large migration flows offer an opportunity to carefully appraise whether the populist view that immigrants cause crime in borne out by rigorous evidence. The paper considers possible crime effects from two large waves of immigration that recently occurred in the U.K. The first of these was the late 1990s/early 2000s wave of asylum seekers, and the second the large inflow of workers from EU accession countries that took place from 2004. A simple economics of crime model, when dovetailed with facts about the relative labor market position of these migrant groups, suggests net returns to criminal activity are likely to be very different for the two waves. In fact, the paper shows that the first wave led to a small rise in property crime, whilst the second wave had no such impact. There was no observable effect on violent crime for either wave. Nor were immigrant arrest rates different to natives. Evidence from victimization data also suggests that the changes in crime rates during the immigrant waves cannot be ascribed to crimes against immigrants. Overall, the findings suggest that focusing on the limited labor market opportunities of asylum seekers could have beneficial effects on crime rates. Details: Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2010. 44p. Source: Internet Resource; IZA Discussion Paper No. 4996 Year: 2010 Country: United Kingdom URL: Shelf Number: 118789 Keywords: Crime RatesImmigrants (U.K.)Immigrants and CrimeImmigration |
Author: O'Flaherty, Brendan Title: Peaceable Kingdoms and War Zones: Preemption, Ballistics and Murder in Newark Summary: Between 2000 and 2006 the murder rate in Newark doubled while the national rate remained essentially constant. In 2006, Newark had seven times as many murders per capita as the nation as a whole. Furthermore, the increase in murders came about through an increase in lethality: total gun discharges rose much more slowly than the likelihood of death per shooting. In order to explain these trends we develop a theoretical model of murder in which preemptive killing and weapon choice play a central role. Strategic complementarity amplifes changes in fundamentals, so areas with high murder rates (war zones) respond much more strongly to changes in fundamentals than those with low murder rates (peaceable kingdoms). In Newark, the changes in fundamentals that set o¤ the spiral were a collapsing arrest rate (and probably a falling conviction rate), a reduction in prisoners, and a shrinking police force. A prediction of the model is that murders will decline in a manner that is as sharp and sudden as the increase has been, and there is preliminary evidence to suggest that such a collapse in the murder rate is already underway. Details: New York: Department of Economics, Columbia University, 2007. 61p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 11, 2010 at: http://www.columbia.edu/~rs328/murder.pdf Year: 2007 Country: United States URL: http://www.columbia.edu/~rs328/murder.pdf Shelf Number: 119915 Keywords: Crime RatesGun ViolenceGunsHomicide |
Author: Dutta, Mousumi Title: Determinants of Crime Rates: Crime Deterrence and Growth in Post-Liberalized India Summary: Becker’s analysis of crime and punishment has initiated a series of theoretical and empirical works investigating the determinants of crime. However, there is a dearth of literature in the context of developing countries. This paper is an attempt to address this deficiency. The paper investigates the relative impact of deterrence variables (load on police force, arrest rates, charge sheet rates, conviction rates and quick disposal of cases) and socio-economic variables (economic growth, poverty,, urbanization and education) on crime rates in India. State-level data is collected on the above variables for the period 1999 to 2005. Zellner’s SURE model is used to estimate the model. Subsequently, this is extended by introducing endogeneity. The results show that both deterrence and socioeconomic factors are important in explaining crime rates. However, some of their effects are different from that observed in studies for developed countries. Details: Munich: University Library of Munich, 2009. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 21, 2010 at: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14478/1/MPRA_paper_14478.pdf Year: 2009 Country: India URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14478/1/MPRA_paper_14478.pdf Shelf Number: 120039 Keywords: Crime RatesDeterrenceSocio-Economic Conditions |
Author: Barenboim, Igor Title: Does Crime Breed Inequality? Theory and Evidence from the Favelas in Rio de Janeiro Summary: Crime and income inequality are positively correlated. Many have argued that the causation from the latter to the former; to our knowledge, the reverse channel of causality has not been studied. We present two simple mechanisms through which crime can breed inequality, both based on the idea that private protection from crime is a normal good. In our first hypothesis, crime distorts savings decisions by lowering expected returns, and more so for the poor who can afford less protection. Our second model explores how crime can generate inequality by diferentially affecting location decisions according to income. We test these ideas empirically in the extremely high-crime context of slums ("favelas") in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and find suggestive evidence that higher crime leads to more inequality within favelas. We also show evidence of the savings mechanism, with little support for the spatial mechanism in this context. Details: Cambridge, MA: Harvard University (Working Paper), 2009. 50p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 23, 2010 at: http://www.eea-esem.com/files/papers/EEA-ESEM/2009/448/Favelas_draft18Jan09%202.pdf Year: 2009 Country: Brazil URL: http://www.eea-esem.com/files/papers/EEA-ESEM/2009/448/Favelas_draft18Jan09%202.pdf Shelf Number: 120056 Keywords: Crime RatesInequalityPovertyPrivate ProtectionSlumsSocioeconomic Status |
Author: Roy, Susmita Title: The Impact of Natural Disasters on Crime Summary: This study addresses the following questions in the context of a developing coun- try. Do crimes increase following natural disasters? Does an upcoming election or the presence of a strong local media, which potentially increases the incentive of the government to provide disaster relief, mitigate the effect of disasters on crime rates? The study found that crime rates tend to increase following moderate to big disasters. Furthermore, a higher pre-disaster growth of newspapers has a mitigating effect on the crime response to disasters. Elections also influence the crime response to disasters. Crimes are more likely to rise following disasters in the years that are close to an election year. Details: Christchurch, NZ: Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury, 2010. 32p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper No. 57/2010: Accessed October 26, 2010 at: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1057.pdf Year: 2010 Country: International URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1057.pdf Shelf Number: 120101 Keywords: Crime RatesMass MediaNatural Disasters |
Author: Gaviria, Alejandro Title: Assessing the Link Between Adolescent Fertility and Urban Crime Summary: We use data of neighborhoods of Bogotá to assess the causal relation between their adolescent fertility and their homicide rates. We find that neighborhoods with high adolescent fertility rates, and that have low secondary enrollment and high crime rates at the moment the children of their teen mothers become teenagers, are more likely to have higher homicide rates in the future, when those children reach their peak crime ages, estimated to be between 18 to 26 years old in violent cities of Colombia. We did not find evidence of a positive effect on crime when the adolescent fertility rates are either isolated, or only coupled with low school enrollment, or high crime rates. We also find that increases in the secondary school enrollment always reduce the homicide rate. The results are robust to various specifications, including measurement error corrections, and the modeling of the spatial autocorrelation of homicides. Details: Bogota, Colombia: Borradores de Economica, 2010. 56p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper No. 594: Accessed February 9, 2011 at: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra594.pdf Year: 2010 Country: Colombia URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra594.pdf Shelf Number: 120733 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics and CrimeHomicides (Bogota, Colombia)Urban Crime |
Author: Fagan, Jeffrey Title: Incarceration and the Economic Fortunes of Urban Neighborhoods Summary: New research has identified the consequences of high rates of incarceration on neighborhood crime rates, but few studies have looked beyond crime to examine the collateral effects of incarceration on the social and economic well being of the neighborhoods themselves and their residents. We assess two specific indicia of neighborhood economic well-being, household income and human capital, dimensions that are robust predictors of elevated crime, enforcement and incarceration rates. We decompose incarceration effects by neighborhood racial composition and socio-economic conditions to account for structural disadvantages in labor force and access to wealth that flow from persistent patterns of residential segregation. We use panel methods to examine the effects on incarceration on New York City census tracts over an 11 year period from 1985-1996, a period which saw crime rates rise and fall sharply, and when incarceration rates increased and remained high in concentrated areas throughout the city. We examine whether persistently high incarceration rates erode human capital and depress median household incomes, further intensifying incarceration risks and threatening to create conditions where incarceration and economic disadvantage become endogenous features of certain neighborhoods. We find distinct but overlapping effects for prisons and jails, suggesting that these are parallel processes produced by loosely coupled law enforcement priorities. Incarceration effects are greater for household income than human capital, suggesting a complex relationship between persistent poverty, residential segregation, and incarceration that reinforces a classic poverty trap. Household incomes are lower over time in neighborhoods with higher proportions of African American population, even after controlling for the effects of race on incarceration, but we find no similar effects for Hispanic populations. Spatially targeted policies such as microinvestment and housing development may be needed offset the local embeddedness of poverty and disrupt its connections to incarceration and crime, while education policy and transitional labor market networking can strengthen local human capital. Details: New York: Columbia Law School, 2010. 45p. Source: Internet Resource: Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 11-266: Accessed March 11, 2011 at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1772190 Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1772190 Shelf Number: 120971 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics of CrimeImprisonmentIncarcerationNeighborhoods and CrimeSocioeconomic StatusUrban Areas |
Author: Cahill, Meagan Title: Theft in the District of Columbia: Patterns and Trends, 2000-2009 Summary: This brief describes the changes in crime patterns in the District of Columbia over the last decade. After the mid-1960s, theft rates in Washington, D.C., were higher and more volatile than rates for the nation as a whole. Since then, rates in Washington, D.C., have dropped but remained higher than the national level in 2009. And, weekly theft counts increased significantly from 2005 to 2009 by approximately 25 percent. Thefts clustered in the central city areas, where business and retail activity is common. A hot spot was found in the Dupont Circle neighborhood in 2000, but by 2009, thefts clustered strongly in Columbia Heights. A drop in thefts in two popular center-city neighborhoods also raised questions about what caused those drops. Details: Washington, DC: District of Columbia Crime Policy Institute, Urgan Institute, 2010. 4p. Source: Internet Resource: Brief No. 8: Accessed March 28, 2011 at: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/DCPI_TheftBrief_1.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/DCPI_TheftBrief_1.pdf Shelf Number: 121125 Keywords: Crime RatesTheft (Washington, D.C.) |
Author: Cahill, Meagan Title: Small Number of Blocks Account for Lots of Crime in D.C. Summary: This brief looks at crime at the Census block level. Most crime is concentrated in a relatively small number of blocks in the District—in any given year, more than one-quarter of the crimes occur in just five percent of the blocks. The largest clusters of high crime blocks are found in the center of the city and on the eastern edge of the city, in the Third, Sixth, and Seventh Police Districts. Details: Washington, DC: District of Columbia Crime Policy Institute, Urban Institute, 2010. 2 p. Source: Internet Resource: Brief No. 7: Accessed March 28, 2011 at: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/DCPIBrief_CrimeByBlockFINAL_2.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/DCPIBrief_CrimeByBlockFINAL_2.pdf Shelf Number: 121128 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics (Washington, D.C.)Hot Spots |
Author: Han, Lu Title: Understanding the Determinants of Property and Violent Crime in England and Wales: A Panel Data Analysis Summary: We examine various determinants of property and violent crimes by using police force area level (PFA) data on England and Wales over the period 1992-2008. Our list of potential determinants includes two law enforcement variables namely crime-specific detection rate and prison population, and various socio-economic variables such as unemployment rate, real earnings, proportion of young people and Gini Coefficient. By adopting a fixed effect dynamic GMM estimation methodology we attempt to address the potential bias that arises from the presence of time-invariant unobserved characteristics of a PFA and the endogeneity of several regressors. There is a significant positive effect of own-lagged crime rate. The own-lagged effect is stronger for property crime, on an average, than violent crime. We find that, on an average, higher detection rate and prison population leads to lower property and violent crimes. This is robust to various specifications. However, socio-economic variables with the exception of real earnings play a limited role in explaining different crime types. Details: Unpublished Paper, 2011. 31p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 1, 2011 at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1773913 Year: 2011 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1773913 Shelf Number: 121220 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsProperty CrimeSocioeconomic ConditionsViolent Crime (U.K.) |
Author: Austin, James Title: Orleans Parish Prison Ten-Year Inmate Population Projection Summary: Prior to Katrina the Orleans Parish population had gradually declined from 483,663 to 455,188. The at-risk population was also declining at that time. Post Katrina the Orleans Parish population has returned to approximately 80% of its former size. It is not clear the extent to which the population will continue to grow. The repopulation of Orleans Parish has resulted in a population that has a higher rate of home ownership, higher education level, lower poverty rate, and higher median household income. All of these factors are associated with lower crime rates. Despite significant increases in the Orleans Parish Prison (OPP), both the number and rate of serious crimes reported to police have significantly declined. The number of arrests have declined from their peak of nearly 140,000 in 2004 to 92,500 in 2009. More recently, the first ten months of 2010 show a 18% decrease in arrests as compared to the first ten months of 2009 – a drop of 14,646 arrests. The current demographic trends of the Parish as well as the declining reported crime and arrest trends suggest a downward trend in OPP admissions. The report includes an analysis of the current prisoner population, a comparison with other parishes, a detailed assessment of admissions and releases, and policy options which the Orleans Parish could adopt to further reduce the current prison population. Details: Washington, DC: The JFA Institute, 2010. 39p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 7, 2011 at: http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/233722.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/233722.pdf Shelf Number: 121262 Keywords: Crime RatesInmates (New Orleans)Prisoners |
Author: Police Executive Research Forum Title: Violent Crime in America: What We Know About Hot Spots Enforcement Summary: This report is the fourth in a series in which the Police Executive Research Forum focuses on violence in the United States and what local police agencies are doing to prevent homicides, robberies, assaults, and other violent crimes. Once again, PERF has been able to call on our member police chiefs, sheriffs, and other local police officials as well as federal agency leaders and other experts to provide answers to these questions: Are violent crime levels going up or down in your jurisdiction? What kinds of strategies and tactics are you using to fight violent crime? In particular, most of you have told us that “hot spots” enforcement is high on your list of violent crime countermeasures. Please give us all of the details you can about this. Tell us stories that illustrate what hot spots enforcement means to you. A bit of background: In 2005, police chiefs began telling PERF that violent crime seemed to be making an unwelcome comeback in the United States, following a decade in which levels of violence fell dramatically. PERF began tracking this development by conducting surveys of our member police agencies in which we asked them for their most up-to-date statistics on their violent crime levels. We also began convening Violent Crime Summits, where police officials gathered to discuss the survey findings and talk about the latest tactics that seemed effective in pushing violent crime back down. To date, we have conducted four violent crime surveys and organized three Violent Crime Summits. Here’s where we stand in the spring of 2008: Violent crime spiked dramatically in 2005 and 2006, with many jurisdictions showing double-digit percentage increases in homicides and other crimes; PERF’s surveys, while much smaller than the FBI’s massive Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system, seem to be a good sample of jurisdictions, because when the FBI released its UCR figures, they confirmed PERF’s finding of significantly higher violence in 2005 and 2006; Police agencies have responded to the higher crime levels quickly, implementing many types of programs designed to bring violent crime back down. The most common type of violence reduction strategy reported is hot-spots enforcement; It appears that the police anti-violence strategies are having an impact in many jurisdictions. PERF’s latest figures for all of 2007 show that in the same sample of 56 jurisdictions that proved accurate in 2005 and 2006, violent crime fell approximately 4 to 8 percent in all four categories tracked by PERF: homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, and aggravated assault with a firearm. Violent crime does remain volatile, however. Even though the total numbers of violent crimes in PERF’s sample of jurisdictions are down, many cities and counties are still reporting increases in violence. In fact, depending on the type of crime, our most recent numbers for all of 2007 show that 42 to 48 percent of the reporting jurisdictions reported increases in violence. Details: Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum, 2008. 43p. Source: Internet Resource: Critical Issues in Policing Series: Accessed April 15, 2011 at: http://www.policeforum.org/library/critical-issues-in-policing-series/HotSpots_v4.pdf Year: 2008 Country: United States URL: http://www.policeforum.org/library/critical-issues-in-policing-series/HotSpots_v4.pdf Shelf Number: 121365 Keywords: Crime ClustersCrime RatesCrime SurveysHot SpotsPolicingViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Leonardson, Gary R. Title: Native American Crime in the Northwest: 2004-2009 – BIA Information from Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington Summary: According to the 2000 census, American Indians and Alaska Natives account for about 1.5 percent or 4.3 million people in the United States. Most (2.5 million) of these listed “American Indian” or “Alaska Native” as their only racial category, while some (1.8 million) indicated “ American Indian” or “Alaska Native” along with one or more additional race categories. It is estimated that nearly half (43.5%) of all American Indians/Alaska Natives reside on Federal reservations or in a tribal statistical area during the 2000 Census. The percents by state of American Indian or Alaska Native for the states covered in this report are: Alaska (15.3%), Washington, (1.7%), Idaho (1.4%), Oregon (1.4%), Montana (6.4%), and Wyoming (2.5%). The offense information for the report was provided by the Office of Law Enforcement and Security within District 5 of the Bureau of Indian Affairs in Billings, Montana. District 5 includes three regions (Mountain, Northwest, and Juneau) with 47 Tribes (or tribal-related law enforcement agencies, covering the states of Montana, Wyoming, Alaska, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon. This report is segmented into three separate reports. The first Section presents the overall results, the second Section provides information by each of the six states, and the third Section presents information by tribal or special law enforcement agencies. Information for all three Sections is presented as general results, illustrating the information that was collected and sent. Little comparison and contrasts are made, because of the varying years the information was reported, along with possible different data collection procedures from year to year. Details: Helena, MT: Montana Board of Crime Control, 2010. 222p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 9, 2011 at: http://www.mbcc.mt.gov/data/SAC/Tribal/NativeCrimeInNorthwest.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.mbcc.mt.gov/data/SAC/Tribal/NativeCrimeInNorthwest.pdf Shelf Number: 121681 Keywords: American IndiansCrime RatesCrime StatisticsIndigenous PeoplesRace and Crime |
Author: Guberek, Tamy Title: Assessing Claims of Declining Lethal Violence in Colombia Summary: In this exploratory research note, we assess recent claims that violence in Colombia declined after the demobilization of paramilitaries. We show that these claims rest both on the overinterpretation of unadjusted data and on unsound causal inferences. We conclude that multiple data sources are needed to estimate the true rates of violence in Colombia after demobilization, and we suggest avenues for further research toward this end. Details: Palo Alto, CA: The Benetech Initiative, 2008. 14p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 17, 2011 at: http://www.hrdag.org/resources/publications/CO-PN-CCJ-match-working-paper.pdf Year: 2008 Country: Colombia URL: http://www.hrdag.org/resources/publications/CO-PN-CCJ-match-working-paper.pdf Shelf Number: 121735 Keywords: Crime RatesViolence (Colombia)Violent Crime |
Author: Kneebone, Elizabeth Title: City and Suburban Crime Trends in Metropolitan America Summary: The impact of crime on general well-being is profound. Those most directly impacted are the victims of crime. By one estimate, the combination of direct monetary losses and the costs of pain and suffering among crime victims in the U.S. amounts to nearly 6 percent of gross domestic product. Beyond these direct costs are substantial indirect costs associated with reducing the threat of crime. In 2006, federal, state, and local government criminal justice expenditures amounted to $214 billion. Many households pay significant premiums, either in terms of housing prices or commute costs, to live in neighborhoods with lower probabilities of victimization. Many also purchase security devices and insurance to minimize the likelihood and costs of being criminally victimized. Moreover, fear of crime often impacts the most mundane personal decisions, such as whether to walk down a given street or through a particular neighborhood, whether to let one’s children play outside, or whether to leave one’s home after dark. While all communities are affected by crime and the criminal justice system, residents in large urban areas are particularly impacted. Moreover, within large metropolitan areas, the residents of poor, largely minority neighborhoods suffer disproportionately. Crime rates are generally higher in more urbanized areas and the young, male, and minority residents of the nation’s central cities contribute disproportionately to the growing prison population. Yet, in recent decades, U.S. crime rates have fallen sharply. By 2008 the sexual assault rate stood at only 23 percent of its peak value in 1991, while robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault had fallen to 37, 33, and 42 percent of their 1991 levels, respectively. Similarly, homicide rates dropped from 10.5 per 100,000 in 1991 to 6.2 per 100,000 by 2006. Between 1991 and 2008 the number of burglaries per 1,000 households declined by 59 percent, while rates of theft and motor vehicle theft dropped by 62 and 70 percent, respectively. Though much has been written about the precipitous declines in crime since the 1990s, less is known about trends within the nation’s big cities and suburbs. Two-thirds of the nation’s population lives in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, but crime levels vary greatly across — and even within — these regions. To what extent have decreases in crime been shared across these communities? Moreover, crime fell over a period that coincided with considerable changes in the makeup and distribution of the country’s metropolitan population. Do those changes help explain the steep declines in community-level crime? In this paper, we explore these questions by analyzing crime data compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and data from the U.S. Census Bureau to provide a geographically-focused assessment of how crime rates have changed between 1990 and 2008. Specifically, we analyze data for the roughly 5,400 communities located within the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. We estimate changes in metropolitan crime, as well as city and suburban trends within these regions. We then consider the relationship between community-level demographic characteristics and crime, and analyze how those relationships may have changed over time. Details: Wsahington, DC: Brookings Institute, 2011. 23p. Source: Internet Resource: Metropolitan Opportunity Series: Accessed July 12, 2011 at: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/0526_metropolitan_crime_kneebone_raphael/0526_metropolitan_crime_kneebone_raphael.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/0526_metropolitan_crime_kneebone_raphael/0526_metropolitan_crime_kneebone_raphael.pdf Shelf Number: 122028 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends (U.S.)Neighborhoods and CrimeSuburban CrimeUrban Crime |
Author: Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha Title: An Analysis of the Factors Determining Crime in England and Wales: A Quantile Regression Approach Summary: We examine how socio-economic and police enforcement variables affect property and violent crimes at different points of the crime distribution in England and Wales over the period 1992-2007. By using data from 43 police force areas, we examine how the effect of real earnings, unemployment, crime detection rate, income inequality and proportion of young people varies across high and low crime areas. Six crime categories are examined - burglary, theft and handling, fraud and forgery, violence against the person, robbery, and sexual assault. Using a quantile regression model, we find that there are statistically significant differences in the impact of explanatory variables on various crime rates for low and high crime areas. For example, not only does unemployment increase crime but it does so more in high crime areas. Higher detection rates reduce crime rates and the effect is stronger in low crime areas. There are also differences in distributional impact on crime rates for real earnings, income inequality and proportion of young people. Thus, our work points to the need to look beyond the usual mean effects of policing and socio-economic factors on crime and consider their impact on the entire distribution of crime rates. This will enable us to tailor policies that are particularly effective at different points in the crime distribution. Further, given the differential impact of earnings and unemployment across high and low crime areas this provides insight into why paradoxically recessions may have no impact on crime or even lower it. Details: Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham, Department of Economics, 2011. 17p. Source: Internet Resource: Department of Economics Discussion Paper 11-12: Accessed July 18, 2011 at: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/11-12.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United Kingdom URL: Shelf Number: 122083 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsEconomicsPovertySocioeconomic Conditions and CrimeUnemployment |
Author: Brennan, Shannon Title: Police-Reported Crime Statistics in Canada, 2010 Summary: Police-reported crime statistics in Canada, 2010: Highlights include • In 2010, police-reported crime in Canada continued its downward trend. Both the volume and severity of crime fell from the previous year, down 5% and 6% respectively. • There were approximately 77,000 fewer police-reported crimes in 2010 than in 2009. Decreases among property crimes — namely theft under $5,000, mischief, motor vehicle thefts, and break and enters — accounted for the majority of the decline. Police also reported decreases in homicide, attempted murder, robbery and assault. • The 2010 crime rate, which measures the volume of police-reported crime, reached its lowest level since the early 1970s. The Crime Severity Index, which measures the seriousness of crime, dropped to its lowest point since this measure first became available in 1998. • The severity of crime decreased or remained stable across the country in 2010, with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Alberta and British Columbia reported the largest declines, down 8% and 7% respectively. • Most of Canada’s census metropolitan areas, including the ten largest, reported decreases in crime severity. Despite an 8% decline, Regina continued to report the highest index in the country followed by the other western cities of Saskatoon and Winnipeg. • Canada’s Violent Crime Severity Index fell 6%, the fourth consecutive annual decline and the largest drop seen in more than a decade. The decline in the rate of violent crime was more modest, down 3%. • With 554 homicides in 2010, the homicide rate dropped 10% and reached its lowest point since the mid-1960s. The rate of attempted murders also fell (-14%) and reached its lowest point since 1977. • Following three consecutive annual increases, the rate of impaired driving offences dropped 6% in 2010. The rate of impaired driving has been generally declining since peaking in 1981. • In contrast to most types of crime, increases were reported in the rates of child pornography offences (+36%), firearm offences (+11%), criminal harassment (+5%), and sexual assault (+5%). • Drug offences also increased in 2010 (+10%), driven primarily by a higher number of cannabis offences. The overall increase continues the upward trend that began in the early 1990s. • Both the rate and severity of youth crime decreased in 2010, down 7% and 6% respectively. The severity of violent crime committed by youth also decreased, down 4% from 2009. • There were 56 youth accused of homicide in 2010, 23 fewer than in 2009, resulting in a 29% decline in the rate. Declines were also seen in the rates of youth accused for many other offences in 2010, including motor vehicle thefts (-14%), serious assault (-12%) and break and enters (-10%). Robbery was one of the few crimes committed by youth to increase in 2010, up 2%. Details: Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2011. 43p. Source: Internet Resource: Juristat Article: Accessed July 26, 2011 at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2011001/article/11523-eng.pdf Year: 2011 Country: Canada URL: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2011001/article/11523-eng.pdf Shelf Number: 122166 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics (Canada) |
Author: Arias, Enrique Desmond Title: Introductory Handbook on Policing Urban Space Summary: Over the past 20 years, Governments and civic actors have focused substantially on the question of crime and urban law enforcement efforts. It has come to be recognized that crime is unevenly distributed throughout the world. In certain countries, such as Guatemala, the homicide rate is higher than 30 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, whereas in many other countries, including in Western Europe or South- East Asia, it is more than 10 times lower. Important disparities are also observed between and within regions: in Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Morocco have homicide rates that are lower than 3 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, far lower than those in South Africa. Discrepancies can also be significant within the same country. In Colombia, for example, the city of Tunja (population 150,000) has a rate of 7 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, compared with 128 per 100,000 inhabitants in the city of San José del Guaviare (population 50,000). Finally, within the same city, homicide rates can vary significantly from one neighbourhood to another. In Rio de Janeiro, for example, rates vary from 2 to 12 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, depending on the neighbourhood. A recent statistical report of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) shows stable or decreasing global homicide trends over the period 2003-2008 for the majority of countries for which data is available in the Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania. Exceptions to the trend include a number of Caribbean and Central and South American countries, including Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica and Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), which show significant increases in homicide rates. Research suggests that this may be due, in part, to increases in transnational organized crime, illicit drug trafficking and gang activity. In addition, a slight increase was seen between 2007 and 2008 in a few countries in Europe, demonstrating a need for continued vigilance and effective crime prevention action. Unfortunately, data for a number of countries in Africa and in parts of Asia are not robust enough to provide a clear picture for a useful analysis. Intentional homicide (the intentional killing of one person by another) is one of the most serious forms of crime and a key indicator of violent crime levels in a given country or region. intelligence-led policing, situational crime prevention, the “broken windows” theory and the strategy on crime prevention through environmental design. It also addresses broader principles of managing urban space to control crime and strategies for evaluating crime control programmes. The Handbook includes references to efforts to control crime in an array of countries, including Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America. The overall objective of the Handbook is therefore to outline the new, innovative techniques and to explain how they have been applied to address crime problems in low- and middle-income countries. The various programmes, policies and approaches described here can provide law enforcement policymakers, front-line officers, urban planners and other city authorities as well as civil society organizations with basic information about an array of strategies and good governance practices to control crime in rapidly growing cities in low- and middle-income countries. Details: New York: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2011. 118p. Source: Internet Resource: Criminal Justice Handbook Series: Accessed August 24, 2011 at: http://www.unodc.org/documents/justice-and-prison-reform/crimeprevention/11-80387_ebook.pdf Year: 2011 Country: International URL: http://www.unodc.org/documents/justice-and-prison-reform/crimeprevention/11-80387_ebook.pdf Shelf Number: 122479 Keywords: Crime PreventionCrime RatesHomicidesLaw EnforcementPolicingUrban Crime |
Author: Virginia. Department of Criminal Justice Services, Criminal Justice Research Center Title: Virginia Crime Trends 2000 ‐ 2009 Summary: This document presents Virginia index crime and drug arrests rates from two different sources: Crime In The United States (U.S.), by the U.S. Department of Justice Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS) Criminal Justice Research Center. Both agencies use criminal incident reports submitted by local law enforcement agencies to the Incident‐Based Crime Reporting Repository System managed by the Virginia Department of State Police (VSP) to calculate Virginia crime and arrest rates, but the rates reported by each differ slightly. The differences are largely attributed to: (1) Different methodologies used to estimate missing or underreported crime or arrest data. (2) Different sources for population data used to calculate offense rates. FBI calculates population estimates using U.S. Census Bureau estimated data and population growth rates. DCJS uses estimates produced by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. (3) The FBI may "freeze" the crime data later than DCJS resulting in small differences in the number of crimes used to calculate the rates. For valid comparisons, any discussion of Virginia crime and arrest rates versus national rates or rates of the other states use Virginia rates reported by the FBI in Crime In The U.S. Any discussion of crime and arrest rates for regions or localities within Virginia use rates calculated by DCJS. The report includes a summary of rate trends from 2000 through 2009 for violent index crime, property index crime, and drug arrests, followed by numerous charts, graphs, and tables that break down the data for each category. Details: Richmond, VA: Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services, 2010. 31p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 20, 2011 at: http://www.dcjs.virginia.gov/research/documents/VirginiaCrimeTrends2000-2009.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.dcjs.virginia.gov/research/documents/VirginiaCrimeTrends2000-2009.pdf Shelf Number: 123068 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics (Virginia) |
Author: Nunley, John M. Title: Demographic Change, Macroeconomic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the United States, 1934 to 2006 Summary: Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age-crime hypothesis. By examining a longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s,, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time. However, changes in the misery index — the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates — significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle of the 1980s. Details: Auburn, AL: Auburn University, 2010. 20p. Department of Economics, Source: Internet Resource: Auburn University Department of Economics Working Paper Series: Accessed October 22, 2011 at: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2010/2010-04.pdf Year: 0 Country: United States URL: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2010/2010-04.pdf Shelf Number: 123093 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics and CrimeHomicideMurderUnemployment and Crime |
Author: Rubin, Jennifer Title: Development of a European Crime Report: Improving safety and justice with existing crime and criminal justice data Summary: Understanding crime in the European Union (EU) is a complex endeavour. National differences in how crime data are collected and reported are important, albeit partial, explanations for the complexity. To improve cross-national comparisons and benchmarking in crime and criminal justice policy, the European Commission Directorate-General for Home Affairs commissioned RAND Europe to create a framework for developing a European Crime Report (ECR). In particular, RAND Europe scoped data availability issues and current projects and information that could feed into an ECR. Furthermore, a variety of stakeholders were interviewed to provide a more comprehensive, reliable assessment of opportunities and challenges to developing an ECR. Research uncovered it is not necessary to collect new data to begin developing an ECR. What is essential, however, is to use available data through "Smart Aggregation", a term we introduce referring to the provision of contextual information highlighting definitional differences in a more intelligent way. Smart Aggregation brings together existing CCJ data and reporting in a manner that facilitates informed comparisons and discourages less useful comparisons and analysis. Three decision areas identified as noteworthy for enhancing sustainability of an ECR are: funding streams, model of implementation, and dissemination and communication strategy. The report develops recommendations on how to address each of these key decisions areas with a possible timeline for implementation over the course of three years. The report also provides an indicative table of contents for a report, a website snapshot to disseminate the report and a method for generating bespoke reports for users. Details: Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2011. 164p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 25, 2011 at: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR936.html Year: 2011 Country: Europe URL: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR936.html Shelf Number: 123121 Keywords: Crime MeasurementCrime RatesCrime StatisticsCriminal Justice Systems (Europe) |
Author: Ringland, Clare Title: Is the Assault Rate in NSW Higher Now Than It Was During the 1990s? Summary: The rate of police-recorded assault more than doubled in NSW between 1990 and 2007. This bulletin investigates whether the increase was due to a genuine increase in violence or an increase in the amount and/or type of violent behaviour coming to police attention. Trends and patterns in police-recorded assault from 1995 to 2007 are supplemented with crime victim survey data, hospitalisations data and a selection of narratives for assault incidents. Over the period, rates of assault increased for both males and females and for all age groups. Increases occurred in both aggravated and common assault, assault with a weapon and without, in all statistical divisions and premise types. These trends in police-recorded assault, supported by increases in hospitalisation and victim survey data, suggest a real increase in violence. However, less serious police-recorded assaults (e.g. common assault and assault without a weapon) have increased at a greater rate than more serious assaults, and more recent assault narratives included a greater proportion of assaults with less serious actions. In addition, the increase in hospitalisations for assault was small in comparison to increases in police-recorded assault and crime survey victimisation rates. Thus, it is likely that the increase in assault was due not only to an increase in violence, but also to an increase in public awareness of assault and the increased willingness of victims and third parties to report, and/or police willingness to record, incidents as assault. Published by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Details: Sydney: New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2009. 12p. Source: Internet Resource: Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice, no. 127; Accessed November 2, 2011 at: http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/cjb127.pdf/$file/cjb127.pdf Year: 2009 Country: Australia URL: http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/cjb127.pdf/$file/cjb127.pdf Shelf Number: 123215 Keywords: Assaults (Australia)Crime RatesCrime TrendsPolice ReportingVictimizationViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Title: Monitoring the impact of economic crisis on crime Summary: Within the context of the United Nations Global Pulse initiative on monitoring the impact of crisis on vulnerable populations, this report presents the results of a unique cross-national analysis that aims to investigate the possible effects of economic stress on crime. Using police-recorded crime data for the crimes of intentional homicide, robbery and motor vehicle theft, from fifteen country or city contexts across the world, the analysis examines in particular the period of global financial crisis in 2008/2009. As economic crisis may occur over a relatively short timescale, this period, as well as – in many cases – up to 20 years previously, are examined using high frequency (monthly) crime and economic data. The report finds that, whether in times of economic crisis or non-crisis, economic factors play an important role in the evolution of crime trends. Out of a total of fifteen countries examined, statistical modelling identifies an economic predictor for at least one crime type in twelve countries (80 percent), suggesting some overall association between economic changes and crime. In eleven of the fifteen countries examined, economic indicators showed significant changes suggestive of a period of economic crisis in 2008/2009. Both visual inspection of data series and statistical modelling suggest that in eight of these eleven ‘crisis’ countries, changes in economic factors were associated with changes in crime, leading to identifiable crime ‘peaks’ during the time of crisis. Violent property crime types such as robbery appeared most affected during times of crisis, with up to two-fold increases in some contexts during a period of economic stress. However, in some contexts, increases in homicide and motor vehicle theft were also observed. These findings are consistent with criminal motivation theory, which suggests that economic stress may increase the incentive for individuals to engage in illicit behaviours. In no case where it was difficult to discern a peak in crime was any decrease in crime observed. As such, the available data do not support a criminal opportunity theory that decreased levels of production and consumption may reduce some crime types, such as property crime, through the generation of fewer potential crime targets. For each country/city a number of individual crimes and economic variables were analyzed. Across all combinations, a significant association between an economic factor and a crime type was identified in around 47 percent of individual combinations. For each country, different combinations of crime and economic predictors proved to be significant. Among the two methods used to analyze the links between economic and crime factors (visualization and statistical modelling), different combinations of factors were found to be significant and in five cases the two methods identified the same variables. Three out of these five cases represented city contexts rather than national contexts. This may indicate that associations between crime and economic factors are best examined at the level of the smallest possible geographic unit. Where an association between one or more economic variables and crime outcomes were identified by statistical modelling, the model frequently indicated a lag time between changes in the economic variable and resultant impact on crime levels. The average lag time in the contexts examined was around four and half months. In this respect, it should be noted that the relationship between crime and economy is not necessarily uni-directional. Whilst there are theoretical arguments for why changes in economic conditions may affect crime, it could also be the case that crime itself impacts upon economic and developmental outcomes, such as when very high violent crime levels dissuade investment. During the statistical modelling process, crime was set as the ‘outcome’ variable and economic data as the ‘independent’ variable. As such, the model was not used to investigate the converse relationship – whether changes in crime could also help explain economic outcomes. The statistical model proved successful at forecasting possible changes in crime for a number of crime typecountry/ city contexts. Forecasting for a period of three months using a statistical model with economic predictors proved possible with reasonable accuracy (both in terms of direction and magnitude) in a number of different contexts, including both in times of crisis and non-crisis. Many of the forecasts are sufficiently accurate to be of value in a practical scenario. Crime forecasts sometimes led, however, to underestimation of crime changes, suggesting that modelling of crime changes is not optimal when based on economic predictors alone. Indeed, economic changes are not the only factor that may impact levels of crime. The presence of youth gangs, weapons availability, the availability and level of protection of potential targets, drug and alcohol consumption and the effectiveness of law enforcement activity all play a significant role in enabling or restraining overall crime levels. Although the challenges remain significant, this report demonstrates that – with comparatively few resources – a lot may be learned from the application of analytical techniques to existing data. Continued methodological development, including the creation of an online data reporting ‘portal’, as well as the strengthening of exchange of information and experience, between countries, has the potential to lay the foundation of a strong ‘early-warning’ system. The analysis reported here does not prove the existence of relationships between economic factors and crime. It does provide strong indications that certain associations are present, and that much may be gained from further investigation. If the impact of economic stress on crime trends can be further understood, and even forecasted in the short-term, then there is the potential to gain much through policy development and crime prevention action. Details: Vienna, Austria: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 14, 2012 at http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/GIVAS_Final_Report.pdf Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/GIVAS_Final_Report.pdf Shelf Number: 124137 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime TrendsEconomics and CrimeHomicideMotor Vehicle TheftRobbery |
Author: Blades, Rachel Title: Care - a stepping stone to custody? The views of children in care on the links between care, offending and custody Summary: Less than 1% of all children in England were looked after at March 2011. Compare this with the fact that up to half the children held in young offender institutions are, or have been previously, looked after and you need to ask the question: is care a stepping stone to custody? If so, how and why does this happen and what can be done to help children in care avoid getting into trouble and ending up in custody? Looked after children and care leavers have long been over-represented in our prisons. Research published by the Social Exclusion Unit in 2002 suggested that 27% of the adult prison population had once been in care. Annual surveys of 15-18 year olds in prison suggest that anywhere between a quarter and a half have been in care at some point previously. This is likely to be an under-estimate. Research on children in the youth justice system generally, and those who end up in custody in particular, has demonstrated the links between offending and vulnerability. A census of every child imprisoned over a 6 month period in 2008 highlighted this in stark detail: 76% had an absent father; 47% had run away or absconded; 39% had been subject to a child protection plan and/or experienced abuse or neglect; 27% had been or were looked after; and 13% had experienced the death of a parent or sibling. For children in care, these indices of disadvantage are likely to be heightened, as we know three quarters of looked after children are in care as a result of abuse, neglect or family dysfunction. Concerns at the involvement of looked after children in the youth justice system are not new. Government statistics have consistently shown that rates of known offending by children in care far outstrip those of their peers, and practice in some placements, especially children’s homes, has been criticised for bringing children in care into the justice system unnecessarily. In the year ending March 2010, 7.9% were given a reprimand, warning or conviction, compared with just 3% of all children. Yet, as we have seen, abuse and family breakdown are by far the most common reasons why children are taken into care, rather than offending. If we are better to understand the relationship between care and offending, and tackle the disproportionate number of children in custody who are, or have been, looked after, we need to understand the factors affecting looked after children’s chances of offending, and the relationship between them. We believe children with direct experience of being looked after are best placed to identify, and comment on, aspects of the care system which protect against, and those that increase the risk of, criminalisation. This research seeks to place the voice of looked after children at the heart of the debate on care and crime and proposes a blueprint for preventing offending which draws on their contributions. This report presents the findings of research carried out by the National Children’s Bureau (NCB) Research Centre to explore the views of children with relevant experiences. The research was commissioned by Out of Trouble, the Prison Reform’s Trust’s five year programme to reduce child and youth imprisonment, which is supported by The Diana, Princess of Wales Memorial Fund. This qualitative study, set in the context of current research and policy, involved 23 indepth face to face interviews with children in care who were aged between 13 and 17 years old. Their experience of, and involvement in, the youth justice system varied. Some had no formal experience, having never been cautioned or convicted. Others had, and the majority were either in custody at the time of interview (including on remand) or had been previously. In partnership with VOICE (www.voiceyp.org), a children’s advocacy organisation for children living away from home, we set up an advisory group to support the research, more details of which can be found on page 63. This group of ten young people in care and care leavers helped to guide the research at three important points: design, analysis, and reporting. Details: London: Prison Reform Trust, 2011. 78p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 22, 2012 at http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/careasteppingstonetocustody.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/careasteppingstonetocustody.pdf Shelf Number: 124233 Keywords: Child Abuse and NeglectChild ProtectionCrime RatesFoster CareJuvenile DetentionJuvenile Justice System (U.K.)Juvenile Offenders (U.K.) |
Author: Kubrin, Charis E. Title: Does Fringe Banking Exacerbate Neighborhood Crime Rates? Social Disorganization and the Ecology of Payday Lending Summary: Payday lenders have become the banker of choice for many residents of poor and working class neighborhoods in recent years. The substantial costs that customers of these fringe bankers incur have long been documented. Yet there is reason to believe there are broader community costs that all residents pay in those neighborhoods where payday lenders are concentrated. One such cost may be an increase in crime. In a case study of Seattle, Washington, a city that has seen a typical increase in the number of payday lenders, we find that a concentration of payday lending leads to higher violent crime rates, controlling on a range of factors traditionally associated with neighborhood crime. Social disorganization theory provides a theoretical framework that accounts for this relationship. The findings suggest important policy recommendations and directions for future research that could ameliorate these costs. Details: Unpublished Paper, 2009. 43p. Source: Working Paper: Internet Resource: Accessed March 10, 2012 at http://ancsaragreen.org/Payday.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: http://ancsaragreen.org/Payday.pdf Shelf Number: 124418 Keywords: BankingCrime RatesNeighborhoods and CrimeSocial Disorganization |
Author: Campbell, Michael Title: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Crime Summary: In recent decades, crime rates have increased dramatically in many Western countries and crime has become a major issue of public policy, especially in the United States. A very large literature has developed on the general causes of, and the impact of public policy on, crime. Yet no consensus has emerged on quite basic issues such as, for example, the effect of incentives, both positive and negative, on crime. Leading conservative criminologists such as Wilson (1975) argue the case for the effectiveness of the policies of deterrence, and even though his original position has softened somewhat (Wilson 1994), the conclusions which he draws from the evidence are still quite different from those of liberals such as Currie (1985, for example). Economic analysis of the phenomenon of crime was stimulated in the late 1960s by the paper by Becker (1968). In this framework, agents in the market for crime - for example, criminals and the law enforcement agencies - are assumed to act in accordance with the rules of optimising behaviour. They are able to both gather and process substantial amounts of information efficiently in order to form expectations on the likely costs and benefits associated with different courses of action, and to respond to incentives and disincentives in an appropriately rational manner. This is in marked contrast to the tenets of conventional criminology (for example, Nuttall 1994 and Gottfredson and Hirshi 1995), in which the typical criminal is portrayed as having difficulty identifying and assessing alternative courses of action, rarely thinking through the consequences of actions, and not thinking about possible punishments. But even amongst research carried out within the common framework of economic theory few clear conclusions emerge. Ehrlich (1996), in an excellent exposition of the approach to crime based upon such theory notes that the empirical literature is 'voluminous'. However, he states that on the crucial question of the impact of positive and negative incentives on crime, 'it would be premature to view the empirical evidence as conclusive'. Ehrlich notes that the quantitative estimates of such effects vary, even to the extent of a minority of studies failing to find any effect at all, and part of his paper is devoted to a discussion of the potential reasons for this, not least of which is the intrinsic limitations of crime statistics. Indeed, an awareness of the often seriously unreliable nature of the statistics is one thing on which most economists and criminologists find common ground. In this paper, we offer a different methodological approach to the process by which crime rates spread (or contract) over time. Our aim is not to account for the path over time followed by any particular set of crime rates, whatever the degree of reliability which might be attached to any available data. In principle, the model could be calibrated to a particular data series, but our purpose is to give a general description of how crime rates change over time. Details: Unpublished Paper, Undated. 26p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 10, 2012 at http://www.paulormerod.com/pdf/CRIME42.pdf Year: 0 Country: United States URL: http://www.paulormerod.com/pdf/CRIME42.pdf Shelf Number: 124433 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends |
Author: Rosevear, Lisa Title: The association between birth cohort size and fluctuating crime levels: A Western Australian case study Summary: Official Australian crime statistics indicate that individual offence levels peak around 15–24 years of age and decline thereafter (eg see AIC 2011). Change in this general age–crime trend could be expected to coincide with change in age-related demographic phenomena (South & Messner 2000). This paper is one of two by this author that investigate the impact of structural ageing on crime patterns. A case study of the South Australian population (Rosevear 2011) confirmed that total crime levels declined in that state when the proportion of young people in the population declined. In this paper, another aspect of the association between crime and demography is considered—age-specific offence rates and birth cohorts. Australia has experienced waves of differently sized birth cohorts (Jackson 2001; McDonald & Kippen 1999), yet the impact of these waves on long-term crime trends is frequently overlooked. This paper uses a case study of the Western Australian population to illustrate the extent to which Australia’s largest (‘baby bust’) cohort have engaged in higher levels of criminal activity compared with smaller birth cohorts. Details: Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2011. 7p. Source: Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice No. 434: Internet Resource: Accessed March 11, 2012 at http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/0/0/5/%7B005BF246-B350-401E-8260-455B99217E90%7Dtandi434.pdf Year: 2011 Country: Australia URL: http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/0/0/5/%7B005BF246-B350-401E-8260-455B99217E90%7Dtandi434.pdf Shelf Number: 124442 Keywords: Crime RatesDemographic Trends (Australia) |
Author: Jones, Craig Title: The effect of arrest and imprisonment on crime Summary: Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the extent to which the probability of arrest, the probability of imprisonment and imprisonment duration impact on property and violent crime rates in New South Wales, Australia. Method: A dynamic panel data model with fixed Local Government Area and time effects was adopted to explore this, while adjusting for potential confounders of the relationship between arrest, imprisonment and crime. The first-differenced generalised method of moments was used to estimate the model parameters. Results: One per cent increases in arrest rates for property and violent crime are estimated to produce 0.10 per cent and 0.19 per cent decreases in property and violent crime, respectively. If the one per cent increase in arrest rates is sustained, the long-run effect is estimated to be 0.14 and 0.30 per cent decreases for property and violent crime, respectively. The short-run elasticities for imprisonment probabilities were smaller, (-0.09 and -0.11), as were the long-run elasticities (-0.12 and -0.17), for property and violent crime, respectively. There was no evidence that increases in the length of imprisonment has any short or long-run impact on crime rates. Conclusion: The criminal justice system plays a significant role in preventing crime. Some criminal justice variables, however, exert much stronger effects than others. Increasing arrest rates is likely to have the largest impact, followed by increasing the likelihood of receiving a prison sentence. Increasing the length of stay in prison beyond current levels does not appear to impact on the crime rate after accounting for increases in arrest and imprisonment likelihood. Policy makers should focus more attention on strategies that increase the risk of arrest and less on strategies that increase the severity of punishment. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2012. 20p. Source: Crime and Justice Bulletin: Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice No. 158: Internet Resource: Accessed March 13, 2012 at http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/cjb158.pdf/$file/cjb158.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Australia URL: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/cjb158.pdf/$file/cjb158.pdf Shelf Number: 124519 Keywords: Arrests (Australia)Crime RatesHeroinImprisonment (Australia) |
Author: Soares, Rodrigo T. Title: Organization and Information in the Fight against Crime: An Evaluation of the Integration of Police Forces in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil Summary: This paper explores the experience of information sharing, coordination, and integration of actions of the Civil and Military Polices in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in the context of the IGESP program. The IGESP is based on the introduction of information management systems and organizational changes akin to those associated with COMPSTAT. All the evidence presented points to a causal effect of the IGESP on crime. The most conservative estimates indicate a reduction of 24% in property crimes and 13% in personal crimes. There is also evidence that the IGESP is associated with improved police response, measured by apprehension of weapons and clearance rates. We present one of the first set of causal estimates – with a clear identification strategy – of the impact of COMPSTAT-like programs. The results suggest that the coordination and informational gains represented by the program may constitute a first-order factor in a successful policy for fighting crime. Details: Unpublished paper, 2010. 43p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 21, 2012 at: http://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp5270.html Year: 2010 Country: Brazil URL: http://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp5270.html Shelf Number: 124621 Keywords: CompstatCrime RatesPolice (Brazil)Police ReformPolice TechnologyPolicing |
Author: Stotzer, Rebecca Title: Comparison of Hate Crime Rates Across Protected and Unprotected Groups Summary: Sexual orientation and gender identity are not currently covered by federal hate crime laws. This analysis compares victimization rates for lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals with groups already covered by hate crime laws. Results indicate that the hate crime rate against lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals is comparable to the rate of hate crimes against already protected groups. While the National Coalition of Anti-Violence Programs reports an average of 213 hate crimes per year, the federal government has no system in place for documenting or collecting these statistics. This discrepancy indicates a need for including gender identity in hate crime tracking laws, and extending legislative protection to lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people. Details: The Williams Institute, 2007. 4p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 15, 2012 at http://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/Stotzer-Comparison-Hate-Crime-June-2007.pdf Year: 2007 Country: United States URL: http://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/Stotzer-Comparison-Hate-Crime-June-2007.pdf Shelf Number: 124970 Keywords: Bias-Motivated CrimesCrime RatesCrime StatisticsDiscriminationHate CrimeLegislation |
Author: Stahnke, Tad Title: 2008 Hate Crime Survey Summary: Human Rights First’s 2008 Hate Crime Survey—our second annual study—is a review of the rising tide of hate crime covering the region from the Far East of the Russian Federation and the Central Asian states across Europe to North America: the 56 participating states of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Human Rights First continues to document and analyze the reality of violent hate crime. We have reviewed available reports on violence motivated by prejudice and hatred, including the findings of the few official monitoring systems that provide meaningful statistical information. This data—combined with the findings of nongovernmental monitoring organizations as well as media reporting—provides important insights into the nature and incidence of violent hate crimes. Our aim is to raise the profile of these insidious crimes and the challenges they pose to societies that are becoming increasingly diverse. Hate crimes are everyday occurrences that result in broken windows and burnt out homes, mental distress and bodily harm—sometimes fatal. Hate crimes threaten whole communities who identify with the victim based on race, religion, or other attributes, leaving many to live in fear and alienated from the larger society. This report seeks to overcome official indifference and indecision in the fight against such crime. In the first part of this report, we examine six facets of hate crime in sections on Violence Based on Racism and Xenophobia, Antisemitic Violence, Violence Against Muslims, Violence Based on Religious Intolerance, Violence Against Roma, and Violence Based on Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Bias. In the second part, we assess government responses to violent hate crimes in sections on Systems of Monitoring and Reporting and The Framework of Criminal Law. Although not included in this compilation, the 2008 Hate Crime Survey also includes separate sections on the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where hate crime has been on the rise and where governments have not responded adequately. No state is immune from the prejudice and bigotry that stand behind bias-motivated violence. A Country Panorama section profiles hate crime cases from 30 countries and includes in-depth descriptions of hate crime in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—three countries where considerable efforts have been undertaken to combat hate crimes. Similarly, there has generally been a vigorous government response to hate crime in the United States, even though the problem continues. In a separate substantive section on the U.S., we outline recommendations to enhance the government’s response. These sections are available at the Fighting Discrimination website: www.humanrightsfirst.org/discrimination. Human Rights First is concerned that governments are not doing enough to combat violent hate crimes. In this survey, we offer a Ten-Point Plan for governments to strengthen their response. In particular, we are calling on governments to establish systems of official monitoring and data collection to fill the hate crime information gap. We are likewise urging them to improve criminal law and law enforcement procedures required to combat hate crimes. Stronger laws that expressly address violent hate crimes are necessary to more effectively deter, detect, and hold perpetrators accountable. International organizations also have an important role to play, and this Survey provides Recommendations for Strengthening the OSCE, in particular by advancing the organization’s tolerance and nondiscrimination agenda—of which combating hate crime is an important component. Details: New York: Human Rights First, 2008. 186p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 15, 2012 at http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/FD-081103-hate-crime-survey-2008.pdf Year: 2008 Country: United States URL: http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/FD-081103-hate-crime-survey-2008.pdf Shelf Number: 124972 Keywords: Bias CrimeCrime RatesDiscriminationHate CrimeViolent Crime |
Author: Tilley, Nick Title: An overview of attrition patterns Summary: This analysis was undertaken as background to a study that tracked investigation and attrition processes in detail across 3,000 volume crime cases randomly selected from eight high-crime family BCUs, and should be read alongside the report of that study (Burrows et al., 2005). The primary purpose of this paper is to outline the patterns of detection for four volume crime types across England and Wales – domestic burglary; non-domestic burglary; theft of motor vehicles (TOMV) and theft from motor vehicles (TFMV). These four crime types were the focus of the sister study and will be described as ‘volume crimes’ in this report. The analysis that follows is principally undertaken by force and by Basic Command Unit (BCU) family. The paper also identifies some of the factors that seem to explain variations in attrition patterns, in particular in the proportions of offences with sanction detections excluding offences ‘taken into consideration’ (TICs). Broad trends and patterns in detection rates are summarised annually in the publication Crime in England and Wales. This has generally shown a downward trend in detection rates since 1980. As Simmons and Dodd (2003) put it, “in simple terms, the number of detections achieved has failed to keep pace with the rise in recorded crime…or when crime numbers have fallen, the number of detections has fallen more”. The overall detection rate stood at 23.5 per cent in 2002/3, which was very slightly higher than the rate for the previous year (23.4%). The 2002/03 figure was however unadjusted for the effect of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS), which is thought to have depressed the detection rate. In 2004/05, the overall detection rate stood at 26 per cent (Nicholas et al., 2005). Crime in England and Wales summarises the overall variation in detection rates between forces, but does not provide a detailed comparison because it recognises that the ‘crime mix’ differences between forces limit the value of overall detection rates as a good comparative measure of police performance (this factor was identified as the primary influence on variations in overall detection rates by Burrows and Tarling, 1982). On this basis it recommends that comparisons are better directed at detections for particular offence groups, which is the focus of the current exercise. Details: London: Home Office, 2005. 26p. Source: Home Office Online Report 45/05: Internet Resource: Accessed May 13, 2012 at http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/rdsolr4505.pdf Year: 2005 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/rdsolr4505.pdf Shelf Number: 125251 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends |
Author: Wing, Janeena Title: Domestic Violence in Idaho - A Compilation of Court Filings and Police Reported Incidents: 2005-2010 Summary: Intimate partner violence includes incidents where the offender and victim are related through marriage/common-law, as an ex -spouse, boy/girlfriend, or as same sex partners. In 2010, there were 5,901 victims of reported intimate partner violence in Idaho. Domestic violence, on the other hand, (as defined by Idaho statute) includes incidents where the offender and victim are married, formerly married, or have a child in common. Crimes reported to the Idaho Incident Based Reporting System (IIBRS) do not indicate whether the victim and offender reside within the same household or have a child in common. In addition, IIBRS does not indicate the actual Idaho statute violation that occurred, but rather provides crime types that have been standardized for crime comparison across the nation. To understand the trend of domestic violence in Idaho, this report provides information from both court case filings and police reports (IIBRS data) from 2005 through 2010. Court filings were obtained for all cases of domestic violence assault and battery, attempted strangulation, stalking, domestic violence protection order and no contact order violations between 2005 and 2010. The actual victim/ offender relationship was unknown, but these specific charges were focused on as they are more commonly associated with intimate partners. The outcomes of cases filed related to domestic relationships helps understand how criminal cases are handled by the judicial system. Although IIBRS does not track Idaho code violations, it contains the victim/offender relationship, which was used to determine all crimes occurring between intimate partners and family members between 2005 and 2010. Intimate partner and family member victims are compared against all victims within this report, to understand the characteristics and trends of family violence in Idaho. Details: Boise, ID: Idaho Statistical Analysis Center, 2011. 43p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 4, 2012 at http://www.isp.idaho.gov/pgr/Research/documents/IntimatePartnerViolence.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.isp.idaho.gov/pgr/Research/documents/IntimatePartnerViolence.pdf Shelf Number: 125324 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime TrendsDomestic Violence (Idaho)Family Violence (Idaho)Intimate Partner Violence (Idaho) |
Author: Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha Title: Acquisitive Crime: Imprisonment, Detection and Social Factors Summary: This report measures the impact of several factors determining crime rates in 43 Police Force Areas in England and Wales between 1993 and 2008. They use new local sentencing data released by the Ministry of Justice following a Freedom of Information request. The report estimates that a one-month increase of the average sentence length for each offence type in a typical year would prevent, in the following year: •4,800 recorded burglaries •4,700 recorded frauds The report also estimates the effect of a radical change in the current policy of early release at the half-way stage. If offenders were made to serve two-thirds of their sentence in custody by default rather than the current half, England and Wales would see in the following year: •21,000 fewer recorded burglaries •11,000 fewer recorded frauds Details: London: Civitas, 2012. 15p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 11, 2012 at: http://www.civitas.org.uk/crime/crimeanalysis2012.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.civitas.org.uk/crime/crimeanalysis2012.pdf Shelf Number: 125538 Keywords: Crime RatesImprisonment (U.K.)PunishmentSentencing |
Author: Blomberg, Thomas G. Title: An Analysis of Violent Crime in Palm Beach County and Strategies of Violence Reduction Initiatives in U.S. Cities Summary: The first section of this report provides a comprehensive overview of the crime problem in Palm Beach County with emphasis on violent crimes involving a firearm and murder offenses. In particular, Palm Beach County experienced a significant increase in the number of gun-related crimes of violence and homicide in 2004, especially amongst younger citizens. The second section of the report examines the violence reduction initiatives in other U.S. cities with a focus on their strategies and outcomes. Details: Tallahassee: Florida State University, College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Center for Criminology and Public Policy Research, 2006. 63p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 17, 2012 at: http://www.criminologycenter.fsu.edu/p/pdf/Palm%20Beach%20Report.pdf Year: 2006 Country: United States URL: http://www.criminologycenter.fsu.edu/p/pdf/Palm%20Beach%20Report.pdf Shelf Number: 125654 Keywords: Crime RatesGun ViolenceViolence (Florida)Violent Crime |
Author: Abrahamn, Vinoj Title: The Deteriorating Labour Market Conditions and Crime: An Analysis of Indian States during 2001-2008 Summary: Incidence of crime in India has been mounting at a fast pace , especially during the last decade. Moreover, crime on body seems to be increasing in comparison to crime on property. Economics and Sociology literature on crime attributes labour market as a transmitting institution for crime. This paper is an attempt to understand the issue of crime in India as a socio-economic problem with particular reference to the Indian labour market. I argue that the poor labour market conditions in the Indian economy that has been developing in the recent past may be a prime factor in explaining the spate of rise in crime rates recently. Panel data analysis of Indian states during the period 2001- 2008 show that unemployment and wage inequality are key variables that explains the crime rate in India, especially crime on body. Education similarly seems to reduce property crime rate. Crime also seem to be deterred by an efficient judicial delivery system, however the role of police as a deterrent is ambiguous. Details: Kerala, India: Centre for Development Studies, 2011. 29p. Source: Internet Resource: MPRA Paper No. 31387: Accessed July 24, 2012 at: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31387/2/MPRA_paper_31387.pdf Year: 2011 Country: India URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/31387/2/MPRA_paper_31387.pdf Shelf Number: 125759 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomic ConditionsEmploymentLabor MarketProperty CrimesUnemployment and Crime (India) |
Author: United Nations Economic and Social Council. Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice Title: World Crime Trends and Emerging Issues and Responses in the Field of Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice Summary: The present document was prepared in accordance with the practice established by Economic and Social Council resolution 1990/18. The document provides information on preliminary results from the United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems covering the year 2010, on statistics on trends and patterns in intentional homicide and on the prominent theme of the twenty-first session of the Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice: Violence against migrants, migrant workers and their families. The document also includes an overview of some of the methodological challenges in obtaining crime and criminal justice data and improving their quality. Details: Vienna: United National Economic and Social Council, 2012. 32p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 2, 2012 at: http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Crime-statistics/V1250994.pdf Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Crime-statistics/V1250994.pdf Shelf Number: 125844 Keywords: Crime MeasurementCrime PreventionCrime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends (International)HomicidesImmigrants |
Author: Vivian, Alison Title: Factors Affecting Crime Rates in Indigenous Communities in NSW: Kempsey and Gunnedah Summary: This report is the third and final in a series of reports emerging from fieldwork exploring factors that impact on rates of crime in six communities in NSW with significant Aboriginal populations. The main aim of the research was to identify, and better understand, factors that may contribute to variations in rates of offending between two Aboriginal populations that are demographically comparable but have markedly different crime rates. Kempsey has a higher crime rate and Gunnedah the lower crime rate. Details: Sydney: Jumbunna Indigenous House of Learning, University of Technology, Sydney, 2012. 94p. Source: Accessed August 8, 2012 at: http://www.jumbunna.uts.edu.au/researchareas/newmedia/FINALKempseyGunnedahReport13June2012.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Australia URL: http://www.jumbunna.uts.edu.au/researchareas/newmedia/FINALKempseyGunnedahReport13June2012.pdf Shelf Number: 125907 Keywords: Aboriginals (Australia)Comparative StudiesCrime RatesIndigenous Peoples |
Author: Vivian, Alison Title: Factors Affecting Crime Rates in Indigenous Communities in NSW: A Pilot Study in Bourke and Lightning Ridge Summary: This report outlines the findings of a pilot study undertaken in the communities of Bourke and Lightning Ridge. An earlier pilot study was carried out in Wilcannia and Menindee in 2009. This pilot study was completed with the support of an Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies Research Grant. We were grateful for the support that made the study possible. There are notable differences in the rates of crime between different Aboriginal communities in NSW. While there has been important research undertaken into the characteristics of individual offenders, there is a lack of qualitative research on the factors affecting crime rates in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. In this context, Jumbunna Indigenous House of Learning at the University of Technology Sydney, with support from the NSW Bureau of Crimes Statistics and Research (BOCSAR), is exploring factors that may be considered to have an impact on crime rates being higher in some Aboriginal communities and lower in others. This report is intended to reflect the views of the people that we spoke to in November 2009 and March 2010. Given that our focus is on understanding the political, social, cultural and economic dynamics contributing to crime rates, we interviewed a range of community and organisational representatives and others working in relevant criminal justice and service delivery roles, as a way to better understand the dynamics and experiences of the community as a whole. The findings of this pilot study are preliminary and are by no means comprehensive and we do not pretend that we have captured the views of the entire community. Details: Sydney: Jumbunna Indigenous House of Learning, University of Technology, Sydney, 2010. 72p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 11, 2012 at: http://www.jumbunna.uts.edu.au/pdfs/research/FinalCommunityReportBLNov10.pdf Year: 2010 Country: Australia URL: http://www.jumbunna.uts.edu.au/pdfs/research/FinalCommunityReportBLNov10.pdf Shelf Number: 125972 Keywords: Aboriginals (Australia)Comparative StudiesCrime RatesIndigenous Peoples |
Author: Bowers, James Henry Title: Urban Growth Boundaries: Urban Crime Reduction or Urban Myth? Summary: There has been much research written on the negative aspects associated with sprawl, such as crime, the flight of people and businesses to the suburbs, and resulting inner-city decay. However, there is a dearth of information on the effects of limiting sprawl and crime. The objective of this research was to examine the impact of an urban growth boundary (UGB) that limits uncontrolled sprawl on crime rates in Portland, Oregon. UCR data from 1975-1997 was utilized to measure the impact. Crime impacts were analyzed with time-series analysis for property crime, violent crime, and overall crime indexes. Vancouver, Washington crime data was used as a comparison group. Other smaller cities within the UGB in the Portland area also were analyzed. The results show significant increases in violent, property, and the overall crime rates in Portland. There also were significant increases in crime rates in the comparison city of Vancouver. The smaller cities showed a significant decrease in violent crimes after the implementation of the urban growth boundary, with property crimes increasing slightly. This legal impact study does provide results that can be interpreted through both ecological theories and routine activities theory. It would appear that the benefits of the urban growth boundary may be felt in the Oregon cities surrounding Portland. Details: Indiana, PA: Indiana University of Pennsylvania, 2012. 153p. Source: Dissertation: Internet Resource: Accessed September 23, 2012 at http://dspace.iup.edu/bitstream/handle/2069/715/James%20Henry%20Bowers.pdf?sequence=1 Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://dspace.iup.edu/bitstream/handle/2069/715/James%20Henry%20Bowers.pdf?sequence=1 Shelf Number: 126410 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsRoutine ActivitiesUrban AreasUrban Crime |
Author: Fearon, James D. Title: Homicide data, third revision - Background paper prepared for the WDR 2011 team Summary: This brief paper summarizes results from an analysis of the WDR Homicide dataset (February 24, 2010), which is based primarily on estimates from the UNODC, with some changes or additions from national sources and the WHO. Although homicide rates appear to be the most reliable cross-national measure of crime, the best estimates we have are still probably much less reliable than parallel measures we have for presence and scale of civil conflict involving organized armed groups. This is so for two main reasons. First, the data are collected and reported by country agencies (police, usually), and procedures, definitions, and competence can vary greatly across countries and over time within them. Looking at the time series for particular countries suggests in many cases that large changes must be due to changed procedures or data collection policies, rather than changes in actual homicide rates. Second, there is a great deal of missing data. About 62% of all country years since 1960 have no homicide rate estimate, and about 47% of all country years since 1990. And of course, the data is not “missing at random” at all. Coverage is particular poor for lower income countries as indicated by Table 1, which shows the number of countries with homicide estimates, by region, for the year with the largest number of observations (2005). Notice that we have data for only 14 of 48 subSaharan Africa countries even in the best year, and for only 16 of 37 countries in Asia. It is entirely possible, even likely, that results for “global” models run below would be change if we had data for more of these missing Africa and Asian low income countries. As it is, it should be kept in mind that the global sample effectively overweights Western, Eastern European/FSU, and Latin American countries. Summary points: Homicide rates have been increasing markedly in Latin American and Caribbean countries since the early 1990s. There has been a slight tendency for higher homicide levels in drug producing or trafficking countries, but not very large. Basically, there has been an increase in homicide rates in the whole region; Elsewhere homicide rates appear to have either stayed steady or declined over the last 20 years, although for several regions we only have time-series data for a few countries (Africa, Asia, North Africa/Middle East in particular); Homicide rates tend to be highest in middle income countries, although this could be due to some correlated regional effect (esp. Latin America) rather than a causal effect of income level; Homicide rates tend to be higher in countries with greater income inequality, and this pattern seems to hold even when we compare countries within the same region. It is not clear why this is the case, and whether it is a causal effect; Homicide rates tend to be higher in democracies versus autocracies. This is true both across countries and when we look at the effect of transitions to democracy within countries. This may be a causal effect – it may be that authoritarian states have more aggressive, oppressive, and/or competent police forces than do typical new democracies, making for less crime in general. It could also be a measurement issue – perhaps autocracies are less inclined to report homicides. Higher economic growth rates predict lower homicide rates, even comparing periods within countries; Most of the correlates of civil war/conflict onset do not predict higher homicide rates. Higher income works the same way for both; richer countries have lower conflict risk and lower homicides. Democracy is essentially unrelated to conflict risk (controlling for income level), but associates with higher homicide rates; Measures of better governance in 1996 and 1998 are associated with lower homicide rates in the period 2000-2005. This relationship appears even when we control for income in 2000-2005. Interestingly, it only appears if we also control for degree of democracy, because it turns out that democracy is correlated with better governance but also with more homicides. Thus, comparing countries at similar levels of income and democracy, the ones judged to be better governed in terms of corruption, “government effectiveness,” regulatory quality, and (perhaps not surprisingly) “rule of law” in the late 1990s had lower homicide rates in 2000-2005. Details: Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 2011. 25p. Source: Background paper prepared for the WDR 2011 team: Internet Resource: Accessed September 30, 2012 at http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/06/01/000356161_20110601045939/Rendered/PDF/620370WP0Homic0BOX0361475B00PUBLIC0.pdf Year: 2011 Country: International URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/06/01/000356161_20110601045939/Rendered/PDF/620370WP0Homic0BOX0361475B00PUBLIC0.pdf Shelf Number: 126513 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsHomicide |
Author: McCrary, Justin Title: The Effect of Police on Crime: New Evidence from U.S. Cities, 1960-2010 Summary: Using a new panel data set on crime in medium to large U.S. cities over 1960-2010, we show that (1) year-over-year changes in police per capita are largely idiosyncratic to demographic factors, the local economy, city budgets, measures of social disorganization, and recent changes in crime rates, (2) year-over-year changes in police per capita are mismeasured, leading many estimates in the literature to be too small by a factor of 5, and (3) after correcting for measurement error bias and controlling for population growth, a regression of within-state differences in year-over-year changes in city crimes on within-state differences in year-over-year changes in police yields economically large point estimates. Our estimates are generally similar in magnitude to, but are estimated with a great deal more precision than, those from the quasi-experimental literature. Our estimates imply that each dollar spent on police is associated with approximately $1.60 in reduced victimization costs, suggesting that U.S. cities employ too few police. The estimates confirm a controversial finding from the previous literature that police reduce violent crime more so than property crime. Details: Berkeley, CA: University of California at Berkeley, 2012. 84p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 29, 2012 at: http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~jmccrary/chalfin_mccrary2012.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~jmccrary/chalfin_mccrary2012.pdf Shelf Number: 127031 Keywords: Crime Measurement (U.S.)Crime RatesCrime ReductionPolice OfficersPolicing |
Author: Alemika, E.O Title: Criminal Victimization, Safety and Policing in Nigeria Summary: The significance of reliable data and statistics on the extent and pattern of crimes and victimization in a nation and its different constituent political administrative units is recognized by criminologists, criminal justice officials and criminal justice policy-makers. However, the production of accurate crime and victimization data has been characterized by many problems. Some of the problems of collection and production of accurate crime and victimization are inherent in the nature of criminal activities, including efforts by criminals to conceal their actions and evade detection and arrest, capacity and practices of criminal justice agencies (police, courts and prisons). Information on crimes and victimization are obtained from three different sources: official statistics produced by criminal justice agencies (police, courts, prosecutors, prisons, etc.); self-report surveys which collect information (through questionnaire and interviews) from individuals on their involvement in any criminal activities, usually during the preceding twelve months, and victim surveys which obtain information from individuals and households (through questionnaires and interviews) on their criminal victimization experience during the preceding twelve months. The three sources provide indicators of level of victimization and criminality and complement each other, though they do not fully resolve the problems of incomplete information on crime and victimization. Nigeria lacks reliable criminal statistical system as a result of several factors, including: a. Lack of appreciation of the significance of evidence-based policy, operations and practice; b. Neglect of collection, analysis and utilization of crime and victimization surveys as essential input to planning, operations and administration; c. Lack of necessary capacity for the collection, analysis, utilization, storage and retrieval of essential data and information. CLEEN Foundation pioneered the conduct of large scale national criminal victimization survey based on multi-stage cluster and proportionate sampling methods. The Foundation piloted criminal victimization survey in Lagos in 2004 and subsequently conducted national criminal victimization surveys in respect of 2005 and 2006. The findings of the 2005 and 2006 national criminal victimization surveys have been published as research monographs1. Another survey covering 2007-20092 was conducted in early 2010, the major findings of which are presented in chapter two of this book. The aim of this book is to provide a comparative analysis of the data collected through three rounds of national criminal victimization surveys in Nigeria. The chapters in the book analysed different themes and provided summary of findings and recommendations. Details: Lagos, Nigeria: CLEEN Foundations, 2011. 148p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed December 4, 2012 at: http://www.cleen.org/Crime%20Victimization%20Safety%20and%20Policing%20in%20Nigeria.pdf Year: 2011 Country: Nigeria URL: http://www.cleen.org/Crime%20Victimization%20Safety%20and%20Policing%20in%20Nigeria.pdf Shelf Number: 127119 Keywords: CorruptionCrime RatesCrime StatisticsVictimization Surve (Lagos, Nigeria) |
Author: Violence Policy Center Title: When Men Murder Women: An Analysis of 2010 Homicide Data - Females Murdered by Males in Single Victim/Single Offender Incidents Summary: The annual VPC report details national and state-by-state information on female homicides involving one female murder victim and one male offender. The study uses the most recent data available from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s unpublished Supplementary Homicide Report and is released each year to coincide with Domestic Violence Awareness Month in October. Nationwide, 1,800 females were murdered by males in single victim/single offender incidents in 2010. Where weapon use could be determined, firearms were the most common weapon used by males to murder females (849 of 1,622 homicides or 52 percent). Of these, 70 percent (597 of 849) were committed with handguns. In cases where the victim to offender relationship could be identified, 94 percent of female victims (1,571 out of 1,669) were murdered by someone they knew. Of these, 65 percent (1,017 out of 1,571) were wives or intimate acquaintances of their killers. Sixteen times as many females were murdered by a male they knew than were killed by male strangers. In 88 percent of all incidents where the circumstances could be determined, the homicides were not related to the commission of any other felony, such as rape or robbery. Details: Washington, DC: Violence Policy Center, 2012. 31p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed December 22, 2012 at http://www.vpc.org/studies/wmmw2012.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://www.vpc.org/studies/wmmw2012.pdf Shelf Number: 127258 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsHomicideMurderViolence Against Women |
Author: Austin, James Title: How New York City Reduced Mass Incarceration: A Model for Change? Summary: Over the last two decades, crime and violence plummeted dramatically in New York City. Beginning in the 1990s, the New York Police Department shifted its policing practices, implementing a “broken windows” policing strategy which has morphed into the now infamous “stop-and-frisk” practices. During this same time period, the entire incarcerated and correctional population of the City – the number of people in jails and prisons, and on probation and parole – dropped markedly. New York City sending fewer people into the justice system reduced mass incarceration in the entire state. In this report, leading criminologists James Austin and Michael Jacobson take an empirical look at these powerful social changes and any interconnections. Examining data from 1985 to 2009, they conclude that New York City’s “broken windows” policy did something unexpected: it reduced the entire correctional population of the state. As the NYPD focused on low-level arrests, it devoted fewer resources to felony arrests. At the same time, a lowered crime rate – as an additional factor – meant that fewer people were committing felonies. Details: New York: Vera Institute of Justice, 2013. 28p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 4, 2013 at: http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/How_NYC_Reduced_Mass_Incarceration.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/How_NYC_Reduced_Mass_Incarceration.pdf Shelf Number: 127473 Keywords: Broken Windows Policing (New York City)CorrectionsCrime RatesCrime Statistics |
Author: Klima, Noel Title: European Cross-Country Crime Statistics, Surveys and Reports Summary: This report is a start up of a series of European Crime Prevention Monitor reports published every six months, presenting information on crime situations and crime trends based on statistics, surveys and reports. This first report presents findings from different international cross-country crime statistics, surveys and reports. A summary of some data, reports and on the major findings is outlined and presented with a focus on the 27 European Member States where possible. The aim of this report is to provide a quick and substantial, but selected overview of the situation and trends on crime and crime prevention in European Member States from the perspectives of the used data and literature. Target groups are local, national and European practitioners and policy makers. This report does not claim to be exhaustive. There are more statistics, surveys and reports which were not considered for this report. The data used has been published elsewhere and is not originally collected by the EUCPN. However, the information used in this report is analysed and presented in accordance with the needs of the target groups and the strategy of the EUCPN. Details: Brussels: EUCPN Secretariat, 2012. 34p. Source: Internet Resource: European Crime Prevention Monitor 2012/1: Accessed April 5, 2013 at: www.eucpn.org Year: 2012 Country: Europe URL: Shelf Number: 128292 Keywords: Crime PreventionCrime RatesCrime Statistics (Europe) |
Author: Fisher, Randy D. Title: Examining the Link Between Sexual Entertainment and Crime: The Presence of Adult Businesses and the Prediction of Crime Rates in Florida Summary: The Supreme Court of the United States has recently considered the constitutionality of anti-nudity legislation passed by municipalities and states. In City of Erie v. Pap's A.M., the Court held that municipalities may under certain circumstances pass anti-nudity ordinances on the assumption that nudity causes adverse secondary effects such as increased crime. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether rates of crime are associated with the rates of adult businesses in the 67 counties of Florida once other variables related to crime are controlled. Three kinds of crime were examined: UCR property crimes, UCR violent crimes, and rape. Rates per 100K people in the population were also computed for the numbers of nonsexual adult businesses: drinking establishments, gambling establishments, and hotels and motels in each county. These measures, along with measures of social disorganization and demographic variables, were examined for their relative ability to predict the three rates of crime. Regression analyses were performed to determine the unique contributions made by the control variables, rates of nude or semi-nude businesses, and rates of nonsexual adult businesses to prediction of the three rates of crime. Results revealed that rates of nude or semi-nude businesses were not significantly related to rates of property crimes or violent crimes. However, they were significantly, though inversely, related to rates of rape when other variables were taken into account. By contrast, rates of nonsexual adult businesses showed strong positive relationships with rates of both property crimes and rape. These results are consistent with previous research using different methodologies and they support the predictions of routine activity theory. However, they may cast doubt upon the validity of the doctrine of the adverse secondary effects of businesses offering nude or semi-nude entertainment. Details: Paper presented to the Law and Policy Division at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the International Communication Association, 2004. 31p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 25, 2013 at: http://www.adultentertainmentforum.com/pdf/Florida_County_rev_May_2.pdf Year: 2004 Country: United States URL: http://www.adultentertainmentforum.com/pdf/Florida_County_rev_May_2.pdf Shelf Number: 128435 Keywords: City of Erie v. Pap's A.M.Crime RatesEntertainment DistrictsRapeSex-oriented Businesses (Florida) |
Author: Baumann, Florian Title: Status Concerns as a Motive for Crime? Summary: This paper analyzes the implications of potential offenders caring about their relative status. We establish that subjects' status concerns can result in multiple-equilibrium crime rates and may modify the standard comparative-statics results regarding how the crime rate changes in response to a higher detection probability and higher sanctions. In addition, we argue that the socially optimal level of the detection probability and the sanction will often be higher when potential offenders care about their relative positions. Our analysis can be linked to one of the most important criminological theories of crime, namely strain theory. Details: Munich: Center for Economic Studies (CES), the Ifo Institute and the CESifo GmbH, 2013. 36p. Source: Internet Resource: CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 4225: Accessed May 1, 2013 at: Year: 2013 Country: International URL: Shelf Number: 128582 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics of CrimeStrain Theory |
Author: Pew Research Center Title: Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware Pace of Decline Slows in Past Decade Summary: National rates of gun homicide and other violent gun crimes are strikingly lower now than during their peak in the mid-1990s, paralleling a general decline in violent crime, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data. Beneath the long-term trend, though, are big differences by decade: Violence plunged through the 1990s, but has declined less dramatically since 2000. Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades. Nearly all the decline in the firearm homicide rate took place in the 1990s; the downward trend stopped in 2001 and resumed slowly in 2007. The victimization rate for other gun crimes plunged in the 1990s, then declined more slowly from 2000 to 2008. The rate appears to be higher in 2011 compared with 2008, but the increase is not statistically significant. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall also dropped in the 1990s before declining more slowly from 2000 to 2010, then ticked up in 2011. Despite national attention to the issue of firearm violence, most Americans are unaware that gun crime is lower today than it was two decades ago. According to a new Pew Research Center survey, today 56% of Americans believe gun crime is higher than 20 years ago and only 12% think it is lower. Details: Washington, DC: Pew Research Center, 2013. 63p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 25, 2013 at: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2013/05/firearms_final_05-2013.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2013/05/firearms_final_05-2013.pdf Shelf Number: 128824 Keywords: Crime RatesGun Violence (U.S.)HomicidesVictimization RatesViolent Crimes |
Author: Montoute, Annita Title: A Situational Analysis of Gun Related Crime in the Caribbean: The Case of Trinidad & Tobago; Antigua & Barbuda; St Vincent & the Grenadines and St. Lucia Summary: Crime rates vary across the Caribbean, they vary over time and across nations (Bennett and Lynch 2007: 49). A United Nations Report provides a list of causes of crime in the Caribbean region, including, poverty, unemployment, social marginalization and inequality, the illegal drug trade, corruption, the trafficking of firearms, the deportation of criminals, and the ineffectiveness of the existing criminal justice systems and consequent waiving of sanctions (Harriot 2002:8). Small Island economies in the Commonwealth Caribbean find themselves between a rock and a hard place in their quest for developed country status as crime rates continue to increase. The attention being paid to the relationship between the two factors is not new considering that for the past two decades; scholars in the region have been intrigued by the relationship between societal development and crime (Deosaran 2007). onsistent findings in traditional analyses of police recorded crime rates support the correlation between high crime rates and large urbanized areas. Similarly, studies in Europe confirm the modernist oriented urban-rural divide in crime analysis (Deosaran, 2007)6. According to Mahabir (1985), the modernization perspective at least explains earlier patterns of crime in the region; arguably because crime is partly the result of disintegrated traditional social control mechanism. Intrinsic in this relationship is the concentration of crime and gun related violence in the major cities (hot areas) in all four cases under study. In Trinidad and Tobago, the majority of gun related violence occurred in the Port of Spain district and Western district. Other urbanized cities such as San Fernando and Arima, have witnessed high rates of gun related violence. In Antigua and Barbuda, the concentration of gun related violence is in its capital city St. Johns; in St Vincent and the Grenadines, in the sub urban areas of Kingstown and in St. Lucia, predominantly in the Castries area. Another area of importance in understanding crime is the demographics of crime offenders. It is believed that the majority of offenders as well as victims in all countries are males aged between 15 and 30 years (Adler, Mueller, & Laufer, 1998), to the extent that theft, burglaries and assaults are considered youth-related phenomena. Also, since young people tend to enjoy “nights out” in town more than adults, that makes them more vulnerable to crime than adults. LaFree and Tseloni (2006) cited in Jan Van Dijk (2008) confirm the hypothesis that there is a correlation between relatively high proportions of young males and the incidence of crime. Contemporary research in the region also supports the theory associating young men of low-incomes, low literacy rates and the incidence of violence (Samms-Vaughan 2000). The Caribbean is especially vulnerable to crime for several reasons. It is situated between the world’s supplier of cocaine - the Andean region of South America and its primary consumer markets - the United States and Europe (UNODC and the World Bank 2007). There is general consensus that drugs and arms trafficking are inextricably linked (Harriot 2002; Griffith 2003). It is reported that illegal arms are used to protect the transhipment of illegal drugs as they move from major drug producing countries in South America to the consumer countries in the North. In a large number of cases, a positive correlation is seen between the illegal narcotics trade and the illegal trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons. Details: Trinidad and Tobago: Caribbean Coalition for Development and the Reduction of Armed Violence, 2009. 104p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 1, 2013 at: www.cdrav.org/upload/Gun_crime_paper_annita09.pdf Year: 2009 Country: Central America URL: Shelf Number: 129219 Keywords: Crime RatesGun TraffickingGun-Related Violence (Caribbean)HomicidesSocioeconomic Conditions and CrimeViolent Crimes |
Author: Johnson, Stephen Title: Nicaragua: Lessons from a Country with a Low Crime Rate Summary: Unlike its immediate neighbors to the north in Central America, Nicaragua has made admirable strides in the area of citizen security in the last 30 years. While Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras all had been galloping toward greater citizen insecurity since the conflictive 1980s, Nicaragua has managed to keep a lid on crime. With a homicide rate of 12 deaths per 100,000 residents—half the Latin American average of 26 per 100,000 and far lower than 82 per 100,000 in Honduras—Nicaragua appears to be a model for public safety in still turbulent Central America. However, recent erosions in democratic governance in Nicaragua could easily reverse such gains. Details: Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2012. 3p. Source: Internet Resource: Hemisphere Focus: Accessed July 9, 2013 at: http://csis.org/files/publication/120710_Johnson_Nicaragua_HemFocus.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Nicaragua URL: http://csis.org/files/publication/120710_Johnson_Nicaragua_HemFocus.pdf Shelf Number: 129340 Keywords: Crime (Nicaragua)Crime RatesPolicing |
Author: Fagan, Jeffrey Title: Policing, Crime and Legitimacy in New York and Los Angeles: The Social and Political Contexts of Two Historic Crime Declines Summary: The relationship between citizens and police occupies a central place both in urban politics and in the political economy of cities. In this respect, for nearly 50 years, New York and Los Angeles have been bellwethers for many of the nation's larger cities. In each city, as in cities across the world, citizens look to police to protect them from crime, maintain social order, respond to a variety of extra-legal community concerns, and reinforce the moral order of the law by apprehending offenders and helping bring them to justice (Reiss, 1971; Black, 1980; Skogan and Frydl, 2004). Beyond enforcing social and political order, the police are the front line representatives of a variety of social service needs in communities (Walker, 1992). Accordingly, policing is an amenity of urban places that shapes how citizens regard their neighborhood and their city, and in turn, the extent to which citizens see their local institutions as responsive and reliable (Skogan, 2006). Effective and sustainable governance, especially when it comes to public safety, depends on the capacity of the institutions of criminal justice to provide "value" that leverages legitimacy and cooperation among its citizens (Moore et al., 2002; Skogan and Frydl, 2004; Tyler and Fagan, 2008; Tyler, 2010). Details: New York: Columbia law School, 2012. 59p. Source: Internet Resource: Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 12-315 : Accessed November 11, 2013 at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2133487 Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2133487 Shelf Number: 131627 Keywords: Crime RatesPolice Legitimacy (U.S.)Police-Citizen InteractionsPolice-Community Relations |
Author: Papachristos, Andrew Title: 48 Years of Crime in Chicago: A Descriptive Analysis of Serious Crime Trends from 1965 to 2013 Summary: Over the past two decades, the United States has experienced an unpredicted drop in crime. Chicago, while often portrayed as a violent city, has seen sustained drops in violent crime and homicide rates during this time, but particularly recently. Using annual crime data, this report briefly describes temporal and spatial trends of major index crime in Chicago from 1965 to 2013. Overall, Chicago - like other U.S. cities - experienced a significant decline in overall crime and violent crime. Present day levels of violent crime are, in fact, at their lowest rates in four decades. Furthermore, nearly all communities experienced declines in crime, although the rates of decline were greater in some communities than others. Over the past three years, for example, all but five communities (out of 77) experienced declines in violent crime. Those areas that experienced increases were and continue to be some of Chicago's safest areas. While the drop in violent crime is shared between low and high crime areas alike, there remain areas of the city where violent crime rates are unacceptably high. Rates of homicide have also decreased over this period following the overall city-wide pattern, with some unique patterns emerging surrounding the contexts of gang homicide. The objective of this report is to simply document these historical trends and not to assign any casual interpretations of the vanguards of crime rates of this period. Directions for future investigation are also discussed. Details: New Haven, CT: Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 2013. 20p. Source: Internet Resource: ISPS Working Paper, ISPS 13-023: Accessed March 13, 2014 at: http://isps.yale.edu/sites/default/files/publication/2013/12/48yearsofcrime_final_ispsworkingpaper023.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://isps.yale.edu/sites/default/files/publication/2013/12/48yearsofcrime_final_ispsworkingpaper023.pdf Shelf Number: 131901 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime TrendsUrban Areas and CrimeViolent Crime |
Author: Kearney, Melissa S. Title: Ten Economic Facts about Crime and Incarceration in the United States Summary: Crime and high rates of incarceration impose tremendous costs on society, with lasting negative effects on individuals, families, and communities. Rates of crime in the United States have been falling steadily, but still constitute a serious economic and social challenge. At the same time, the incarceration rate in the United States is so high-more than 700 out of every 100,000 people are incarcerated-that both crime scholars and policymakers alike question whether, for nonviolent criminals in particular, the social costs of incarceration exceed the social benefits. While there is significant focus on America's incarceration policies, it is important to consider that crime continues to be a concern for policymakers, particularly at the state and local levels. Public spending on fighting crime-including the costs of incarceration, policing, and judicial and legal services-as well as private spending by households and businesses is substantial. There are also tremendous costs to the victims of crime, such as medical costs, lost earnings, and an overall loss in quality of life. Crime also stymies economic growth. For example, exposure to violence can inhibit effective schooling and other developmental outcomes (Burdick-Will 2013; Sharkey et al. 2012). Crime can induce citizens to migrate; economists estimate that each nonfatal violent crime reduces a city's population by approximately one person, and each homicide reduces a city's population by seventy persons (Cullen and Levitt 1999; Ludwig and Cook 2000). To the extent that migration diminishes a locality's tax and consumer base, departures threaten a city's ability to effectively educate children, provide social services, and maintain a vibrant economy. The good news is that crime rates in the United States have been falling steadily since the 1990s, reversing an upward trend from the 1960s through the 1980s. There does not appear to be a consensus among scholars about how to account for the overall sharp decline, but contributing factors may include increased policing, rising incarceration rates, and the waning of the crack epidemic that was prevalent in the 1980s and early 1990s. Despite the ongoing decline in crime, the incarceration rate in the United States remains at a historically unprecedented level. This high incarceration rate can have profound effects on society; research has shown that incarceration may impede employment and marriage prospects among former inmates, increase poverty depth and behavioral problems among their children, and amplify the spread of communicable diseases among disproportionately impacted communities (Raphael 2007). These effects are especially prevalent within disadvantaged communities and among those demographic groups that are more likely to face incarceration, namely young minority males. In addition, this high rate of incarceration is expensive for both federal and state governments. On average, in 2012, it cost more than $29,000 to house an inmate in federal prison (Congressional Research Service 2013). In total, the United States spent over $80 billion on corrections expenditures in 2010, with more than 90 percent of these expenditures occurring at the state and local levels (Kyckelhahn and Martin 2013). A founding principle of The Hamilton Project's economic strategy is that long-term prosperity is best achieved by fostering economic growth and broad participation in that growth. Elevated rates of crime and incarceration directly work against these principles, marginalizing individuals, devastating affected communities, and perpetuating inequality. In this spirit, we offer "Ten Economic Facts about Crime and Incarceration in the United States" to bring attention to recent trends in crime and incarceration, the characteristics of those who commit crimes and those who are incarcerated, and the social and economic costs of current policy. Chapter 1 describes recent crime trends in the United States and the characteristics of criminal offenders and victims. Chapter 2 focuses on the growth of mass incarceration in America. Chapter 3 presents evidence on the economic and social costs of current crime and incarceration policy. Details: Washington, DC: The Hamilton Project, Brookings, Institute, 2014. 24p. Source: Internet Resource: Policy Memo: Accessed May 10, 2014 at: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/05/01%20crime%20facts/v8_thp_10crimefacts.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/05/01%20crime%20facts/v8_thp_10crimefacts.pdf Shelf Number: 132316 Keywords: Costs of CrimeCosts of Criminal JusticeCrime RatesCriminal Justice ExpendituresEconomics of CrimeIncarcerationPrisoners |
Author: Morgan, Nick Title: The heroin epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s and its effect on crime trends - then and now. Research Report 79 Summary: - A variety of factors have been cited to explain the rise and fall in crime that has occurred in many nations since 1980. But as yet, no definitive explanation has been produced. In the UK context, a rise and fall in illicit drug use has not been especially prominent in this debate, perhaps due to a lack of robust data for the whole period. - This paper gathers available evidence and conducts new analysis to try to assess the effect that heroin and crack-cocaine use may have had on acquisitive crime (i.e. theft-type offences) in England and Wales since 1980. It also suggests implications for future crime trends. - Numerous sources of evidence agree that the number of heroin users increased markedly through the 1980s and early 1990s and that many also used crack as their drug-using career developed. This 'epidemic' spread from area to area but the national peak probably occurred between 1993 and 2000. Crime peaked between 1993 and 1995. - Current data, particularly from treatment providers, show that heroin/crack use has declined for at least a decade and that - as with offending - the decline has been most marked amongst younger people. This means those who began using these drugs during the epidemic still dominate the heroin/crack-using population today. - Studies agree that, in aggregate, heroin/crack users commit a large number of offences; large enough, this paper shows, to be an important driver of overall crime trends. - Studies disagree about whether it is illicit drug use that causes the criminality. This is because a sizable proportion of heroin/crack users do not resort to theft. And many were offending before taking these drugs. However, evidence suggests that, for at least some users, heroin/crack was the catalyst for offending, and for others it probably accelerated and extended their criminal career. Thus aggregate-level change in numbers of heroin/crack users is likely to affect crime trends. - An examination of the considerable regional and international variation in crime trends, particularly geographical areas where the crime drop was not marked or the peak occurred at a different time, also points to a possible causal relationship, rather than simple correlation. - Within England and Wales, the starkest example of regional variation was Merseyside, which had a recorded acquisitive crime peak five years before other police force areas. Evidence also suggests that Merseyside was one of the first areas to be hit by the heroin epidemic and the first to mount a concerted treatment response. Acquisitive (and total) recorded crime in Scotland peaked in 1991, which studies suggest is in line with the national peak in heroin/crack use. But in Edinburgh and its surrounding region (Lothian and Borders) recorded acquisitive crime peaked seven years earlier, in 1984. Data show that Lothian and Borders had a severe heroin epidemic at this time, which was not prolonged into the 1990s as in other parts of Scotland. - Like Merseyside and Edinburgh, the Republic of Ireland suffered a short, sharp heroin epidemic in the early 1980s and crime surged at this time. Northern Ireland did not have a heroin epidemic and its crime trend was much flatter over the period. - In the US all types of crime fell from 1991 but the US crime survey shows that property crime peaked over a decade earlier, in line with the US heroin epidemic. Likewise, many east European nations had a heroin epidemic about a decade after those in western Europe. Eastern Europe also had a recorded acquisitive crime peak around a decade after western Europe. - Two approaches were used in this paper to estimate the effect of heroin/crack use on crime. Both suggest that the epidemic may have had a significant impact on acquisitive crime in England and Wales. - The first approach was a police force area-level comparison of the Addicts Index and police recorded crime data from 1981 to 1996, through the crime turning point. This showed that different types of theft generally peaked together within an area. But the timing and size of these peaks varied across areas and was highly correlated with heroin use. Fixed effects regression analysis suggested that about 40 per cent of the national rise in the highest volume crime types (burglary and vehicle crime), from 1981 to the peak, can be attributed to rises in the number of heroin users. - The second approach was to model the number of heroin/crack users over time and their offending. Exploratory model results found that heroin/crack use could account for at least one-half of the rise in acquisitive crime in England and Wales to 1995 and between one-quarter and one-third of the fall to 2012, as the epidemic cohort aged, received treatment, quit illicit drug use or died. - Model results also suggested that the epidemic still affects acquisitive crime today. In the recent recession, crime in England and Wales continued to fall, which correlates with a slowly shrinking heroin/crack user population but not with economic factors. Projecting forwards, a further downward pressure on crime, of a lessening degree, might be expected as the heroin/crack cohort continues to age and get treatment. - The evidence presented shows that detecting and preventing future drug epidemics is paramount, and this requires local as well as national monitoring. Evidence also suggests that, for volume-crime reduction, it is crucial to maintain a focus on heroin/crack, despite the higher prevalence of other illicit drugs like cannabis, powder cocaine and ecstasy, and the emergence of new psychoactive substances. Specifically, it remains important to identify the minority of heroin/crack users who commit large volumes of crime during addiction periods. If that can be done, and those periods of addiction and offending can be shortened or prevented, the potential for further reductions in crime remains significant. However, many of these individuals will have been using heroin/crack intermittently for a decade or more and will have tried most current forms of treatment, so innovative approaches may be needed. Details: London: Home Office, 2014. 78 p.; Technical Report, 222p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Report 79: Accessed July 22, 2014 at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/332952/horr79.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/332952/horr79.pdf Shelf Number: 132733 Keywords: CocaineCrime RatesCrime TrendsDrug Abuse and AddictionDrug Abuse and CrimeHeroin (U.K.) |
Author: Vujic, Suncica Title: Structural Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates: The Impact of Sentence Reform in Virginia Summary: We adopt a structural time series analysis to investigate the impact of parole abolition and sentence reform in Virginia on reported crime rates. The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offences committed on or after January 1, 1995. To examine the impact of Virginia's change in legislation on reported crime rates from 1995 onwards, we perform an intervention time series analysis based on structural time series models. We empirically find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. For other violent crimes such as rape and aggravated assault the evidence of a significant reduction in crime rates is less evident or is not found. This empirical study for Virginia also provides an illustration of how an effective intervention time series analysis can be carried out in crime studies. Details: Amsterdam: Tinbergen Institute, 2012. 33p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 28, 2014 at: http://opus.bath.ac.uk/29051/ Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://opus.bath.ac.uk/29051/ Shelf Number: 132794 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice PolicyCriminal Justice ReformParoleSentencing Reform (Virginia) |
Author: Males, Mike Title: California's 58 Crime Rates: Realignment and Crime in 2012 Summary: California must reduce its prison population to 137.5 percent of rated capacity (approximately 110,000 individuals), due to a court-ordered mandate. One measure to achieve an institutional population reduction was the adoption of Public Safety Realignment, under Assembly Bill (AB) 109, in October 2011, whereby counties assumed responsibility for individuals convicted of low-level, nonviolent, non-sexual offenses who might have previously been sent to state prison. Counties also are responsible for managing said individuals who are released from prison on Post Release Community Supervision (PRCS). California's crime rate increased slightly in 2012. Previous CJCJ analysis found no correlation between the crime rate increase and Realignment (CJCJ, 2013a), and the purpose of this publication is to analyze newly available data for 2012. This report further addresses recent research by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC, 2013) that concluded Realignment was associated with an increase in property offenses, particularly motor vehicle theft, but not violent offenses in the first year of the policy. The present analysis finds California's 58 counties vary dramatically in their implementation of Realignment and in their respective crime rates. There are no conclusive trends demonstrating a causal relationship between Realignment and crime, even among counties in close geographic proximity. Additionally, there may be non-Realignment factors that inform an increase in certain crimes. Given this varied implementation, some counties continue as models for innovative policies worthy of recognition and replication. Details: Sacramento: Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, 2014. 9p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 31, 2014 at: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/CJCJ_2014_Realignment_Report.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/CJCJ_2014_Realignment_Report.pdf Shelf Number: 132851 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCriminal Justice PolicyCriminal Justice ReformPrison OvercrowdingPublic Safety Realignment (California) |
Author: Rockwool Foundation Title: Crime rates halved among second-generation immigrants Summary: Crime rates among non-Western second-generation immigrants to Denmark have been more than halved in only 15 years. This is one of the findings of a new analysis from the Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, which reveals that ethnic minorities in Denmark today display significantly less criminality than was the case in the 1990s - and that in terms of crime, they are coming to resemble ethnic Danes ever more closely. This trend is very clear among non-Western second-generation immigrants. In 1990, 11% of male non-Western second-generation immigrants aged 15-45 committed at least one criminal offence of which they were convicted. In 2006 the proportion was under half of that; 5% committed at least one offence during the year which led to a conviction. The same trend, though from a lower starting point, was evident among first-generation non-Western male immigrants; in 1990 6% of them were convicted of committing at least one criminal offence, while the proportion in 2006 had fallen to 3%. Details: Copenhagen: Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, 2012. 12p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 17, 2014 at: http://www.rockwoolfonden.dk/files/RFF-site/Publikations%20upload/Newsletters/Engelsk/Newsletter%20January%202012.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Denmark URL: http://www.rockwoolfonden.dk/files/RFF-site/Publikations%20upload/Newsletters/Engelsk/Newsletter%20January%202012.pdf Shelf Number: 133372 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsImmigrants and Crime (Denmark)ImmigrationMinority Groups |
Author: Bignon, Vincent Title: Stealing to Survive? Crime and Income Shocks in 19th Century France Summary: Using local administrative data from 1826 to 1936, we document the evolution of crime rates in 19th century France and we estimate the impact of a negative income shock on crime. Our identification strategy exploits the phylloxera crisis. Between 1863 and 1890, phylloxera destroyed about 40% of French vineyards. We use the geographical variation in the timing of this shock to identify its impact on property and violent crime rates, as well as minor offences. Our estimates suggest that the phylloxera crisis caused a substantial increase in property crime rates and a significant decrease in violent crimes. Details: Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2014. 60p. Source: Internet Resource: IZA Discussion Paper No. 8531: Accessed October 15, 2014 at: http://ftp.iza.org/dp8531.pdf Year: 2014 Country: France URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp8531.pdf Shelf Number: 133953 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics and Crime (France)Historical StudyProperty CrimeSocioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: Lakhani, Sadaf Title: The socio-economic costs of crime and violence in Papua New Guinea : recommendations for policy and programs Summary: At the request of the Prime Minister's office, between 2011‐2013, the World Bank conducted a study to understand the social and economic costs of crime and violence in Papua New Guinea. The purpose of the study was to feed a national conversation about crime and violence and inform policy directions and program interventions. The work has benefitted from extensive input from international partners and local stakeholders through a consultative and participatory methodology. The findings of the study are summarized separately in this Research and Dialogue Series on the Socioeconomic Costs of Crime and Violence in PNG. This brief outlines the policy and programming recommendations that emerge from the research. II. Key Findings of the Study Levels of crime and violence in PNG have remained high, although with annual fluctuations, and differences across regions. According to analysis of RPNGC data conducted for this study, the homicide rate-considered the most reliable indicator of overall crime-was 10.4 per 100,000 habitants in 2010, which is roughly the same as it was in 2000. The rate varies widely across regions, with an estimated rate of 66 per 100,000 in Lae and 33 in NCD, amongst the highest in the world. Robbery and assault are the most commonly reported crimes. Family and sexual violence (FSV) is also highly prevalent, and affects both females and males. Details: Washington, DC: : The World Bank, 2014. 16p. Source: Internet Resource: Research and Dialogue series ; no. 5: Accessed February 4, 2015 at: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/06/000350881_20140606161204/Rendered/PDF/885450NWP0Box3050Policy0PNG06005014.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Papua New Guinea URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/06/000350881_20140606161204/Rendered/PDF/885450NWP0Box3050Policy0PNG06005014.pdf Shelf Number: 134535 Keywords: Costs of Crime (Papua New Guinea)Crime RatesCrime StatisticsViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Kivivuori, Janne Title: Homicide in Finland, 20022006. A Description Based on the Finnish Homicide Monitoring System (FHMS) Summary: For decades, the Finnish homicide rate has been higher than the corresponding rate in other Nordic Countries. Every year, about three Finns per 100,000 are killed by interpersonal violence. It is, therefore, natural that homicide research has remained among the top priorities of Finnish criminology. Summary - In 2006, the Finnish Police reported 138 homicides. The crime rate was 2.6 victims per 100,000 population. - From the 1970s till the end of the 1990s, the homicide rate remained stable (about 3 per 100,000 population), but has decreased during the last five years. The majority of Finnish homicides occur in the context of drinking quarrels between unemployed, middle-aged male alcoholics. During the period 2002-2006, in 71% of all homicides all persons involved were intoxicated. In 85% of the crimes at least one of the persons involved was intoxicated. - In 2002-2006, 58% of male homicide offenders had prior convictions for violent crime and 37% had been in prison prior to the homicide. - Finnish homicide is regionally patterned: the northern and eastern parts of the country have higher homicide rates than the other regions. During the last decade, the gap has widened. Thus the overall drop in homicide occurrence reflects the decrease of lethal violence in the southern and western regions. - The Finnish homicide rate is one of the highest in the European Union. This is largely explained by the alcohol and drinking group related homicides of the socially marginalized men. The homicide rates of other socio-economic groups are roughly the same as in the other Scandinavian countries. - In 2002, Finland launched a national homicide monitoring system (FHMS) collecting detailed information about all homicides. This research brief is the first English-language report based on the FHMS. Details: Helsinki: National Research Institute of Legal Policy, 2007. 16p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Brief 3/2007: Accessed February 27, 2015 at: http://www.optula.om.fi/material/attachments/optula/julkaisut/verkkokatsauksia-sarja/KoRbDTYm7/hominfin2007.pdf Year: 2007 Country: Finland URL: http://www.optula.om.fi/material/attachments/optula/julkaisut/verkkokatsauksia-sarja/KoRbDTYm7/hominfin2007.pdf Shelf Number: 134727 Keywords: Alcohol Related Crime, DisorderCrime RatesCrime StatisticsHomicides (Finland)Violent Crime |
Author: Burke, Cynthia Title: Arrests 2013: Law Enforcement Response to Crime in the San Diego Region Summary: The Criminal Justice Research Division of the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) functions as the Clearinghouse for regional criminal justice information. On an annual basis, the Division prepares a report on local criminal justice agencies' response to crime in the region, as measured by arrest statistics. Because arrest statistics include information regarding whether the suspect is an adult or juvenile and includes a greater variety of crime types than are reported in regional crime reports (e.g., alcohol and other drug related offenses), this information provides an added dimension for understanding the nature of crime and an additional measure that can be used in justice system planning. This CJ Bulletin includes regional arrest rates per 1,000 adult and juvenile population, as well as numbers of arrests by offense type. In addition, 41 supplemental tables, which include statistics for individual jurisdictions, are presented. Some points to remember when interpreting these numbers include the following. - Similar to how the FBI counts reported crimes, the offense or charge attributed to an arrest may reflect only the most serious out of a number of violations included in the arrest. - Arrests are documented by the location at which the arrest occurred and cannot be assumed to have any relationship to the location of the crime incident or the residence of the alleged offender. - Arrest and crime rates and numbers should not be compared to one another. One reason is that the two events may occur in two entirely different periods of time, with an arrest made months or even years after the related crime was reported. Details: San Diego: SANDAG, 2015. 51p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 1, 2015 at: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_1915_18705.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_1915_18705.pdf Shelf Number: 135107 Keywords: Arrest and Apprehensive Crime RatesCrime Statistics |
Author: Baliki, Ghassan Title: Crime and Victimization Summary: Historically, higher crime rates have been associated with higher inequality and poverty. Nevertheless, there remains an ambiguity over the most prominent socioeconomic factors that increase crime rates and individual victimization. This paper discusses victimization and crime rate data collections from the International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS), the UNODC, and the World Value Surveys (WVS) in an effort to achieve three goals: (1) conduct an assessment on perceptions of public and private insecurity, as well as the fear of victimization; (2) provide a robust cross-regional comparison, where possible, on incidence of crime and evaluate the variability of exposure to victimization across gender and urban and rural residences; and (3) undertake a supplementary regional assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean to match perceptions with actual experience of crime to evaluate the magnitude of the gap in perceived risk of victimization among individuals. Details: Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: Background Note: Accessed April 6, 2015 at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR2014_bn_Crime_and_Violence_Baliki.pdf Year: 2014 Country: International URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR2014_bn_Crime_and_Violence_Baliki.pdf Shelf Number: 135158 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics Crime Victimization Surveys Victims of Crime |
Author: Uggen, Christopher Title: Crime and the Great Recession Summary: Key findings Despite the economic downturn, crime rates have continued to decline in 6 of 7 major crime categories. The only exception to this pattern is burglary, which dropped by 2.5% per year before 2007 and 1.2% per year thereafter. Preliminary 2011 statistics show that crimes such as burglary could once again be rising in several jurisdictions. Correctional populations have declined by approximately 3.7% since 2007. But racial disparities in punishment remain intact and have been little affected by the recession. Details: Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, 2012. 7p. Source: Internet Resource: A Great Recession Brief: Accessed April 15, 2015 at: https://web.stanford.edu/group/recessiontrends/cgi-bin/web/sites/all/themes/barron/pdf/Crime_fact_sheet.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://web.stanford.edu/group/recessiontrends/cgi-bin/web/sites/all/themes/barron/pdf/Crime_fact_sheet.pdf Shelf Number: 135210 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics and Crime Poverty Recession |
Author: Goh, Derek Title: An update of long-term trends in property and violent crime in New South Wales: 1990-2014 Summary: Aim: The aim of this paper is to analyse the trends in the rates of annual recorded incidents of 10 categories of property and violent crime for the period 1990 to 2014 in New South Wales (NSW). Method: Offence rates were calculated using criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for the period 1995 to 2014, and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research's recorded crime statistics report series for the period 1990 to 1994. Kendall's trend test was run on the 24 annual rates for each of the 10 offence categories. Results: Some categories of crime in NSW are now at the lowest recorded levels they have been for over 20 years. Comparing per capita rates of crime in 2014 with per capita rates in 1990, lower rates were found for: motor vehicle theft (79% lower), robbery with a firearm (76% lower), break and enter non-dwelling (73% lower), break and enter dwelling (55% lower), robbery without a weapon (50% lower), murder (42% lower) and robbery with a weapon not a firearm (40% lower). Three of the ten offence types analysed in this report were found to have recorded rates higher in 2014 than in 1990: sexual assault (132% higher), other sexual offences (96% higher) and assault (67% higher). Conclusion: In the period since 1990, assault and sexual assault rates recorded significant long term upward trends whilst the other eight offences analysed in this report were trending down or stable. The 2014 recorded sexual assault rate was marginally below the highest in that series (occurring in 2012) and the rate since 2000 has recorded a significant uptrend. Apart from sexual assault and other sexual offences, the remaining eight offence types recorded significant downtrends in recorded rates since 2000. The three robbery and three property crime series all recorded falls of more than 60 per cent since 2000. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2015. 6p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 29, 2015 at: Issue Paper 104: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/BB/BB104.pdf Year: 2015 Country: Australia URL: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/BB/BB104.pdf Shelf Number: 135404 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics (Australia)Property CrimeViolent Crime |
Author: Wilson, Stuart Title: The Changing Economy and Demography of Saskatchewan and its Impact on Crime and Policing: Phase 1 Report: Overview of Demographic, Economic, Crime and Policing Trends in Saskatchewan Summary: This report is the first preliminary report of a larger research project. This larger research project aims to examine the socio-economic determinants of crime, identify how economic and demographic changes in Saskatchewan and its cities have influenced changes in crime rates, and to speculate how crime rates might evolve with continued resource development and the expansion of the Saskatchewan economy. This project will also attempt to identify reactive and proactive responses of police forces in the province to the changing economic, demographic, and crime patterns they face. This first preliminary report provides an overview of the economic and demographic changes that have occurred over the last two decades in Saskatchewan and its ten major cities, and the coinciding changes in policing and crime rates. The Saskatchewan economy shifted into a higher gear around 2006, after two decades of slow population and economic growth, and rising crime rates. The Saskatchewan economy has recently benefitted from: - Rising commodity prices - An export boom - Increased resource exploration and development - An investment and construction boom - Increased international immigration flows - Substantial net interprovincial in-migration Saskatchewan residents are more prosperous and poverty rates have declined. Median family income in Saskatchewan has grown at an average annual rate of 3.7% from 2006 to 2011, in real terms after accounting for inflation, much higher than the 1.1% annual growth in the preceding five years. The prevalence of poverty, as measured by the proportion of individuals living in low-income households, declined from 17.8% in 2005, to 11.3% in 2011, falling below the rates for Manitoba and the country as a whole. Saskatchewan has experienced substantial reductions in rates of violent crime and of property crime while economic conditions in the province improved: The rate of violent crime in Saskatchewan fell by 30% from 2003 to 2012; The rate of property crime fell by 32% from 2003 to 2012 This report is the first preliminary report of a larger research project. This larger research project aims to examine the socio-economic determinants of crime, identify how economic and demographic changes in Saskatchewan and its cities have influenced changes in crime rates, and to speculate how crime rates might evolve with continued resource development and the expansion of the Saskatchewan economy. This project will also attempt to identify reactive and proactive responses of police forces in the province to the changing economic, demographic, and crime patterns they face. This first preliminary report provides an overview of the economic and demographic changes that have occurred over the last two decades in Saskatchewan and its ten major cities, and the coinciding changes in policing and crime rates. The Saskatchewan economy shifted into a higher gear around 2006, after two decades of slow population and economic growth, and rising crime rates. The Saskatchewan economy has recently benefitted from: - Rising commodity prices - An export boom - Increased resource exploration and development - An investment and construction boom - Increased international immigration flows - Substantial net interprovincial in-migration Saskatchewan residents are more prosperous and poverty rates have declined. Median family income in Saskatchewan has grown at an average annual rate of 3.7% from 2006 to 2011, in real terms after accounting for inflation, much higher than the 1.1% annual growth in the preceding five years. The prevalence of poverty, as measured by the proportion of individuals living in low-income households, declined from 17.8% in 2005, to 11.3% in 2011, falling below the rates for Manitoba and the country as a whole. Saskatchewan has experienced substantial reductions in rates of violent crime and of property crime while economic conditions in the province improved: - The rate of violent crime in Saskatchewan fell by 30% from 2003 to 2012 - The rate of property crime fell by 32% from 2003 to 2012 Details: Regina, SASK: University of Regina, Collaborative Centre for Justice and Safety, 2014. 100p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 18, 2015 at: http://www.justiceandsafety.ca/rsu_docs/phase-i-revised-with-cover.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Canada URL: http://www.justiceandsafety.ca/rsu_docs/phase-i-revised-with-cover.pdf Shelf Number: 135696 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics of CrimeSocioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: Lofstrom, Magnus Title: Realignment, Incarceration, and Crime Trends in California Summary: When California's historic public safety realignment was implemented in October 2011, many were concerned about the impact it would have on crime rates. In a 2013 report, we found that realignment did not increase violent crime in its first year, but that it did lead to an increase in auto thefts. In this report, we assess whether these trends continued beyond realignment's first year. We find that both the prison and jail populations increased slightly since 2012, which means that the number of offenders on the street did not rise from the 18,000 during realignment's first year. This is likely to change with the implementation of Proposition 47, which further reduces California's reliance on incarceration. Our analysis of updated state-level crime data from the FBI confirms our previous findings. Violent crime rates remain unaffected by realignment, and although California's property crime rate decreased in 2013, it did not drop more than in comparable states-so the auto theft gap that opened up in 2012 has not closed. Research indicates that further reductions in incarceration may have a greater effect on crime trends; the state needs to implement effective crime prevention strategies-and it can learn about alternatives to incarceration successfully implemented by the counties as well as other states. Details: Sacramento: Public Policy Institute of California, 2015. 10p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 27, 2015 at: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_515MLR.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_515MLR.pdf Shelf Number: 135791 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice Policy Criminal Justice Reform Parole SupervisionParolees Prison Overcrowding Public Safety Realignment Recidivism |
Author: Paris, Jeffrey Jonathan Title: Crime, Contraband, and Property Rights: Explaining Variations in Violent Crime Rates Summary: Violent crime affects quality of life on an individual level and development on a national level (Kleiman, 2009), and could be the most important factor in determining whether many low and middle-income countries develop stable governments and implement effective economic policies. I propose a political and natural resource based explanation of the variation in crime rates in order to overcome the lack of connections between macro-level statistical data and causal mechanisms identified up to this point. My explanation involves the dynamics between state strength, property rights formation and enforcement, and the specific nature of criminal markets. When the state is weak crime rates usually increase due to the state's inability to enforce property rights, including the inability to control contraband markets (or adequately taxing legal markets), and the inability to effectively punish defectors. Property rights are established through a political bargaining process between actors that generally depends on the capacity for violence of interested parties (DeSoto, 2000; Umbeck, 1981). Well-defined and enforced property rights reduce transaction costs, and therefore reduce levels of violence (Anderson and Hill, 2003). The specific properties of markets, including the resources they are based on, can shape the market environment, including legality, and affect the resulting "institutions of extraction" (Snyder, 2006, 952). Lootable resources make property rights harder to enforce and interact with the state's ability to provide the rule of law, especially in the case of prohibitions. Illicit markets engender violence because normal business disputes are often settled with violence (Kleiman, 1993, 104-107, 115). My hypotheses examine the relationship between the production of lootable products, while controlling for other factors commonly attributed to crime. My analysis suggests that, all else being equal, the production of lootable resources increases crime rates, while the enforcement of property rights, whether by a state, non-state actor, or community, reduces violent crime rates. To test my hypotheses I use a mix of statistical analysis, case studies based on archival research, and structured interviews. Cross-national data was collected through archival research and existing databases, spanning over seventy countries and fifty years. Local level data comes from fieldwork in Colombia, and includes quantitative data for every municipality in Colombia over a span of nine years, and qualitative data for several regions critical to testing my hypotheses. Details: Los Angeles: University of California, Los Angeles, 2012. 179p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/08t0s726 Year: 2012 Country: Colombia URL: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/08t0s726 Shelf Number: 136779 Keywords: ContrabandCrime RatesIllicit MarketsLootingProperty RightsSocioeconomic Conditions and CrimeViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Lofstrom, Magnus Title: Public Safety Realignment and Crime Rates in California Summary: Public safety realignment substantially reduced the state's prison population. Between 2011 and 2012, property crime increased in California as a result of this policy change. Auto theft increased most dramatically, by 14.8 percent-or about 24,000 per year. By contrast, violent crime rates did not appear to be affected Details: San Francisco: Public Policy Institute of California, 2013. 24p., app. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 30, 2015 at: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_1213MLR.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_1213MLR.pdf Shelf Number: 136924 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice PolicyPrison OvercrowdingPrisonersPrisonsPublic Safety Realignment |
Author: Lofstrom, Magnus Title: Public Safety Realignment: Impacts So Far Summary: Prompted by a federal court order to reduce prison overcrowding, California's 2011 historic public safety realignment shifted many correctional responsibilities for lower-level felons from the state to counties. The reform was premised on the idea that locals can do a better job, and it was hoped that incarceration rates and corrections costs would fall. At the same time, critics predicted crime would rise. Four years since its implementation, realignment has made several important impacts: Realignment significantly reduced the prison population, but the state did not reach the court-mandated population target until after the passage of Proposition 47 in November 2014, which reduced penalties for many property and drug offenses. The reform challenged county jails and probation departments by making them responsible for a greater number of offenders with a broader range of backgrounds and needs. The county jail population did not rise nearly as much as the prison population fell, reducing the total number of people incarcerated in California. Realignment did not increase violent crime, but auto thefts rose. Research so far shows no dramatic change in recidivism rates. State corrections spending remains high, but there is reason to believe expenditures could drop in the future. Realignment has largely been successful, but the state and county correctional systems face significant challenges. The state needs to regain control of prison medical care, which is now in the hands of a federal receiver. And the state and counties together must make progress in reducing stubbornly high recidivism rates. Details: San Francisco: Public Policy Institute of California, 2015. 10p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 30, 2015 at: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_915MLR.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/R_915MLR.pdf Shelf Number: 136925 Keywords: Costs of CorrectionsCrime RatesCriminal Justice Policy Criminal Justice Reform Jails Prison Overcrowding Public Safety Realignment Recidivism |
Author: James, Nathan Title: Is Violent Crime in the United States Increasing? Summary: On August 31, 2015, the New York Times ran an article with the headline "Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities." The story highlighted double-digit percentage increases in homicide rates in several cities, and came on the heels of reports from other media outlets of recent spikes in violent crime in cities across the country. Accounts of rising violent crime rates in some cities have generated speculation about whether the United States is in the midst of a new crime wave. Overall, homicide and violent crime rates have been trending downward for more than two decades, and both rates are at historic lows. An analysis comparing 2014 and 2015 homicide data from the nation's 60 most populous cities suggests that violent crime is not increasing. Overall, reported homicides were up 16% in 2015, but a majority of cities (44 of 60) have not seen a statistically significant increase in homicides. The general consensus is that it is too early to draw any conclusions about the reversal of long-term trends. Also, even if homicide and violent crime rates do increase this year, it may not portend a break in the long-term trend. Even though both rates have been on a downward trend since 1990, there were years where either the homicide rate or violent crime rate increased. There are several short-term factors that might help explain some of the reported upticks in violent crime across the country. - Year-to-year changes in crime rates can be subject to random fluctuations. - Crime rates are subject to seasonal effects. - Many cities are experiencing increases from historically low levels of crime. - Percentage change in reported crimes is a relative measure and is sensitive to magnitude. While it might be too early to make any definitive conclusions about whether violent crime is on the rise, several commentators have speculated as to why some cities are experiencing spikes in violent crimes. Suggested explanations include the following: - The "Ferguson effect" (i.e., in the wake of a spate of high-profile officer-involved deaths, police have become reluctant to engage in proactive policing, thereby emboldening criminals). - Law enforcement is facing a legitimacy problem in some communities where residents feel that they are not treated fairly by the police, and this may mean that people are more likely to take matters into their own hands when conflicts arise. - The increase in violence can be attributed to battles between gangs for control of drug turf or released violent offenders committing new crimes. The recent discussion about the increases in violent crime in some cities might raise the question of whether there is a need for more "real time" nationwide crime statistics. More frequent and consistent crime data might be able to provide greater insight into crime trends. However, there are logistical issues involved with collecting and reporting timely and accurate crime statistics from the nation's approximately 18,000 law enforcement agencies. Details: Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2015. 13p. Source: Internet Resource: R44259: Accessed November 6, 2015 at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44259.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44259.pdf Shelf Number: 137211 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsViolent Crime |
Author: de Hoyos, Rafael Title: Idle youth in Mexico : trapped between the war on drugs and economic crisis Summary: The present study combines data from Mexico's employment surveys (Encuesta Nacional de Empleo and Encuesta Nacional de Ocupacion y Empleo) with the country's official statistics on murder rates to create a state-level panel data set covering the period 1995 to 2013. Including most of the common controls identified by the literature, the results show that the rate of male youth ages 19 to 24 not studying and out of work (the so-called ninis), is not correlated with homicide rates during the period 1995 to 2006. However, there is evidence that a positive correlation between male ninis and murder rates arises between 2007 and 2013, a period during which murder rates in Mexico increased threefold. The association between ninis and homicide rates is stronger in states located along the border with the United States, a region particularly affected by organized crime and the international financial crisis of 2008-09. Details: Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2016. 34p. Source: Internet Resource: Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 7558: Accessed February 17, 2016 at: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/02/04/090224b084147697/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Idle0youth0in000and0economic0crisis.pdf Year: 2016 Country: Mexico URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/02/04/090224b084147697/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Idle0youth0in000and0economic0crisis.pdf Shelf Number: 137868 Keywords: At-Risk YouthCrime RatesHomicidesMurdersOrganized CrimeUnemployment and Crime |
Author: Perreault, Samuel Title: Criminal Victimization in Canada, 2014 Summary: Criminal victimization has serious impacts on the well-being of victims, their families and friends, their community and on society as a whole (Justice Canada 2013). Impacts can be both direct and indirect and can include financial, physical, psychological as well as emotional consequences. Overall, crime can impact a community's sense of well being, and can result in heightened costs for policing, victim services and additional prevention measures adopted by businesses and communities. In addition to collecting police-reported data annually through the Uniform Crime Reporting Survey (UCR), every five years Statistics Canada conducts the General Social Survey (GSS) on Victimization which asks Canadians to self-report victimization for eight offence types. Data from the GSS inform us on the victimization experiences of Canadians aged 15 years and older, including incidents not brought to the attention of the police. This information is used by various justice stakeholders to guide victim services, policing, family violence initiatives, and crime prevention programs (Government of Canada 2012). This Juristat article presents the first results from the 2014 GSS on Victimization. The analysis provides insight on the nature and extent of criminal victimization in the 10 provinces. The report also examines the factors associated with the risk of being the victim of a crime, the consequences of victimization, and the reporting of incidents to police. While the rates presented in the first part of this report include data on spousal violence, the sections on the characteristics of incidents, consequences of victimization and reporting to police exclude data on spousal violence. Data on spousal violence were collected using a different methodology and will be analysed in a separate report. Details: Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2015. 42p. Source: Internet Resource: Juristat, 35(1): Accessed February 25, 2016 at; http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2015001/article/14241-eng.pdf Year: 2015 Country: Canada URL: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2015001/article/14241-eng.pdf Shelf Number: 137968 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsVictimization SurveyVictims of Crime |
Author: Cameron, Lisa Title: China's Sex Ratio and Crime: Behavioral Change or Financial Necessity? Summary: This paper uses survey and experimental data from prison inmates and comparable non-inmates to examine the drivers of rising criminality in China. Consistent with socio-biological research on other species, we find that China's high sex-ratios are associated with greater risk-taking and impatience amongst males. These underlying behavioral impacts explain some part of the increase in criminality. The primary avenue through which the sex-ratio increases crime, however, is the direct pressure on men to appear financially attractive in order to find a partner in the marriage market. These marriage market pressures result in a higher propensity to commit financially rewarding crimes. Details: Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2016. 38p. Source: Internet Resource: IZA Discussion Paper No. 9747: Accessed March 2, 2016 at: http://ftp.iza.org/dp9747.pdf Year: 2016 Country: China URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp9747.pdf Shelf Number: 138021 Keywords: Crime RatesFamiliesFinancial CrimesMarriageOne Child PolicyRisk-Taking |
Author: South Australia. Attorney-General's Department. Office of Crime Statistics and Research Title: South Australia Offence Profile 2014 Summary: This report presents data relating to all non-expiable offences and incidents recorded by police in South Australia over the time period 2011 to 2014. The report includes information on the number and rate of offences recorded by police in 2014. It also provides a breakdown of the type of offences recorded and a comparison with the numbers recorded in previous years. Details: Adelaide: South Australia Attorney-General's Department, 2015. 10p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 12, 2016 at: http://www.ocsar.sa.gov.au/docs/other_publications/South_Australian_Offence_Profile_-_2014.pdf Year: 2015 Country: Australia URL: http://www.ocsar.sa.gov.au/docs/other_publications/South_Australian_Offence_Profile_-_2014.pdf Shelf Number: 138200 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics Criminal Offenders Criminal Offenses Offenders |
Author: Brenig, Mattheus Title: Putting a Price Tag on Security: Subjective Well-Being and Willingness-to-Pay for Crime Reduction in Europe Summary: Using information on life satisfaction and crime from the European Social Survey, we apply the life satisfaction approach (LSA) to determine the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB), income, victimization experience, fear of crime and various regional crime rates across European regions, while controlling for potentially confounding socio-economic variables. We show that fear of crime, criminal victimization and the average regionally perceived fear of crime significantly reduce life satisfaction across Europe. Building upon these results, we quantify the monetary value of improvements in public safety and its valuation in terms of individual well-being. The loss in satisfaction for victimized individuals corresponds to 21,790L. Increasing an average individual's perception within his neighborhood from unsafe to safe yields a benefit equivalent to 12,700L. Our results regarding crime and SWB in Europe largely resemble previous results for different countries and other criminal contexts, whereby using the LSA as a valuation method for public good provision yields similar results as stated preference methods and considerably higher estimates than revealed preference methods Details: Gottingen, Germany: University of Goettingen (Gottingen), 2016. 32p. Source: Internet Resource: Discussion Papers, no. 278: Accessed March 16, 2016 at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2736933 Year: 2016 Country: Europe URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2736933 Shelf Number: 138253 Keywords: Costs of CrimeCosts of Criminal JusticeCrime PreventionCrime RatesFear of CrimeSecurity |
Author: Peirce, Jennifer Title: Gap Analysis Report: Citizen Security in Belize Summary: In the face of rising crime rates and increasingly complex transnational and local criminal dynamics, Belize's limited institutional resources are overstretched. Youth violence and gangs are of particular concern in urban areas, where lack of education and employment options converge with the prevalence of guns and trafficking networks. Despite some promising smaller-scale crime prevention initiatives, a comprehensive crime prevention strategy requires more significant institutional reforms. This Technical Note reviews the current trends in crime and violence in Belize and the government's existing policies and programs in the sector. It then proposes several short and medium-term actions to strengthen the government's ability to prevent and reduce crime and violence, such as consolidating strategic planning and information management efforts, designing prevention programs more tailored to specific at-risk groups, bolstering criminal investigation and community policing resources, and adapting the corrections system to the specific needs of juveniles and gang-involved youth. Details: Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2013. 33p. Source: Internet Resource: Technical Note No. IDB -TN-572: Accessed March 21, 2016 at: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/news/102313.AB-Belize-IADB.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Belize URL: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/news/102313.AB-Belize-IADB.pdf Shelf Number: 138354 Keywords: CrimeCrime PreventionCrime RatesPublic SafetyUrban CrimeYouth GangsYouth Violence |
Author: Comack, Elizabeth Title: The Impact of the Harper Government's "Tough on Crime" Strategy: Hearing from Frontline Workers Summary: Crime rates in Canada have been steadily dropping for over a decade, while prison populations have been increasing in recent years. Commentators have attributed this disconnection between falling crime rates and increasing incarceration numbers to the Harper government's "tough on crime" strategy. Since coming to power in 2006, the Harper government has implemented a host of legislative and policy changes designed to "tackle crime," "hold offenders accountable," and "make communities safer." At the same time, the government also enacted significant budget cuts that have affected the ability of the correctional system to uphold its mandate. To learn about the on-the-ground impact of these changes, we interviewed 16 frontline workers in two provinces (Manitoba and Ontario). In their capacities as correctional, parole, and probation officers, and as prisoner advocates, counsellors, and support workers in the community, these workers have a cumulative record of over 200 years of knowledge and experience to draw on. Details: Winnipeg, MB: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives Manitoba, 2015. 44p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 21, 2016 at: https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/Manitoba%20Office/2015/09/Tough%20on%20Crime%20WEB.pdf Year: 2015 Country: Canada URL: https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/Manitoba%20Office/2015/09/Tough%20on%20Crime%20WEB.pdf Shelf Number: 138358 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice PolicyCriminal Justice Reform |
Author: Matthews, Ben Title: Where have all the young offenders gone? Summary: Key points - The crime drop that has happened in Scotland since the early 1990s is not evenly distributed among offenders. - There has been a substantial decline in the rate of convictions of people aged 25 or under, in particular young men. - By contrast, rates of convictions for people over 26 have been mostly stable. - These changes have not occurred evenly over time. There were substantial drops in rates of convictions for young men (but not young women) between 1989 and 1999, slight increases in convictions for all age groups between 2000 and 2006, then substantial declines in conviction rates for both young men and young women between 2007 and 2012. - Examining changing patterns of age and crime in Scotland suggests that further work is required to explain this sharp decline in youth convictions. Details: Edinburgh: Applied Quantitative Methods Network, University of Edinburgh, 2014. 4p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Briefing 4: Accessed March 22, 2016 at: https://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/RB4-young-offenders.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/RB4-young-offenders.pdf Shelf Number: 138370 Keywords: Age and CrimeCrime DropCrime RatesYouth Adult OffendersYouthful Offenders |
Author: Inter-American Commission on Human Rights Title: Situation of Human Rights in Honduras Summary: The report "Situation of Human Rights in Honduras", addresses the situation of human rights violations which result of high rates of violence, citizen insecurity and impunity. The report also provides recommendations in order to assist the State in strengthening its efforts to protect and guarantee human rights. The report indicates that the homicide rate in Honduras remains one of the highest in the region and the world, although the State reported numbers that indicate a decline in 2014. These levels of violence are a result of several factors, including the increased presence of organized crime and drug traffickers, an inadequate judicial response that fuels impunity, corruption, and high levels of poverty and inequality. "Violence and insecurity are serious problems that Honduran society faces with a major impact on the enjoyment and effective exercise of human rights in the country," said Commissioner Francisco Eguiguren, IACHR Rapporteur for Honduras. The report indicates that the high levels of violence faced by Honduran society have a particular impact on human rights defenders, indigenous peoples, women, children, adolescents and youth, LGBT persons, migrants, campesinos from the Bajo Aguan, journalists and media workers, and justice operators. The report also analyzes those still considered to be among the most serious problems that the Honduran prison system is facing. Official figures released in 2013 indicate that 80% of murders committed in Honduras go unpunished due to a lack of capacity of investigative bodies. During the visit, civil society organizations claimed that the prevailing levels of impunity in Honduras are even higher. Details: Washington, DC: IACHR, 2015. 230p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 26, 2016 at: http://www.oas.org/en/iachr/reports/pdfs/Honduras-en-2015.pdf Year: 2015 Country: Honduras URL: http://www.oas.org/en/iachr/reports/pdfs/Honduras-en-2015.pdf Shelf Number: 138417 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice SystemsHomicideHuman Rights AbusesMurdersViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Inter-American Commission on Human Rights Title: Situation of Human Rights in Guatemala: Siversity, Inequality and Exclusion Summary: The report "Situation of Human Rights in Guatemala: Diversity, Inequality and Exclusion," addresses structural challenges on public safety, access to justice and impunity, marginalization and discrimination that seriously affect the human rights of its inhabitants. The report particularly analyzes the system of administration of justice in Guatemala and the need for appropriate, efficient, independent and impartial, in order to respond to structural impunity for several past and present human rights violations. Also, the report especially addresses the situation of the indigenous peoples of Guatemala, whose rights to their ancestral lands and territories have been affected, and suffer exclusion, inequality and malnutrition as a result of racism and structural discrimination. The report analyzes the situation of human rights of human rights defenders, journalists, women, children and adolescents, persons with disabilities, lesbian, gay, transgender, bisexual and intersex persons and migrants. "We have noticed changes in Guatemala in favor of a society that is more respectful of human rights," said the IACHR Rapporteur for Guatemala, Commissioner Enrique Gil Botero. "These advances have been promoted and triggered by the efforts of public officials committed to justice, as well as human rights defenders and social leaders. Their work, which often endangers their life and integrity, has been and continues to be essential. " Among the improvements, the IACHR highlights the reduction in the homicide rate and the September 2015 Constitutional Court's decision, which for the first time ordered the implementation of a prior and informed consultation with the indigenous communities affected by an investment project. Furthermore, also regarding administration of justice, the Commission highlights the efforts of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the Public Ministry in their work dismantling criminal networks and fighting against corruption. The IACHR also appreciates the efforts taken by the State in order to create a program to protect journalists, prevent and combat human trafficking, as well as to register differentiated statistics on violence against women to feed the design of public policies, among others. The IACHR also applauds the decision taken by the government to extend the mandate of the CICIG in 2015, whose work has been crucial. Details: Washington, DC: IACHR, 2015. 221p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 26, 2016 at: http://www.oas.org/en/iachr/reports/pdfs/Guatemala2016-en.pdf Year: 2015 Country: Guatemala URL: http://www.oas.org/en/iachr/reports/pdfs/Guatemala2016-en.pdf Shelf Number: 138418 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice SystemsDiscriminationHomicidesHuman Rights AbusesIndigenous PeoplesPublic SafetyViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Males, Mike Title: Is Proposition 47 to Blame for California's 2015 Increase in Urban Crime? Summary: In November 2014, nearly 60 percent of California's electorate voted to pass Proposition 47. This proposition made substantial sentencing reforms by reducing certain nonviolent, non-serious offenses, such as minor drug possession and shoplifting, from felonies to misdemeanors (CJCJ, 2014). Because the changes made by the new law applied retroactively, incarcerated people serving felony sentences for offenses affected by Proposition 47 were eligible to apply for resentencing to shorten their sentences or to be released outright. Those who already completed felony sentences for Proposition 47 offenses could also apply to change their criminal records to reflect the reforms. Critics of Proposition 47 contended it would increase crime by releasing those convicted of dangerous or violent felonies early. Opponents also suggested that reducing the severity of sentences for certain felonies would fail to deter people from committing crimes or completing court-ordered probation requirements. In the initial months following the passage of Proposition 47, California's jail population dropped by about 9,000 between November 2014 and March 2015 (the most recent date for which county jail figures are available at this time) (BSCC, 2016). State prisons reported over 4,500 releases attributed to Proposition 47 (CDCR, 2016), for a total incarcerated population decline of more than 6 percent - a substantial decrease. Similar to the initial year after Public Safety Realignment took effect, January-June 2015 saw general increases in both violent and property crime in California's cities with populations of 100,000 or more (Table 1). During this period, homicide and burglary showed slight declines, while other Part I violent and property offenses experienced increases. Is Proposition 47 to blame for the increases in reported urban crimes? This report tests this question by comparing changes in crime rates, from January-June 2014 and January-June 2015, in California's 68 largest cities to changes in: (a) county jail populations and (b) Proposition 47-related discharges and releases from prison to resentencing counties. Details: San Francisco: Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, 2016. 8p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 29, 2016 at: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/proposition_47_and_urban_crime_2015.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/proposition_47_and_urban_crime_2015.pdf Shelf Number: 138458 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsNeighborhoods and CrimeProposition 47Urban Crime |
Author: Institute for Economics and Peace Title: Mexico Peace Index 2016. Mapping the Evolution of Peace and Its Drivers Summary: In 2015, Mexico's peace improved by 0.3 percent, which is the smallest improvement in peace in the last five years. The improvement is largely attributed to a 10 percent decline in the violent crime rate and an eight percent decline in the rate of organized crime related offenses. However, this was offset by deteriorations in detention without sentencing, weapons crime and the homicide rate. The latter increased by six percent. Furthermore, the gap between the most and least peaceful states widened slightly in 2015, reversing the trend observed in six of the seven prior years. An area of concern is the trend towards increased impunity, which deteriorated dramatically from 2007 onwards. In 2007, there were four convictions for every five cases of homicide, but by 2013 there was only one conviction for every five cases. This, combined with the increases in detention without sentencing, points to an overstretched judicial system, as is further supported by statistics on the over-crowding of prisons. It also highlights the challenges facing the justice system, whose 2015 federal expenditure was 78 billion pesos, below the 2012 level of expenditure. The longer term trends indicate a marked improvement in peacefulness since 2011, the year in which violence peaked in Mexico. The country has improved its peacefulness by 13 percent since that time. Violent crime, homicides and organized crime have all fallen by nearly 30 percent. These improvements mean that twenty-five out of the 32 states in Mexico have become more peaceful since 2011, including four of the five states that ranked at the bottom in that year. These improvements in peace have resulted in roughly 85 percent of The Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico from 2003 to 2015, with new results for 2015. This report aims to deepen the understanding of the trends, patterns and drivers of peace in Mexico, while highlighting the important economic benefits that will flow from a more peaceful society. Details: Sydney, AUS: Institute for Economics and Peace, 2016. 120p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 13, 2016 at: http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Mexico-Peace-Index-2016_English.pdf Year: 2016 Country: Mexico URL: http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Mexico-Peace-Index-2016_English.pdf Shelf Number: 138663 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice SystemsHomicidesViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Goh, Derek Title: An update of long-term trends in violent and property crime in New South Wales: 1990-2015 Summary: Aim: The aim of this paper is to analyse the trends in the rates of annual recorded incidents of 10 categories of property and violent crime for the period 1990 to 2015 in New South Wales (NSW). Method: Offence rates were calculated using criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for the period 1995 to 2015, and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research's recorded crime statistics report series for the period 1990 to 1994. Kendall's trend test was run on the 26 annual rates for each of the 10 offence categories. Results: Some categories of crime in NSW are now at the lowest recorded levels they have been for over 25 years. Comparing per capita rates of crime in 2015 with per capita rates in 1990, lower rates were found for: robbery with a firearm (86% lower); motor vehicle theft (80% lower); break and enter non-dwelling (75% lower); robbery without a weapon (60% lower); break and enter dwelling (58% lower); murder (56% lower) and robbery with a weapon not a firearm (53% lower). Three of the ten offence types analysed in this report were found to have recorded rates higher in 2015 than in 1990: sexual assault (131% higher); other sexual offences (102% higher) and assault (62% higher). Conclusion: In the period since 1990, assault and sexual assault rates recorded significant long term upward trends whilst the other eight offences analysed in this report were trending down or stable. The 2015 recorded sexual assault rate was slightly below the highest in that series (occurring in 2012) and the rate since 2000 has recorded a significant uptrend. Apart from sexual assault and other sexual offences, the remaining eight offence types recorded significant downtrends in recorded rates since 2000. The three robbery and three property crime series all recorded falls of more than 65 per cent since 2000. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2016. 6p. Source: Internet Resource: Issue Paper no. 115: Accessed April 28, 2016 at: http://apo.org.au/files/Resource/report-an-update-of-long-term-trends-in-violent-and-property-crime-in-nsw-bb115.pdf Year: 2016 Country: Australia URL: http://apo.org.au/files/Resource/report-an-update-of-long-term-trends-in-violent-and-property-crime-in-nsw-bb115.pdf Shelf Number: 138833 Keywords: Crime Rates Crime Statistics (Australia) Property CrimeViolent Crime |
Author: Moro, Alessandro Title: Distribution Dynamics of Property Crime Rates in the United States Summary: Using crime data for the 48 continental and conterminous US states and the distribution dynamics approach, this paper detects two distinct phases in the evolution of the property crime distribution: a period of strong convergence (1971-1980) is followed by a tendency towards divergence and bi-modality (1981-2010). Moreover, the analysis reveals that differences in income per capita and police can explain the emergence of a bi-modal shape in the distribution of property crime: in fact, after conditioning on these variables, the bi-modality completely disappears. This empirical evidence is consistent with the predictions of a two region model, that stresses the importance of income inequality in determining the dynamics of the property crime distribution. Details: Venice: Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia, 2016. 35p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper No. 13/SP/2016: Accessed May 31, 2016 at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2771670 Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2771670 Shelf Number: 139241 Keywords: Crime RatesProperty Crime |
Author: Warner, Todd C. Title: Mapping Mobility of Individuals Arrested for Misdemeanors in New York City, 2006-2014 Summary: This study, Mapping Mobility of Individuals Arrested for Misdemeanors in New York City, 2006-2014, aims to inform the NYPD, other criminal justice agencies, social service providers, and community organizations on the geographical allocation of resources for better law enforcement, crime prevention, and community supervision. Key findings from the report are as follows. -In 2014, almost half (48.5 percent) of all individuals arrested for a misdemeanor were arrested outside of their home precinct. Furthermore, if an individual was arrested outside of their home precinct, the arrest most often occurred in an adjacent precinct. -In 2014, almost half (44.6 percent) of all individuals arrested for a misdemeanor in Manhattan did not live in that borough. For other boroughs, individuals arrested there were much more likely to live in that borough: the Bronx (80.8 percent), Brooklyn (83.0 percent), Queens (73.3 percent), and Staten Island (87.0 percent). -In 2014, among home precinct arrests, the most frequent charges were crimes against a person (24.5 percent) and offenses related to marijuana (16.8 percent). -In 2014, of arrests that occurred outside the home precinct, the most frequent charges were property and theft-related (17.7 percent) and vehicle and driving-related (17.2 percent). Details: New York: John Jay College of Criminal Justice, 2016. 116p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 8, 2016 at: http://johnjay.jjay.cuny.edu/report/MobilitymobilityReport.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://johnjay.jjay.cuny.edu/report/MobilitymobilityReport.pdf Shelf Number: 139317 Keywords: Arrest RatesArrestsCrime AnalysisCrime MappingCrime RatesMisdemeanors |
Author: Rosenfeld, Richard Title: Documenting and Explaining the 2015 Homicide Rise: Research Directions Summary: The debate over the size, scope and causes of the homicide increase in 2015 has been largely free of systematic evidence. This paper documents the scale of the homicide increase for a sample of 56 large U.S. cities. It then examines three plausible explanations of the homicide rise: an expansion of urban drug markets fueled by the heroin epidemic, reductions in incarceration resulting in a growing number of released prisoners in the nation's cities, and a "Ferguson effect" resulting from widely publicized incidents of police use of deadly force against minority citizens. The paper concludes with a call for the more frequent and timely release of crime information to address crime problems as they arise. The homicide increase in the nation's large cities was real and nearly unprecedented. It was also heavily concentrated in a few cities with large African-American populations. Empirical explanations of the homicide increase must await future research based on year-end crime data for 2015. Several empirical indicators for assessing the explanations under consideration here are discussed. For example, if the homicide increase resulted from an expansion in urban drug markets, we should observe larger increases in drug-related homicides than those committed under other circumstances. If returning prisoners fueled the homicide increase, that should be reflected in growing numbers of homicides committed by parolees. It will be more difficult to empirically evaluate the so-called Ferguson effect on crime increases, depending on the version of this phenomenon under consideration. The dominant interpretation of the Ferguson effect is that criticism of the police stemming from widely publicized and controversial incidents of the use of force against minority citizens caused the police to disengage from vigorous enforcement activities. Another version of the Ferguson effect, however, switches the focus from changes in police behavior to the longstanding grievances and discontent with policing in African-American communities. In this interpretation, when activated by controversial incidents of police use of force, chronic discontent erupts into violence. The de-policing interpretation of the Ferguson effect can be evaluated with data on arrests and other forms of self-initiated activity by the police. De-policing should be reflected in declining arrest rates in cities experiencing homicide increases. Tracing the pathways from chronic levels of discontent to an escalation in homicide will ultimately require ethnographic studies in minority communities that reveal, for example, whether offenders believe they can engage in crime without fear that residents will contact the police or cooperate in police investigations. Such studies could also disclose other linkages between discontent, police use of force and criminal violence. In summary, the following research questions for documenting and explaining the 2015 homicide rise, at a minimum, should be pursued when the requisite data become available: - How large and widespread was the homicide increase in 2015? Did other crimes also increase? - What conditions drove the homicide increase? Candidate explanations must account for the timing as well as the magnitude and scope of the increase. - What role, if any, did the expansion of drug markets play in the 2015 homicide increase? Was there a relative increase in drug arrests and drug-related homicides? - Did declining imprisonment rates contribute to the 2015 homicide rise? Was the increase greater in cities with more returning prisoners and among parolees? - What role did the Ferguson effect play in the homicide rise? If de-policing contributed to the increase, arrest rates should have declined in cities experiencing the largest homicide increases. An open question is how to evaluate the role, if any, of community discontent with the police. Ethnographic studies, among other methods, should be high on the list of research approaches to identify the mechanisms linking police legitimacy and escalating levels of violence. Researchers would have been in a better position to begin addressing the 2015 homicide rise, with evidence rather than speculation, if timely crime data had been available as the increase was occurring. We would have known whether the homicide rise was confined to large cities, whether other crimes were also increasing, and whether arrest rates were falling. The debate over the homicide increase would have been better informed. Technical impediments to the monthly release of crime data no longer exist. A large and worrisome increase in homicide should be the catalyst to finally bring the nation's crime monitoring system into the 21st century. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, 2016. 31p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 28, 2016 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/249895.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/249895.pdf Shelf Number: 139525 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsHomicidesMurdersViolent Crime |
Author: Dix-Carneiro, Rafael Title: Local Labor Market Conditions and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization Summary: This paper estimates the effect of local labor market conditions on crime in a developing country with high crime rates. Contrary to the previous literature, which has focused exclusively on developed countries with relatively low crime rates, we find that labor market conditions have a strong effect on homicides. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local labor demand. Regions facing more negative shocks experience large relative increases in crime rates in the medium term, but these effects virtually disappear in the long term. This pattern mirrors the labor market responses to the trade shocks. Using the trade liberalization episode to design an instrumental variables strategy, we find that a 10% reduction in expected labor market earnings (employment rate earnings) leads to a 39% increase in homicide rates. Our results highlight an additional dimension of adjustment costs following trade shocks that has so far been overlooked in the literature. Details: Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2016. 60p. Source: Internet Resource: IZA Discussion Paper no. 9638: Accessed August 31, 2016 at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2716579 Year: 2016 Country: Brazil URL: Shelf Number: 140255 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics and CrimeEmployment and CrimeLabor markets |
Author: Newark, Scott Title: Justice on Trial: Inefficiencies and ineffectiveness in the Canadian criminal justice system Summary: Canada's criminal justice system is a vast and complex machine with numerous players whose actions or inactions impact each other: the courts, the police, corrections, and legal professionals. For those Canadians who are exposed to it, whether as victims or accused, delay and inefficiency can cause real hardship. For taxpayers and those who care about effective public policy and public safety, inefficient and ineffective courts create excessive costs and stand in the way of the proper administration of justice. Good justice policy can only be informed by gathering and analysing the right data, but this has rarely been undertaken in Canada. This paper examines the data on crime rates, length of trials, administration of justice offences, and other measures to get a clear picture of a system that is too often beset with delay and inefficiency. The issues could not be timelier, with the Supreme Court of Canada's July 2016 ruling in the case of R. v. Jordan establishing time frames for reasonable lengths of trial. The accused in the case waited more than 49 months from the time of his arrest to his conviction on a drug offence, which the court found was reflective of a "culture of complacency towards delay". The data show that the police-reported adult crime rate is down 25 percent and youth crime is down 47 percent between 2004 and 2014 (although there was a marked increase in violent crime in 2015). Even so, in 2013/14, the median amount of time from an individual's first court appearance to the completion of their case was 123 days (around 4 months), a slight increase from the years prior. So the system overall has been facing fewer cases but taking longer to complete them. Also of note, offences against the "administration of justice" (violating court orders or bail conditions for example) decreased by 7 percent between 2004 and 2014, much less than the 34 percent decline in the overall crime rate, suggesting that the system is dealing with a smaller core of repeat offenders. Additionally, rates of those in jail awaiting trial (or on "remand") have been exacerbated by the practice of the Courts using judicial discretion to award extra credit due to the perceived less pleasant conditions for offenders. Ironically, a result of this approach is to actually reward repeat offenders at sentencing who are properly and lawfully denied bail, and it also creates an incentive for the accused to stay in jail, adding costs to the system. This paper recommends a Criminal Code amendment that permits pre-trial credit at sentencing but expressly precludes it where bail has been denied because of the past criminal conduct of the person charged. In 1990 the Supreme Court of Canada released its decision in the R. v. Askov case, ruling that unjustified delay could constitute a breach of Charter rights. Since then, some defence counsel insist on strict procedural compliance to delay proceedings in an effort to get charges dismissed. What was intended as a shield against abuse has now become a sword to avoid responsibility, and systemic delay is but one of the results. Exacerbating matters, the 1991 Stinchcombe case now mandates disclosure before a preliminary inquiry, which has led to significant delays and calls for its abolition, although this is not feasible because a preliminary inquiry is required by the Charter if the potential punishment is five years or more. But this applies to a wide range of less serious offenses, which have long maximum sentences that are never imposed, including residential break and entry, which has a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. This paper recommends that the Criminal Code should be amended to create select hybrid offences with an option for a sentence of five years less one day, to reduce significantly the number of cases requiring preliminary inquiry. In addition, part XVIII.1 of the Criminal Code regarding mandatory case resolution procedures should be reviewed by the provinces to ensure it is practically achieving the intended result of expediting case processing and resolution. Other promising measures for increasing justice system efficiency include: increasing the jurisdiction of Provincial Courts, simplifying judicial authorizations for evidence gathering and admissibility, changing Legal Aid service delivery models to increase full time salaried counsel and reduce private counsel who bill based on time spent, and more. There is no shortage of reforms to consider. Finally, this paper makes a series of recommendations intended to deal with repeat offenders and administration of justice offences: - Creation of the Criminal Code offence (s. 145) of breach of a condition of conditional release under the Corrections and Conditional Release Act (CCRA); - authorize the Parole Board of Canada to order electronic monitoring of offenders on conditional release; - amend the CCRA to restrict statutory release eligibility to first time federal offenders and require earned parole for repeat federal custody offenders; and - amend the CCRA to expressly restrict parole for convicted non-citizens serving a federal sentence for the purpose of immediate removal from Canada. While the data collected for this report reveal a great deal, there is a wide range of potentially extremely useful data points that should be collected by Statcan or the relevant institutions. Because of the multiple players and processes in the Canadian criminal justice system it is extremely important to identify and track information. The Jordan ruling has articulated the importance of improving justice system efficiency and this paper offers some specific suggestions to achieve that goal. While there will no doubt be institutional resistance to this kind of analysis, the best way to design and implement effective public safety reforms is to gather the relevant information, ask the right questions, and make the appropriate choices. Canadians deserve nothing less. Details: Ottawa, ONT: Macdonald-Laurier Institute, 2016. 44p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 15, 2016 at: http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pdf/MLI_NewarkJusticegood.pdf Year: 2016 Country: Canada URL: http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pdf/MLI_NewarkJusticegood.pdf Shelf Number: 144879 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal CourtsCriminal Justice AdministrationCriminal Justice ReformCriminal Justice SystemsCriminal Trials |
Author: Males, Mike Title: Violent Crime Arrests of Youth in California Expected to Decline through 2020 Summary: This report from the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) predicts ongoing declines in the violent felony arrest rate of California's youth through 2020. The report analyzes past violent felony arrest data for two age groups — children under age 12 and youth ages 12-17 — to identify the relationship between childhood arrest rates today and those of older youth five years in the future. The analysis finds a strong, predictive relationship between the violent felony arrest rates of children under 12 and those of older youth ages 12-17. As such, recent declines in childhood arrest signal continuing and substantial declines in the arrest rate of older youth. The report finds: Arrest data suggest that a decline of 1 arrest per 100,000 children under age 12 would produce a decline of approximately 7.5 arrests per 100,000 12-17-year-old youth five years later. Recent declines in the violent felony arrest rates of children under 12 forecast a decline of 24 percent in the violent felony arrest rate of youth ages 12-17 from 2016 to 2020. This translates into a annual reduction of 1,600 to 1,700 arrests. A decline in the number of youth arrested annually for violent felonies will shrink the pool of youth eligible for commitment to local detention facilities and the state’s Division of Juvenile Justice. Details: San Francisco: Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, 2016. 5p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 7, 2016 at: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/youth_crime_arrest_projections_2020.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/youth_crime_arrest_projections_2020.pdf Shelf Number: 145312 Keywords: Arrest RatesCrime RatesCrime TrendsJuvenile OffendersViolent Crime |
Author: Dustmann, Christian Title: The Effect of Local Area Crime on Mental Health Summary: This paper analyses the effect of local crime rates on residents' mental health. Using longitudinal information on individuals' mental well-being, we address the problem of sorting and endogenous moving behaviour. We find that crime causes considerable mental distress for residents, mainly driven by property crime. Effects are stronger for females, and mainly related to depression and anxiety. The distress caused by one standard deviation increase in local crime is 2-4 times larger than that caused by a one standard deviation decrease in local employment, and about one seventh of the short-term impact of the 7 July 2005 London Bombings. Details: London: Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration Department of Economics, University College London , 2014. 57p. Source: Internet Resource: CReAM Discussion Paper Series, no. 28/14: Accessed November 17, 2016 at: http://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_28_14.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_28_14.pdf Shelf Number: 144855 Keywords: Communities and CrimeCrime RatesFear of CrimeMental HealthNeighborhoods and Crime |
Author: Westermaier, Franz G. Title: The Impact of Lengthening the School Day on Substance Abuse and Crime: Evidence from a German High School Reform Summary: In the 2000s, a major educational reform in Germany reduced the academic high school duration by one year while keeping constant the total number of instructional hours before graduation. The instructional hours from the eliminated school year shifted to lower grade levels, which increased the time younger students spend at school. This study explores the impact of the reform on youth crime rates and substance abuse using administrative police crime statistics, administrative student enrollment data, and a student drug survey. The staggered implementation of the reform in different Lander -age-groups allows for a difference-in-difference approach. I find that the reform resulted in a decline in crime rates, which is almost exclusively driven by a reduction in violent crime and illegal substance abuse. Regarding the latter, the rate of illegal cannabis consumption strongly declined; however, no significant effect is detected on cannabis dealers or the consumption of other illegal drugs. The survey evidence further suggests that decreased cannabis consumption was not driven by a shift of consumption into 'school hours'. The results point to an 'incapacitation' effect of schooling due to the increased instructional hours at lower grade levels. Details: Berlin: DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, 2016. 34p. Source: Internet Resource: Discussion Papers no. 1616: Accessed November 17, 2016 at: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.546486.de/dp1616.pdf Year: 2016 Country: Germany URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.546486.de/dp1616.pdf Shelf Number: 144857 Keywords: Crime RatesDrug Abuse and CrimeMarijuanaSchool ReformSubstance Abuse |
Author: Braakmann, Nils Title: The effect of the 2011 London riots on crime, policing and unemployment Summary: Using street level crime data for London from December 2010 to March 2012 merged with detailed information on crimes committed during the 2011 London riots, I show that crime in areas affected by the riots fell considerably in the months following the riots. I also investigate two potentials channels through which the riots might have influenced future crime rates, specifically unemployment and changes in police deployment. The results suggest increases in unemployment in the affected areas and no change in police deployment in the months after the riots, suggesting that crime fell for other reasons. Details: Munich: Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 2012. 33p. Source: Internet Resource: MPRA Paper No. 44883: Accessed December 7, 2016 at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44883/1/MPRA_paper_44883.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44883/1/MPRA_paper_44883.pdf Shelf Number: 140339 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics of Crime Policing Riots Unemployment |
Author: Kabia, Victor Sylvester Title: The Relationship Between Increased Police Patrols and Violent Crime Rates in Seven United States Cities Summary: Large, metropolitan areas across the nation have experienced high rates of violent crime over the past 2 decades. As a consequence, law enforcement agencies have increased patrol efforts, but little is known about whether the decrease in violent crime rates was correlated to increased police patrols or to the economic variables of unemployment, inflation, level of education, unemployment compensation, and home-ownership. The purpose of this non-experimental, correlational study was to examine the nature of the relationship between increased police patrols, the 5 economic variables, and violent crime rates in 7 large US cities for a 10-year period. The theoretical framework for this study was based on Paternoster's deterrence theory and Becker's economic theory of crime causation. Data were acquired from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and used a sample of 114 cases of reported violent crimes for each city included in the study for the years 2000 – 2010 (n = 798). A multiple regression analysis was initially performed with inconclusive results. Spearman's correlations between each of the independent and dependent variables of violent crime indicated that all the independent variables except for home-ownership had statistically significant inverse correlations with violent crime rates. The findings of this study may be used by law enforcement agencies and policy makers to develop crime prevention interventions that address those economic factors associated with violent crime, thereby promoting positive social change through creating safer communities. Details: Minneapolis, MN: Walden University, 2016. 156p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed December 10, 2016 at: http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3420&context=dissertations Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3420&context=dissertations Shelf Number: 146044 Keywords: Communities and CrimeCrime RatesPolice EffectivenessPolice PatrolsSocioeconomic conditions and CrimeUrban Areas and CrimeViolent Crime |
Author: Cerro, Ana Maria Title: Business cycles and crime: The case of Argentina Summary: This study focus on the relationship between crime and business cycle in Argentina, at national and provincial level, using monthly time series for the period 1999-2008. For that end we examine the presence of common factors (interpreted as cyclical components) driving the dynamics of a set of types of crimes and monthly economic activity indicators (EMAE and ISAP). By means of Dynamic Factor Models we identify which type of crime is related to business cycle and if these crimes are leading, lagging or coincident. We find a strong counter-cyclical relationship between total and property crime rates and its typologies and business cycle. Additionally these series are slightly lagged with respect to business cycle. On the other hand, crimes against persons are found to be pro-cyclical and coincident. Details: Munich: Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 2012. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: MPRA Paper No. 44515: Accessed December 14, 2016 at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44515/1/MPRA_paper_44515.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Argentina URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44515/1/MPRA_paper_44515.pdf Shelf Number: 144916 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics and Crime |
Author: Madanlo, Lalaine Title: Simultaneity of Crime Incidence in Mindanao Summary: The study simulated the predictive relationships of regional monthly crime rates for a period covering January 2009 to July 2013. A six-equation model representing the six regions in Mindanao was estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The SUR estimation shows that the increase of incidences of crimes in Southern Mindanao Region and SOCCSKSARGEN tended a 1.73% rise and 0.85% reduction in crime incidences in Zamboanga Peninsula. Monthly crime rates in Northern Mindanao increases crime rates in Southern Mindanao (1.1%), SOCCSKSARGEN (1.29%), CARAGA (0.22%) and ARMM (0.96%). Southern Mindanao yielded simultaneous increase in crimes with Zamboanga Peninsula (0.21%) and Northern Mindanao (0.36%); yet a drop in crimes in CARAGA (0.08%) and ARMM (0.29%). SOCCSKSARGEN's crime rates rise simultaneously by 0.39% in every percentage increase of crime rates in Northern Mindanao yet plunged by about 0.09% and 0.50% when crimes rise by a notch higher in Zamboanga Peninsula and ARMM. CARAGA posted 0.97% increase and 1.07% decrease of crime rates upon the rise of crime rates Northern Mindanao and Southern Mindanao. Lastly, crime rates in ARMM, on the other hand, tend to increase by 0.63% upon the rise of the same in Northern Mindanao and dipped by 0.58% and 1.09% in simultaneity with Southern Mindanao and SOCCSKSARGEN. Details: Munich: Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 2016. 16p. Source: Internet Resource: MPRA Paper No. 72648: Accessed December 14, 2016 at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72648/1/MPRA_paper_72648.PDF Year: 2016 Country: Philippines URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72648/1/MPRA_paper_72648.PDF Shelf Number: 144915 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics |
Author: Dix-Carneiro, Rafael Title: Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization Summary: This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade-induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain bounds on the effect of labor market conditions on crime. Our results indicate that this channel accounts for 75 to 93 percent of the effect of the trade-induced shocks on crime. Details: Durham, NC: Duke University, 2016. 56p. Source: Internet Resource: Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 242 : Accessed February 13, 2017 at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2895107 Year: 2016 Country: Brazil URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2895107 Shelf Number: 145121 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics and CrimeEmployment and CrimeLabor MarketsSocioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: Carreon Rodriguez, Victor G. Title: Economic Analysis of Theft Reporting: The Case of Mexico City Summary: Theft is the major component of crime rates in Mexico City and its reporting remains low and stable even when the budget assigned to federal public security reached an increase of 202.23% in 2006-2010. We develop a utility maximization model that attempts to explain the incentives that individuals face when theft reporting and we empirically verify it. We empirically verify a direct relationship between theft reporting and the recovered proportion of what is robbed. Also, we find an inverse relationship between theft reporting and (i) its price, and (ii) theft itself. Details: Mexico: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas A.C., 2013. 22p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 23, 2017 at: http://www.libreriacide.com/librospdf/DTE-568.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Mexico URL: http://www.libreriacide.com/librospdf/DTE-568.pdf Shelf Number: 141204 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics of CrimeTheft |
Author: Friedman, Matthew Title: Crime Trends: 1990-2016 Summary: This report examines crime trends at the national and city level during the last quarter century. It covers the years 1990 through 2016, as crime rates peaked in 1991. It analyzes data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and from police departments from the nation's 30 largest cities. Data for 2016 are estimated, as full year data was not available at the time of publication. This report concludes that although there are some troubling increases in crime in specific cities, there is no evidence of a national crime wave. Key findings: Overall Trends: Crime has dropped precipitously in the last quarter-century. While crime may fall in some years and rise in others, annual variations are not indicative of long-term trends. While murder rates have increased in some cities, this report finds no evidence that the hard-won public safety gains of the last two and a half decades are being reversed. Overall Crime Rate: The national crime rate peaked in 1991 at 5,856 crimes per 100,000 people, and has generally been declining ever since. In 2015, crime fell for the 14th year in a row. Estimates based on preliminary data for 2016 indicate that the overall crime rate will remain stable at 2,857 offenses per 100,000, rising less than 1 percent from 2015. Today's crime rate is less than half of what it was in 1991. Violent Crime: The violent crime rate also peaked in 1991 at 716 violent crimes per 100,000, and now stands at 366, about half that rate. However, the violent crime rate, like rates of murder and overall crime, has risen and fallen during this time. For example, violent crime registered small increases in 2005 and 2006, and then resumed its downward trend. In 2015, violent crime increased by 2.9 percent nationally and by 2.0 percent in the nation's 30 largest cities. Preliminary data for 2016 also show a greater increase in the national violent crime rate, up 6.3 percent, and a smaller jump in the 30 largest cities, 2.4 percent. Crime is often driven by local factors, so rates in cities may differ from national averages. Murder: From 1991 to 2016, the murder rate fell by roughly half, from 9.8 killings per 100,000 to 5.3. The murder rate rose last year by an estimated 7.8 percent. With violence at historic lows, modest increases in the murder rate may appear large in percentage terms. Similarly, murder rates in the 30 largest cities increased by 13.2 percent in 2015 and an estimated 14 percent in 2016. These increases were highly concentrated. More than half of the 2015 urban increase (51.8 percent) was caused by just three cities, Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. And Chicago alone was responsible for 43.7 percent of the rise in urban murders in 2016. It is important to remember the relatively small base from which the percentage increases are calculated. City-Level Analysis: Appendix A provides detail on crime in each of the nation's 30 largest cities. The data demonstrate that crime rates and trends vary widely from city to city. In New York, for example, crime remains at all-time lows. Other cities, such as Washington, D.C., have seen murder rise and then fall recently, yet the rate is still lower than it was a decade ago. However, there are a small group of cities, such as Chicago, where murder remains persistently high, even by historical standards. Details: New York: Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law, 2017. 36p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 21, 2017 at: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Crime%20Trends%201990-2016.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Crime%20Trends%201990-2016.pdf Shelf Number: 145144 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends |
Author: Anadi, Ngozi Obeta Title: The Impact of Three Strikes Laws on Crime Rates in the United States: A Panel Data Analysis Summary: Persistent high levels of crime is of an increasing concern to the general public because of the fear of loss of lives and property. One of the tools used by government to deal with high crime rates is the enactment of stricter policies and regulations. Between 1993 and 1995, many states in the United States enacted Three-Strikes Legislation, increasing prison terms for repeat offenders with the hope of reducing crime rates and promoting public safety. However, whether these laws are effective or not is subject to debate. Relying on the fixed effects estimation and state-level panel data from the 50 states of the United States (U.S) for the period 1980-2009, this study assesses the impact of three-strikes laws on crime rates in the U.S, controlling the effects of demographic and economic variables. The results show that three strikes laws have an overall statistically insignificant positive relationship with crime rates. The deterrent and incapacitation effects of three strikes laws disappear the moment other factors are controlled. Details: Baton Rouge, LA: Southern University and A&M College, 2011. 114p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed May 6, 2017 at: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/doc/914372134.html?FMT=ABS Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/doc/914372134.html?FMT=ABS Shelf Number: 145342 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice PolicyRepeat OffendersThree Strikes Laws |
Author: Montenegro, Santiago Title: Falling Kidnapping Rates and the Expansion of Mobile Phones in Colombia Summary: This paper tries to explain why kidnapping has fallen so dramatically in Colombia during the period 2000-2008. The widely held belief is that the falling kidnapping rates can basically be explained as a consequence of the success of President Alvaro Uribe's democratic security policy. Without providing conclusive alternative explanations, some academic papers have expressed doubts about Uribe's security policy being the main cause of this phenomenon. While we consider the democratic security policy as constituting a necessary condition behind Colombia's falling kidnapping rates, we argue in this paper that a complementary condition underlying this phenomenon has been the significant increase during this period in the speed and quality of communications between potential victims and public security forces. In this sense, the expansion of the mobile phone industry in Colombia implies that there has been a substantial reduction in information asymmetries between kidnappers and targeted citizens. This has led to a higher level of deterrence as well as to higher costs for perpetrating this type of crime. This has resulted in a virtuous circle: improved security allows higher investments in telecommunications around the country, which in turn lead to faster communications between citizens and security forces, which consequently leads to greater security. We introduce a Becker-Ehrlich type supply and demand model for kidnappings. Using regional and departmental data on kidnapping, the police and mobile phones, we show that mobile phone network expansion has expanded the effective coverage of public protection; this, in turn, has led to a spectacular reduction in kidnapping rates. Details: Bogota: Universidad de los AndesFacultad de EconomaCede, 2009.. 40p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 13, 2017 at: https://economia.uniandes.edu.co/components/com_booklibrary/ebooks/dcede2009-32.pdf Year: 2009 Country: Colombia URL: https://economia.uniandes.edu.co/components/com_booklibrary/ebooks/dcede2009-32.pdf Shelf Number: 145471 Keywords: Crime RatesKidnapping Mobile Phones |
Author: Jamaica. Ministry of National Security Title: National Crime & Victimization Survey 2015: Final Report Summary: The purpose-built Citizen Security Programme (CSP) is an initiative of the Ministry of National Security, co-funded by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). Created in 2007, the CSP's mandate is to reduce violent crime and increase collective efficacy and perceptions of safety in high needs communities throughout Trinidad and Tobago. At onset, twentytwo (22) communities were chosen for participation in CSP programming based on the higher crime rates of crime experienced therein. In 2007, a Crime and Violence Perception Survey (CVS 2007) was conducted in nineteen (19) of these communities, i.e. all, save those in Tobago. This survey determined not only baseline values for crime victimization, but also community perceptions on a range of social attitudes, cultural norms and feelings and practices regarding safety. Subsequently, CSP has conducted programming in all 22 communities, based in part on the intelligence gleaned from the results of the CVS 2007. In 2015, a second round of the CVS survey was commissioned to establish if and by how much victimization rates and various perceptions about crime, safety and social behaviour in these communities had changed in comparison to the 2007 baseline. There were adjustments in methodology for the Crime and Victimization Survey in 2015 (CVS 2015), including expanded survey coverage and a revised instrument. In 2015, the sample included respondents from the: - 19 original Trinidad CSP communities - for comparative purposes - 3 Tobago CSP communities - to capture mid-stream data - 10 new East Port of Spain CSP communities - to determine a baseline - the nationwide distribution of non-CSP communities - to provide national context The expanded coverage allows analysis of the current survey to determine changes since 2007 and to present national statistics as an additional reference point. In addition, the CVS 2015 will also establish baseline values for the ten East Port of Spain communities earmarked for inclusion in CSP programming. While the CVS 2015 retains the core of the original survey instrument, it has been streamlined to make it more amenable to the public and also includes a new section on Gun and Gang Violence. Details: Port-of-Spain: Citizen Security Programme, Ministry of National Security, 2015. 108p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 5, 2017 at: cso.gov.tt/ Year: 2015 Country: Jamaica URL: cso.gov.tt/ Shelf Number: 145928 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime SurveyGangsGun ViolenceVictimization Survey |
Author: Ferroni, Matteo Francesco Title: Which are the Causes of Criminality in Brazil? Summary: The objective of this study is to better understand the determinants of criminality rate in Brazil, more specifically the determinants of homicides. I based myself on Becker's model of criminal rational behavior. After selecting some economical and sociological variables, I run a cross sectional regression using the data of 2010 from 608 Brazilian municipalities. My main result suggests that inequality has an impact on the homicide rate while poverty does not. Furthermore, there is evidence proving that urbanization and unemployment are positively related to the homicides, whereas education is negatively related. On the other hand the age composition of the population is positively related only until a certain level. Details: Unpublished paper, 2014. 39p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 4, 2017 at: http://www.economicsocietybocconi.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ferroni1.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Brazil URL: http://www.economicsocietybocconi.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ferroni1.pdf Shelf Number: 146728 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics of CrimeInequality and CrimePovertySocioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: Grawert, Ames C. Title: Crime in 2017: A Preliminary Analysis Summary: For this analysis, researchers at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law collected crime data directly from local police departments in America's 30 largest cities, and then used historical trends to estimate 2017 year-end crime numbers. Several key findings include: - The overall crime rate in 2017 is projected to decrease slightly, by 1.8 percent. If this estimate holds, 2017 will have the second-lowest crime rate since 1990. - The violent crime rate is projected to decrease slightly, by 0.6 percent, essentially remaining stable. This result is driven primarily by stabilization in Chicago, and declines in Washington, D.C., two large cities that experienced increases in violence in recent years. The violent crime rate for this year is projected to be about 1 percent above 2014's violent crime rate, the lowest recorded since 1990. - The 2017 murder rate is projected to be 2.5 percent lower than last year. This year's decline is driven primarily by decreases in Detroit (down 25.6 percent), Houston (down 20.5 percent), and New York (down 19.1 percent). Chicago's murder rate is also projected to fall, by 2.4 percent. The 2017 murder rate is expected to be on par with that of 2009, well at the bottom of the historic post-1990 decline, yet still higher than the lowest recorded rate in 2013. - While crime is down this year, some cities are projected to experience localized increases. For example, Charlotte's murder rate doubled in the first six months of 2017 relative to last year. Detailed graphs on each of the 30 cities where data was available is included in Section III. Details: New York: Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, 2017. 15p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 7, 2017 at: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Crime%20in%202017%20A%20Preliminary%20Analysis_0.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Crime%20in%202017%20A%20Preliminary%20Analysis_0.pdf Shelf Number: 147142 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsHomicides |
Author: Piccone, Ted Title: Democracy and Violent Crime Summary: In preparation for the Community of Democracies' Democracy and Security Dialogue, Brookings Institution researchers analyzed the relationship between democracy and violent crime from 2000-14. Without controlling for other variables, we found that countries with low homicide rates tend to be strong autocracies and strong democracies, whereas democratically weaker regimes are more likely to have higher levels of homicide. This paper is organized as follows. First, we outline the extant literature on democracy and crime before detailing how we conceptualize and measure these two variables. Second, we analyze the relationship between these two variables. We conclude with a discussion of our results. This paper conducts a bivariate analysis of the relationship between democracy and crime, specifically homicide rates. The following analysis compares levels of democracy and homicide rates in 83 countries during the years 2000 through 2014. These 83 countries were chosen because they were the only ones with sufficient reliable data available, as discussed below. Overall, Europe, North America, Latin America, and parts of Asia are well represented in our sample and the rest of the world is underrepresented. Details: Washington, DC: Brookings Institute, 2017. 20p. Source: Internet Resource: Democracy and Security Dialogue Working Paper Series: Accessed September 14, 2017 at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/fp_20170905_democracy_crime_working_paper.pdf Year: 2017 Country: International URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/fp_20170905_democracy_crime_working_paper.pdf Shelf Number: 147242 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics Homicides Violent Crime |
Author: Frederick, Bruce Title: Measuring Public Safety: Responsibly Interpreting Statistics on Violent Crime Summary: With a few hyper-localized exceptions that require targeted attention, violent crime rates are lower today than they have been at any point over the past four decades. However, this era of public safety has been misrepresented by some media reports and public commentary concluding that violent crime increases in a few cities equal a sweeping national problem. This brief examines those erroneous conclusions about current crime trends - using both existing and original research - and describes how to avoid common pitfalls when interpreting statistics on violent crime. Violent crime remains near its lowest point in decades and fears of a new violent crime wave are unfounded. Crime rates fluctuate over time and it is important that any discussion of statistics on violent crime takes account of these natural variations. Details: New York: Vera Institute of Justice, 2017. 10p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 26, 2017 at: https://storage.googleapis.com/vera-web-assets/downloads/Publications/for-the-record-measuring-public-safety-statistics-violent-crime/legacy_downloads/for-the-record-measuring-public-safety_02.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: https://storage.googleapis.com/vera-web-assets/downloads/Publications/for-the-record-measuring-public-safety-statistics-violent-crime/legacy_downloads/for-the-record-measuring-public-safety_02.pdf Shelf Number: 147456 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics Violence Violent Crime |
Author: Friehe, Tim Title: On Punishment Severity and Crime Rates Summary: Punishment severity and crime rates vary across jurisdictions. Some countries have punitive sanctions and nevertheless experience relatively high crime rates. This paper explores potential sources of the interjurisdictional heterogeneity in the optimal law enforcement model, paying particular attention to the possibility that the high crime despite high sanctions outcome can be socially optimal. Details: Storrs, CT: University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, 2016. 20p. Source: Internet Resource: Department of Economics Working Paper Series, Working Paper 2016-38: Accessed December 1, 2017 at: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2016-38.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2016-38.pdf Shelf Number: 148671 Keywords: Crime RatesDeterrence Punishment |
Author: San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) Title: Arrests 2016: Law Enforcement Response to Crime in the San Diego Region Summary: The Criminal Justice Research Division of the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) functions as the Clearinghouse for regional criminal justice information. On an annual basis, the Division prepares a report on local criminal justice agencies' response to crime in the region, as measured by arrest statistics. Because arrest statistics include information regarding whether the suspect is an adult or juvenile, and include a greater variety of crime types than are reported in regional crime reports (e.g., alcohol/drugrelated offenses), this information provides an added dimension for understanding the nature of crime and another measure that can be used in justice system planning. This CJ Bulletin includes regional arrest rates per 1,000 for both the adult and juvenile population, as well as numbers of arrests by offense type. In addition, 42 supplemental tables, which include statistics for individual jurisdictions, are presented. Some points to remember when interpreting these numbers include the following: - Similar to how the FBI counts reported crimes, the offense or charge attributed to an arrest reflects only the most serious out of potentially multiple violations included in the arrest. - Arrests are documented by the location at which the arrest occurred and cannot be assumed to have any relationship to the location of the crime incident or the residence of the alleged offender. - Arrest and crime rates and numbers should not be compared to one another. One reason is that the two events may occur in two entirely different periods of time, with an arrest made months or even years after the related crime was reported. - For youth, even though contact with law enforcement is made and an arrest report is taken, diversion to a community-based or other type of program or release to a parent or guardian may occur as an alternative to juvenile justice system processing. - The data presented here were provided by the California Department of Justice through a public records request. While these are official numbers reported to and by the State, it is important to note they may vary from other sources that could be available. Highlights - The arrest rates in San Diego County for both adults and juveniles were at ten-year lows in 2016, with a 23 percent drop for adults and a 66 percent drop for juveniles since 2007 (page 4). - In 2015, the year following the passage of Proposition 47 (Prop 47), which reduced certain property- and drug-related offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, the felony arrest rate decreased 28 percent and the misdemeanor arrest rate increased 11 percent. In 2016, the felony arrest rate decreased slightly from 2015 (-2%), but interestingly, the misdemeanor arrest rate declined also, and to a greater degree (-4%) (page 4). - San Diego County had the second highest adult and juvenile arrest rates of the five largest California counties in 2016, following only San Bernardino (page 5). - In 2016, 226 adult arrests and 15 juvenile arrests were made per day on average in the San Diego region (page 6). - Since 2007, the proportion of all adult arrests that were alcohol/drug-related decreased from around half (51%) to about two in five (41%). Over the same time, the proportion of property arrests that were at the felony-level decreased (from 73% to 45%), as did those in the alcohol/drug category (from 17% to 8%) (pages 7 and 8) Details: San Diego: SANDAG, 2018. 54p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 29, 2018 at: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_4478_23326.pdf Year: 2018 Country: United States URL: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_4478_23326.pdf Shelf Number: 149616 Keywords: Arrests and ApprehensionsCrime RatesCrime Statistics |
Author: Weisser, Michael Title: Where are all the Guns? Summary: A detailed analysis of background check data correlated with gun-violence rates and gun laws for all 50 states. Paper shows that gun-violence rates may correlate more positively with gun ownership rates than with the strength of gun regulations. Paper also covers relevant bibliography. Details: Unpublished paper, 2018. 16p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 9, 2018 at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3167983 Year: 2018 Country: United States URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3167983 Shelf Number: 150124 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Background ChecksGun PolicyGun ViolenceGun-Related ViolenceHomicidesRight to CarryViolent Crime |
Author: Laan, A.M. van der Title: Juvenile Crime Monitor 2017. Developments in registered juvenile crime from 2000 to 2017 Summary: The Juvenile Crime Monitor 2017 describes developments in juvenile crime registered by the police, the Public Prosecution Service and the courts from 2000 to 2017. The aim of the Juvenile Crime Monitor program is to provide a broad overview of developments in juvenile crime from various sources, and to discuss and compare these developments. The different sources in the latest Monitor include: police records of juvenile suspects, sentencing records of juvenile criminal offenders, and judicial statistics from other countries as well. The 2015 edition of the Juvenile Crime Monitor also included self-report measures of offending behavior by Dutch juveniles, which are obtained from a representative sample every five years. Juveniles are individuals between the ages of 12 and 23 years old. Besides describing developments in registered juvenile crime on the national level, the current edition also examines youth crime in so-called hots spots and (selected) municipalities and also the developments of juvenile crime in neighbouring countries. Significant trends from 2012 to 2017 Trends in registered juvenile crime are predominantly decreasing To examine whether the more long term decrease in juvenile crime (see figure S1) is also prevalent at the regional level, among specific subgroups, and for all types of criminal behaviour, more in-depth examinations are performed for the years 2012 to 2017. For specific regions, subgroups and types of offenses, the developments in juvenile crime, too, exhibit a downwards trend. The level of juvenile crime in 2016 is predominantly below the level of crime in 2012, regardless of region or subgroup. That said, the magnitude of the observed crime drop does differ per region or subgroup. Moreover, for some of these regions or subgroups juvenile crime does not decrease year after year, as there are isolated cases of juvenile crime levels remaining stable or even increasing. Juvenile crime drop is prevalent among all age groups, most delinquent group becomes slightly older Registered crime decreased for all age groups from 2007 to 2017. While 18- to 21- year-olds were mostly overrepresented in the juvenile criminal offender population up to and through 2012, the upper age range of the most delinquent group expands to 25 years after 2012. Juvenile crime drops annually at the national level, intermittently at the municipal level, but with variation at the level of neighbourhoods The decrease in juvenile crime is observed regardless of where juvenile suspects live or in which cities juvenile offenders commit crimes. However, the decrease in juvenile crime is not annually for each of the observed municipalities, but can be characterized as a intermittent drop. Also, at the more local level of neighbourhoods there is significant variation in the magnitude of the juvenile crime drop. For instance, in hot spots (i.e., neighbourhoods with relatively high levels of juvenile crime) the level of juvenile crime decreases more strongly than the national average, but less so or not at all in other neighbourhoods. The number of juveniles sentenced for digitalized and cybercrime is small, and is (still) not clearly identifiable in registration sources on the national level. The number of juveniles sentenced for digitalized or cybercrime consist of less than 1% of all juvenile criminal offenders. This figure significantly underestimates the number of juveniles who are actually involved in digitalized and cybercrime, because these types of offenders are not yet clearly identifiable in police and court records on the national level. Greatest decrease in sanctions against juvenile offenders was from 2007 to 2013, afterwards the decrease weakens The number of juveniles sanctioned with alternative community sentences issued by the organisation Halt, as well as the number of sanctions issued by the Publication Prosecution Service and the courts, decreases from 2007 to 2017. Up to 2013 this decrease was relatively strong, though it weakens afterwards. Particularly, the number of juveniles with a Halt referral stabilizes in recent years. This recent stability could be in part due to the introduction of the so-called Halt+ variant, which was introduced in 2013 and stimulates the referral of juvenile suspects and offenders to Halt by the Public Prosecution Service. Also, the general decrease of the number of imposed sanctions is not observed for all types of sanctions. For example, the number of transactions (which are out-ofcourt settlements, usually involving a fine or community service) drops more sharply than penalty orders, which suggests that the latter is replacing the former (as intended by lawmakers). Number of juvenile reoffenders decreases The percentage of 12- to 18-year-olds and 18- to 25-year-olds that reoffend after at least one prior conviction decreases, though to a lesser extent than the general juvenile crime drop. In other words, while there is a general decrease in the number of juvenile offenders, the recidivism among those that remain remains more or less stable over time (whereas the latest cohort seems to show a slight increase in recidivism). Prosecution of young adults as minors increases Although there has been a decrease in the number of young adult criminal offenders, the percentage of criminal cases (with preliminary judgments) against young adults where they are sanctioned according to juvenile law increases. Juvenile crime drop internationally observed The Dutch drop in registered juvenile crime is not on its own. There is a similar decrease in the number of juvenile suspects and convicts in other countries as well, for 2007 to 2015. But, the number of registered juvenile suspects and convicts does fall more rapidly in the Netherlands, when compared with neighbouring nations. Possible explanations for the juvenile crime drop A monitor, such as the Juvenile Crime Monitor, is primarily a descriptive entity, and not necessarily means to clarify or explain observed developments. Still, some explanations for the juvenile crime drop are discussed, such as: - Changes in registration practises, priority shifts regarding investigating juvenile crime as well as changes in police protocols have led to a shortage in enforcement practises, which may have contributed to the registered juvenile crime drop. - The crime debut hypothesis suggests that an increase in security measures has made it more difficult for criminals to successfully commit crimes, particularly among less experienced offenders of property crimes, thus preventing criminal careers from 'taking off'. - The social media hypothesis suggests that the registered drop in juvenile crime could be due to the increased digitalization of society, which includes, but is not limited to, the increased use of social media and mobile devices. - The changing sociocultural attitude hypothesis suggests that the downward development in juvenile crime is due to a changing sociocultural attitude among juveniles and parents towards risky behaviour, such as alcohol consumption, dropping out of school or delinquency. Conclusion Since 2007, juvenile crime has decreased in the Netherlands. This crime drop is observable in the registrations of the police and the judicial authorities as well as in self-report measures of juveniles themselves (see the Juvenile Crime Monitor 2015 for the results regarding self-report). The observed juvenile crime drop that started in 2007 continues up to 2017. Although the magnitude of the juvenile crime drop differs per region, subgroup or type of crime, and is not always annually, the overall trend shows a decrease in registered juvenile crime. That said, the monitor concerns registered juvenile crime. Hence, the monitor only concerns a part of all juvenile crime. It is likely that the juvenile crime registered by police is dropping more sharply than actual juvenile crime, for instance, due to changes in registration practices. A juvenile crime drop is also observed internationally, in countries surrounding the Netherlands, though the decrease in crime appears to be largest in the Netherlands. Details: The Hague: WODC, 2018. 4p. Source: Internet Resource: Cahiers 2018-01: Accessed May 11, 2018 at: https://www.wodc.nl/binaries/Cahier%202018-1_2849a_Summary_tcm28-306192.pdf - English Summary Only Year: 2018 Country: Netherlands URL: https://www.wodc.nl/binaries/Cahier%202018-1_2849a_Summary_tcm28-306192.pdf Shelf Number: 150168 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsJuvenile DelinquentsJuvenile Offenders |
Author: Kumar, Surender Title: Crime and Economic Growth: Evidence from India Summary: This paper empirically examines the causality between crime rates and economic growth using state level data in India. A reduced form equation has been estimated using instrumental variable approach to correct for joint endogeneity between crime and economic growth. Higher crimes may reduce level of per capita income and its growth rate. Controlling intentional homicide and robbery rates in each of the states to the minimum level they observed during 1991-2011 period, the predicted annual growth in per capita income could have been higher by 1.57 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. The average annual gain in growth rate by bringing down the homicide rate at a level of national minimum could be 0.62 percentage points. Note that the loss in growth rate is lower or negative in the states that have higher per capita income. Details: Munich: Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA), 2013. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: MPRA Paper No. 48794: Accessed May 21, 2018 at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48794/1/MPRA_paper_48794.pdf Year: 2013 Country: India URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48794/1/MPRA_paper_48794.pdf Shelf Number: 150320 Keywords: Crime and Economics Crime RatesSocioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: Great Britain. Office for National Statistics Title: Crime in England and Wales: year ending December 2017 Summary: While crime has fallen over the long-term, the short-term picture is more stable with most types of crime staying at similar levels to 2016. It is too early to say whether this indicates a change to the overall trend or simply a pause, which has happened before. The exceptions to this stable picture are rises in some types of theft and in lower-volume but higher-harm types of violence, and a fall in the high-volume offence of computer misuse. As these figures cover a broad range of crime types and there is variation in the trends by crime type, it is better to consider the different types individually to understand these changes. A fall in crime estimated by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) was mainly driven by a 28% decrease in computer misuse offences, largely due to a decline in computer viruses. For offences that are well recorded by the police, police recorded crime data provide insight into areas that the survey does not cover well. These include the less frequent but higher-harm violent offences, which showed rises: a 22% increase in offences involving knives or other sharp instruments an 11% increase in firearms offences These offences tend to be disproportionately concentrated in London and other metropolitan areas. There was also evidence of a rise in vehicle-related theft offences, with the latest CSEW estimates showing a 17% increase compared with the previous year. This is consistent with rises seen in the number of vehicle-related theft offences recorded by the police. Police figures also indicate a rise in burglary (9% increase), which is thought to reflect a genuine increase in this type of crime. To put these figures into context, most people do not experience crime. In the year ending December 2017, 8 in 10 adults were not a victim of any of the crimes asked about in the CSEW. Many of the findings reported in this bulletin are consistent with those reported in the year ending September 2017 bulletin, released in January 2018. Important points for interpreting figures in this bulletin An increase in the number of crimes recorded by the police does not necessarily mean the level of crime has increased. For many types of crime, police recorded crime statistics do not provide a reliable measure of levels or trends in crime. They only cover crimes that come to the attention of the police and can be affected by changes in policing activity and recording practice and by willingness of victims to report. The CSEW does not cover crimes against businesses or those not resident in households and is not well-suited to measuring trends in some of the more harmful crimes that occur in relatively low volumes. For offences that are well recorded by the police, police figures provide a useful supplement to the survey and provide insight into areas that the survey does not cover well. Details: London: Office for National Statistics, 2018. 65p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 23, 2018 at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2017 Year: 2018 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingdecember2017 Shelf Number: 150329 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime Statistics |
Author: Bird, Mia Title: The Impact of Proposition 47 on Crime and Recidivism Summary: Passed by voters in November 2014, Proposition 47 brought broad and significant changes to California's criminal justice system. Undertaken in the wake of public safety realignment in 2011, Proposition 47 reduced the penalties for certain lower-level drug and property offenses and represented a further step in prioritizing prison and jail space for higher-level offenders. The policy has sparked continued debate around two key questions: Did Proposition 47 increase crime? We find no evidence that violent crime increased as a result of Proposition 47. While California saw an uptick in the violent crime rate from 2014 to 2016, this trend appears to have preceded the reform and is due in large part to unrelated changes in crime reporting after 2014. We find some evidence that Proposition 47 affected property crime. Statewide, property crime increased after 2014. While the reform had no apparent impact on burglaries or auto thefts, it may have contributed to a rise in larceny thefts, which increased by roughly 9 percent (about 135 more thefts per 100,000 residents) compared to other states. Crime data show that thefts from motor vehicles account for about three-quarters of this increase. Despite recent upticks, California's crime rates remain comparable to the low rates observed in the 1960s-even with the dramatic reductions in incarceration ushered in by recent criminal justice reforms. Did Proposition 47 reduce recidivism? Recidivism rates decreased due to Proposition 47. Using data from 12 California counties, we find that among individuals released after serving sentences for Proposition 47 offenses, the two-year rearrest rate was 70.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than for similar individuals released before the reform. The two-year reconviction rate for individuals released under Proposition 47 was 46.0 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than their pre-reform counterparts. These overall declines were driven by substantial reductions in recidivism rates for Proposition 47 offenses. Rearrest and reconviction rates for these offenses were 10.3 and 11.3 percentage points lower, respectively, than for similar individuals before the reform. Our findings suggest that the measure reduced both arrests by law enforcement and convictions resulting from prosecutions by district attorneys. However, we are not able to separate the reform's effects on reoffending from its effects on the practices of criminal justice agencies. Proposition 47 redirected the savings from reduced incarceration to treatment interventions, with the goal of reducing recidivism. While it is too early to know if this shift in funding has affected recidivism rates, in the coming years the state and counties will be better able to assess the impact of increased interventions and to identify promising strategies. As California continues to pursue criminal justice reforms, understanding the effects of Proposition 47 and local treatment programs will be essential to achieving further reductions in recidivism and maintaining public safety. Details: San Francisco: Public Policy Institute of California, 2018. 32p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 13, 2018 at: http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/r_0618mbr.pdf Year: 2018 Country: United States URL: http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/r_0618mbr.pdf Shelf Number: 150527 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal Justice ReformCriminal Justice SystemsProposition 47Public Safety RealignmentRecidivismTreatment Programs |
Author: Zhang, Haimin Title: Immigration and Crime: Evidence from Canada Summary: There is growing belief in many developed countries, including Canada, that the large influx of the foreign-born population increases crime. Despite the heated public discussion, the immigrant-crime relationship is understudied in the literature. This paper identifies the causal linkages between immigration and crime using panel data constructed from the Uniform Crime Reporting Survey and the master files of the Census of Canada. This paper distinguishes immigrants by their years in Canada and defines three groups: new immigrants, recent immigrants and established immigrants. An instrumental variable strategy based on the historical ethnic distribution is used to correct for the endogenous location choice of immigrants. Two robust patterns emerge. First, new immigrants do not have a significant impact on the property crime rate, but with time spent in Canada, a 10% increase in the recent-immigrant share or established-immigrant share decreases the property crime rate by 2% to 3%. Neither underreporting to police nor the dilution of the criminal pool by the addition of law-abiding immigrants can fully explain the size of the estimates. This suggests that immigration has a spillover e↵ect, such as changing neighbourhood characteristics, which reduces crime rates in the long run. Second, IV estimates are consistently more negative than their OLS counterparts. By not correctly identifying the causal channel, OLS estimation leads to the incorrect conclusion that immigration is associated with higher crime rates. Details: Vancouver, BC: Canadian Labour Market and Skills Researcher Network, 2015. 59p. Source: Internet Resource: Canadian Labour Market and Skills Researcher Network Working Paper No. 135 Accessed July 5, 2018 at: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/workingpapers/CLSRN%20Working%20Paper%20no.%20135%20-%20Zhang.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Canada URL: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/workingpapers/CLSRN%20Working%20Paper%20no.%20135%20-%20Zhang.pdf Shelf Number: 150772 Keywords: Crime RatesImmigrants Immigrants and Crime |
Author: Jung, Seyun Maria Title: The Relationship between Immigration and Crime in Canada: 1976-2011 Summary: This dissertation examines whether changes in immigration are associated with changes in crime rates at the macro-level over time in Canada. Specifically, I analyze this relationship in Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and provinces for the period 1976-2011. In general, the research on the relationship between immigration and crime has shown that they are either negatively associated or not related at all. However, most of this work has been conducted in the United States using cross-sectional designs and has focused on one type of crime, namely homicide. Differences between Canada and the United States in the extent and nature of both immigration and crime warrant a study of their relationship and its generalizability beyond the US. My dissertation adds to the literature by using a longitudinal design - which treats immigration as a process that unfolds over time - and extending the analysis beyond homicide to include violent, property, and crime rates. My findings show that, controlling for demographic and socioeconomic covariates, changes in immigration are either not significantly associated or negatively associated with changes in crime rates. These results lend support to the generalizability of the findings from studies of US cities to Canadian cities, to larger units of aggregation (i.e., provinces), and across different types of crime. Details: Toronto: Centre for Criminology and Sociolegal Studies, University of Toronto, 2017. 189p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed July 5, 2018 at: https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/79009/3/Jung_Seyun_Maria_201706_PhD_thesis.pdf Year: 2017 Country: Canada URL: https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/79009/3/Jung_Seyun_Maria_201706_PhD_thesis.pdf Shelf Number: 150774 Keywords: Crime RatesImmigrants Immigrants and Crime Immigration and Crime |
Author: Heeks, Matthew Title: The economic and social costs of crime Summary: The economic and social costs of crime estimates are important in helping to develop an understanding of the wider costs and benefits associated with changes in the number of crimes. Although methods have been developed to try to capture an assessment of the societal harms of different crime types, for example the Crime Harm Index, these do not set out to estimate the monetary costs of different offences. This report uses existing crime and cost data to update previous analysis by the Home Office to estimate the economic and social costs of different offences. It does not estimate the economic and social costs of every type of crime; it concentrates on more serious victim-based offences which are likely to have the largest economic and social costs. Costs have been estimated for crimes against individuals and, for a limited number of sectors, businesses. Those crimes which are not committed against an individual victim - so-called crimes against society - are excluded from the analysis; for example, possession of drugs. The report considers three main cost areas: - Costs in anticipation of crime, for example the cost of burglar alarms. - Costs as a consequence of crime, for example the cost of property stolen or damaged. - Costs in response to crime, for example costs to the police and criminal justice system. The total costs of crime in England and Wales in the 2015/16 are estimated to be approximately L50bn for crimes against individuals and L9bn for crimes against businesses. Violent crimes make up the largest proportion of the total costs of individual crime - almost three quarters - but only one third of the number of crimes. This is mainly due to the higher physical and emotional costs to the victims of violent offences. These costs are particularly high for crimes that are more likely to result in emotional injuries, such as rape and violence with injury. The offence with the highest estimated unit cost2 is homicide (L3.2m). Rape (L39,360) has the highest estimated unit cost of non-fatal offences. Thefts from businesses make up almost 90% of business crime but account for approximately half of the total estimated costs of crime against businesses (L4.2bn), as each crime has a low impact on society. In contrast, robberies and burglaries against businesses - estimated to cost L2bn and L1.6bn respectively - make up over 40% of the costs of crime, but account for only 5% of all crimes against businesses. Details: London: Home Office, 2018. 81p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Report 99: Accessed August 1, 2018 at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/727958/the-economic-and-social-costs-of-crime-horr99.pdf Year: 2018 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/727958/the-economic-and-social-costs-of-crime-horr99.pdf Shelf Number: 150989 Keywords: Costs of CrimeCrime RatesCrime StatisticsPovertySocioeconomic Conditions and CrimeViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Scandinavian Research Council for Criminology Title: When the Unforeseen in Seen: NSFK Workshop in Reykjavik, Iceland, December 3-5 2009 and January 3-5 2011 Summary: The report is a collection of papers presented in NSfK's workshops "When the unforeseen is seen", in Reykjavik, Iceland, December 3-5 2009 and January 3-5 2011. On its annual board meeting in March of 2009 in Reykjavik, the Scandinavian Research Council for Criminology (SRCC) decided to organize a workshop on topics related to crisis and society. What prompted this move by SRCC was the then recent banking collapse in Iceland, followed by a social turmoil and world-wide media attention. Reykjavik was felt to be an ideal location to host the workshop since many observers had pointed to Iceland as the first victim of the crisis in W-Europe, and the nation being worst hit. The title of the workshop When the Unforeseen is Seen captures the theme of the workshop. Did these turbulent events come as a surprise or could they somehow be foreseen? The content should not only address current events, but also take a look at historic events and social turning points during earlier time periods. Moreover, the scope should be broad, not only including Nordic nations, but also other European nations, if possible. Crime and justice related topics were understandably supposed to be central, but if participants wanted to explore other aspects related to crisis and society, they were free to do so. The workshop was held at the University of Iceland in December 3-5, 2009. A total of nine participants from all of the Nordic nations participated and gave a total of ten presentations, including a summary remark. On this meeting it was decided to meet again to elaborate further on the papers presented, if funds from SRCC allowed. After being granted a positive response from SRCC the second workshop was held in Reykjavik in January 3-5, 2011. A total of eight participants attended and gave nine presentations, including two new participants, but three from the first meeting were not present. Details: Reykjavik: The Research Council, 2011. 75p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 2, 2018 at: http://www.nsfk.org/Portals/0/Archive/1_When%20the%20unforeseen%20is%20seen.pdf Year: 2011 Country: Iceland URL: http://www.nsfk.org/Portals/0/Archive/1_When%20the%20unforeseen%20is%20seen.pdf Shelf Number: 151158 Keywords: Crime RatesCriminal JusticeEconomics and CrimeHomicide |
Author: Ajimotokin, Sandra Title: The Effects of Unemployment on Crime Rates in the U.S. Summary: This paper aims to analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime rate. Using data from 2013 acquired from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (used for violent crime rate data) and from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (used for unemployment data), the effect of unemployment rate on violent crime is estimated. In addition to unemployment rate, GDP per capita, high school graduation rates, police officers per 100,000 inhabitants, as well as poverty rates also are accounted for. Two equations are present, one which estimates the variables impacts on violent crime, and another for their impacts on property crime. In both the simple and multiple regression models for estimated the enumerated variables' impacts on crime rate, the results were that there were positive effects of these variables on the crime rate. From this, it can be concluded that there is a positive correlation between both violent and property crime, not only with unemployment rate, but also with GDP per capita, high school graduation rates, police officers per 100,000 inhabitants, and poverty rate. Details: Unpublished paper, 2015. 18p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 13, 2018 at: https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53294/theeffectsofunemploymentoncimerates.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53294/theeffectsofunemploymentoncimerates.pdf Shelf Number: 151123 Keywords: Crime RatesEconomics of Crime Unemployment and Crime |
Author: Bento, Fabiana Title: Murders in the city of Sao Paulo: analysis of reported incidents from January 2012 to June 2013 Summary: his study presents an analysis of incidents of murder reported in the city of Sao Paulo from January 2012 to June 2013. Our objective in completing this report is to organize and share the information available concerning murder when it is first reported to the Civil Police (i.e. the Incident Reports), with the hope of amplifying understanding about the phenomenon at large. Under what circumstances do these deaths occur? What are the profiles of the victims and the perpetrators? In which locations are these incidents most common? These are some of the questions that we sought to answer and that can contribute to the creation of policies better poised to confront homicide in the city. If today the city of Sao Paulo demonstrates murder rates that are indisputably better than they were fifteen or twenty years ago (which does not diminish in anyway the relevance of the problem currently), this is a consequence of investment in intelligence that mapped areas with higher concentrations of crime, created profiles of victims and perpetrators, and identified motives and weapons. The information that was discovered allowed for the implementation of preventative measures and investigations that directly impacted awareness about and reduction of crime. This intelligent and strategic perspective of seeking to comprehend the dynamics behind killings should be well-publicized and incorporated as a common practice; however, the last official study released to the general public - the Anuario do Departamento de Homicidios e Protecao a Pessoa - was published in 2008. It is still a common problem in Brazil that when homicides take center stage, generally due to an increase in statistics, the debate is overrun by explanations based on stereotypes- oftentimes attempting to link fatalities to the drug trade without pursuing a deeper understanding of the situation and entering into dialogue with the reality of the facts. Thus the importance of this research, which proposes to update the analysis of murders in the city with an eye towards verifying which of the characteristics previously discovered - such as the high rate of victimization of young male adults, the involvement of firearms, and the relationship between homicides and interpersonal conflicts - have remained constant. Despite its limitations, considering that we are working with the first information received by the police, the analysis creates a panorama of murders in the city using constructive data that can suggest a certain path forward. We understand that this is a first step, and our hope is that it does not become merely a rote exercise, but that it can stimulate further research that continues to build greater knowledge of the dynamics associated with homicide in Sao Paulo. Details: Sao Paulo: Instituto Sou da Paz, 2013. 40p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 13, 2018 at: http://www.soudapaz.org/upload/file/conhecimento_homicidios_sp_ingl_s.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Brazil URL: http://www.soudapaz.org/upload/file/conhecimento_homicidios_sp_ingl_s.pdf Shelf Number: 153412 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsHomicidesMurdersViolent Crime |
Author: Briddell, Laine O'Neill Title: Rurality and Crime: Identifying and Explaining Rural/Urban Differences Summary: Rural crime is relatively understudied in criminology. Though most research finds that urban places have the highest crime rates and rural areas the lowest, little attention has been given to specifying this relationship. This neglect is particularly conspicuous in research on communities and crime. Although this approach, with its attention to community characteristics, would be particularly useful for understanding differences in crime rates of rural and urban places, research in this field has been limited almost exclusively to urban areas. This dissertation offers an initial step towards remedying this lack of attention to rural crime by using national data to examine differences in rural and urban crime rates. I identify variation in crime rates across a full range of rural and urban counties in order to clarify which aspects of rurality are most strongly associated with lower crime rates. I also explore theoretical explanations for the differences in crime rates, focusing on social disorganization theory. If levels of social disorganization differ in rural and urban places, this may account for the differences in their crime rates. In addition, social disorganization theory is often put forth as a general theory, yet has been tested primarily in urban areas. The myriad differences between rural and urban places may contribute to differences in the effects of disorganization on crime rates. To test this, I combine county-level data from several sources, including the Uniform Crime Reports, U.S. Census, County Business Patterns survey, and Religious Congregations and Membership Study. I find that controlling for structural antecedents of disorganization and measures of community social organization reduces differences between rural and urban crime rates; more urban counties generally suffer from higher levels of disorganization which partially explains their higher crime rates. I also find that the effects of measures of social disorganization differ in rural and urban places; in general, they are better predictors of urban crime. This is particularly evident for poverty, which is positively associated with crime rates in urban counties, but in rural areas, is negatively associated with property crime and is not associated with violent crime. Overall, these results support the extension of social disorganization theory to rural counties, but suggest the need to adapt the theory to better predict crime across all locations. Details: State College: Pennsylvania State University, 2009. 115p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed November 26, 2018 at: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/3811 Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/3811 Shelf Number: 153841 Keywords: Crime ratesRural Areas and Crime Rural Crime |
Author: Schnabel, Eva Marieke Title: Essays on the Economics of Crime (Sweden) Summary: This thesis considers public policy effects on crime in Sweden using extensive administrative register data on all convictions in Sweden between 1973-2010. First, it explores the impacts of the Swedish compulsory schooling reform that took place between 1949-1962 on individual crime of the generation directly targeted by the education reform. Then it considers the intergenerational effect of this education policy on crime. Policies are often evaluated on either short term outcomes or just in terms of their effect on individuals directly targeted. If such policies shift outcomes across generations their benefits may be much larger than originally thought. This study provides novel evidence on the intergenerational impact of policy by showing that educational reform in Sweden reduced crime rates of the targeted generation and their sons by comparable amounts. The second policy evaluated in this thesis is a liberalization of the opening hours of the Swedish alcohol monopoly outlet stores that took place between 2000- 2001. This study distinguishes itself from existing studies by mapping out an age-specific policy impact on crime for all ages and for a broad set of types of crimes. Whether and how alcohol policies shift criminal outcomes differently for different ages and type of crimes is not well established. The liberalized opening hours of outlet stores had very heterogeneous effects on crime by age and type of crimes. It reduced overall crime rates for male teenagers by 15-20 percent, mainly driven by reductions in drugs and property offences. Men in their mid-thirties also experience a substantial reduction of overall crime rates by 9 percent that comes from reductions in other crimes category and traffic crimes. While a strong increase of 10 percent in the crime rate for men in their early to mid-twenties can be mainly attributed towards a large increase in drug offences. Details: London: University College London, 2014. 111p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed January 28, 2019 at: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1431114/1/PhD_thesis_EM%20Schnabel.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Sweden URL: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1431114/1/PhD_thesis_EM%20Schnabel.pdf Shelf Number: 154458 Keywords: Age-Crime Curve Crime RatesEconomics of Crime Education Reform Intergenerational Transmission Public Policy |
Author: Morgan, Anthony Title: Does CCTV help police solve crime? Summary: This study examines the impact of CCTV footage on clearance rates for crimes occurring on the rail network in New South Wales. Nearest neighbour matching was used to compare criminal matters with and without camera footage. Cases were matched on principal offence type, spatial and temporal characteristics and offence severity. Overall, 24.8 percent of matters where footage was requested were solved by police, compared with 21.0 percent of matters where footage was not requestedan 18 percent increase in clearance rates. Footage was provided to police for nine out of 10 requests and was associated with an estimated 20 percent increase in clearance rates. Results varied by offence type, with larger increases observed for theft and property damage than for assault, and for offences at night. Timely access to CCTV footage for criminal investigations is associated with increased clearance rates for crimes on the rail network. Details: Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2019. 15p. Source: Internet Resource: Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice No. 576: Accessed April 13, 2019 at: https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi576 Year: 2019 Country: Australia URL: https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi576 Shelf Number: 155396 Keywords: CCTV Closed-Circuit Television Crime RatesCriminal Investigation Police Investigation Police Surveillance |
Author: New York City Department of Investigation Title: An Analysis of Quality-of-Life Summonses, Quality-of-Life Misdemeanor Arrests, and Felony Crime in New York City, 2010-2015 Summary: Between 2010 and 2015, the New York City Police Department (NYPD) issued 1,839,414 "quality-of-life" summonses for offenses such as public urination, disorderly conduct, drinking alcohol in public, and possession of small amounts of marijuana. There are a number of legitimate reasons to issue such summonses, most notably to address community concerns and police the offenses in question. Further, maintaining order is a goal in and of itself. Addressing disorder is a basic government function, and writing summonses may be a necessary tool toward that end. However, NYPD has claimed for two decades that quality-of-life enforcement is also a key tool in the reduction of felony crime, most recently in the 2015 report, Broken Windows and Quality-of-Life Policing in New York City. Whether there is systemic data to support the effectiveness of quality-of-life summonses and misdemeanor arrests for this particular purpose is a question of considerable importance. New York City is a safer city today than it was in years past. In the period reviewed, 2010 through 2015, felony rates continued to decline and remain at historic lows. What factors contributed to this safer city is a worthy inquiry because identifying what works will help the Department become more strategic and more efficient. It is equally important to identify which factors are not supported by evidence. Issuing summonses and making misdemeanor arrests are not cost free. The cost is paid in police time, in an increase in the number of people brought into the criminal justice system and, at times, in a fraying of the relationship between the police and the communities they serve. So that future discussion of this issue can take place in the clear light of objective data, the Department of Investigation's Office of the Inspector General for the NYPD (OIG-NYPD) undertook to examine what, if any, data-driven evidence links quality-of-life enforcement - defined narrowly for purposes of this Report as quality-of-life criminal summonses and quality-of-life misdemeanor arrests - to a reduction in felony crime. This Report looks solely at the question of whether quality-of-life enforcement has any measurable relationship to felony crime. This Report does not speak to the use of quality-of-life enforcement to maintain order, nor does it speak to any type of quality-of-life enforcement other than quality-of-life summons and misdemeanor arrest activity. While it is not possible to know conclusively whether quality-of-life summonses and misdemeanor arrests impact violent crime, OIG-NYPD, after a months-long analysis of six years of summons, arrest, and complaint data over time, can now state: OIG-NYPD's analysis has found no empirical evidence demonstrating a clear and direct link between an increase in summons and misdemeanor arrest activity and a related drop in felony crime. Between 2010 and 2015, quality-of-life enforcement rates - and in particular, quality-of-life summons rates - have dramatically declined, but there has been no commensurate increase in felony crime. While the stagnant or declining felony crime rates observed in this six-year time frame may be attributable to NYPD's other disorder reduction strategies or other factors, OIG-NYPD finds no evidence to suggest that crime control can be directly attributed to quality-of-life summonses and misdemeanor arrests. This finding should not be over-generalized to preclude the use of summonses and misdemeanor arrests for the purpose of targeted crime and disorder reduction, but given the costs of summons and misdemeanor arrest activity, the lack of a demonstrable direct link suggests that NYPD needs to carefully evaluate how quality-of-life summonses and misdemeanor arrests fit into its overall strategy for disorder reduction and crime control. Details: New York: Author, 2016. 85p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 8, 2019 at: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/oignypd/downloads/pdf/Quality-of-Life-Report-2010-2015.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/oignypd/downloads/pdf/Quality-of-Life-Report-2010-2015.pdf Shelf Number: 155699 Keywords: Antisocial Disorder Arrests Broken Windows Theory Crime RatesCrime Statistics Criminal Summonses Felonies Misdemeanors Quality-of-Life Crimes |
Author: Maghularia, Rita Title: Do Immigrants Affect Crime? Evidence from Panel Data for Germany Summary: The paper analyses the empirical relationship between immigrants and crime using panel data for 391 German administrative districts between 2003 and 2016. Employing different standard panel estimation methods, we show that there is no positive association between the immigrant rate and the crime rate. We assess the robustness of this result by considering the heterogeneity of immigrant groups with respect to gender, age, country of origin and - if applicable - refugee status, and study naturalized immigrants. We also take into account possible spillover effects of immigrants on criminal activities by Germans, omitted variables and spatial correlation. Furthermore, taking advantage of the panel-structure of the data set we employ an instrumental variable approach that deals with the possibly endogenous allocation of immigrants and allows for causal interpretation of the estimates. There is no evidence that immigrants increase crime. Details: Munich: CESifo Group Munich, 2019. 31p. Source: Internet Resource: CESifo Working Paper Series 7696: Accessed July 16, 2019 at: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7696.pdf Year: 2019 Country: Germany URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7696.pdf Shelf Number: 156897 Keywords: Crime RatesImmigrants and Crime Refugees and Crime |