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Date: November 22, 2024 Fri
Time: 11:51 am
Time: 11:51 am
Results for crime trends
54 results foundAuthor: Liberman, Akiva Title: The Volatility of Monthly Crime Summary: In recent years, the overall trends in crime in the District have been down. Yet, news accounts often report surges in crime. Monthly burglary, robbery, and homicide are volatile and can go up even during a long-term downward trend. Does an increase in crime in a given month—compared with last month or last year—suggest that crime is on the increase? The key to reconciling short-term changes in crime with longer-term trends is to understand the volatility of crime. In this brief, we explore this issue by examining monthly changes in crime during the past decade against the background of longer trends. Details: Washington, DC: District of Columbia Crime Policy Institute, Urban Institute, 2011. 3p. Source: Internet Resource: Brief No. 10: Accessed March 28, 2011 at: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/Volatility-Brief-3-10-11_1.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/Volatility-Brief-3-10-11_1.pdf Shelf Number: 121126 Keywords: Crime Rates (Washington, D.C.)Crime Trends |
Author: Orr, Benjamin Title: Demographic Trends in the District of Columbia, 2000-2009 Summary: This brief examines the demographics of the District of Columbia and how they have changed over the period 2000-2009. The demography of a city describes the context in which crime occurs, as well as the population of possible offenders and victims. The demographics of the District of Columbia have undergone significant change over the past decade, and understanding demographic trends can help put changes in crime into context. Because there are many reasons why crime rates change, we do not attempt to link these demographic changes to changes in crime (which are described in a series of other DCPI Briefs). Details: Washington, DC: District of Columbia Crime Policy Institute, Urban Institute, 2011. 4p. Source: Internet Resource: Brief No. 9: Accessed March 28, 2011 at: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/demographics-2-18-2010_1.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.dccrimepolicy.org/Briefs/images/demographics-2-18-2010_1.pdf Shelf Number: 121127 Keywords: Crime TrendsDemographic Trends (Washington, D.C.)Population |
Author: Burke, Cynthia Title: Thirty Years of Crime in the San Diego Region: 1981 through 2010 Summary: This report details crimes for all 18 cities and the unincorporated area of the county. It serves as a tool for local law enforcement agencies in gauging the success of enforcement strategies and crime prevention programs. There were 3.61 violent crimes per 1,000 residents in the county during 2009, a 10 percent decrease from the year before and a 30-year low. (Violent crimes include homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.) Homicides in the region saw a solid decrease for the fifth year running, dropping from 75 in 2009 to 67 in 2010. (The number of homicides peaked at 278 in 1991.) With the seventh consecutive annual decrease, the property crime rate also hit its lowest point in the past 30 years, at 21.04 incidents per 1,000 residents despite speculation that it might increase with the downturn in economic conditions. Property crimes hit a 30-year high in 1988, with 67.26 incidents per 1,000 residents. (Property crimes include burglary, larceny theft, and motor vehicle theft.) Other interesting facts in this year’s report include: •The number of burglaries and larcenies were at 30-year lows. •Motor vehicle thefts decreased by 10 percent from 2009 to 2010, the greatest one-year decrease for property-related crime. •There were 133 hate crime events reported to local law enforcement in 2010, compared to 108 in 2009 – an increase of 23 percent. •The City of San Diego compared favorably to other large cities in the United States in 2009 (the most recent statistics available). Of the 32 cities (rather than counties or regions) with populations of 500,000, San Diego had the third lowest violent crime rate and the second lowest property crime rate. Details: San Diego, CA: San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), 2011. 37p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 10, 2011 at: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_1572_12834.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_1572_12834.pdf Shelf Number: 121694 Keywords: Crime Rates (San Diego)Crime StatisticsCrime Trends |
Author: Shentov, Ognian Title: Crime Trends in Bulgaria: 2000 - 2010 Summary: The present study examines crime trends in Bulgaria between 2000 and 2010 based on a comparison between surveys of crime victims (National Crime Survey) and police statistics. In addition to overall crime trends data, the report presents data on ten different categories of crime, as well as regional specifics of crime in Bulgaria. Criminal justice and socio economic data is also analysed in an attempt to explain the observed trends in crime. Details: Sofia: Center for the Study of Democracy, 2011. 63p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 26, 2011 at: www.csd.bg/fileSrc.php?id=20543 Year: 2011 Country: Bulgaria URL: Shelf Number: 122449 Keywords: Crime Statistics (Bulgaria)Crime TrendsCrime Victims |
Author: Ringland, Clare Title: Is the Assault Rate in NSW Higher Now Than It Was During the 1990s? Summary: The rate of police-recorded assault more than doubled in NSW between 1990 and 2007. This bulletin investigates whether the increase was due to a genuine increase in violence or an increase in the amount and/or type of violent behaviour coming to police attention. Trends and patterns in police-recorded assault from 1995 to 2007 are supplemented with crime victim survey data, hospitalisations data and a selection of narratives for assault incidents. Over the period, rates of assault increased for both males and females and for all age groups. Increases occurred in both aggravated and common assault, assault with a weapon and without, in all statistical divisions and premise types. These trends in police-recorded assault, supported by increases in hospitalisation and victim survey data, suggest a real increase in violence. However, less serious police-recorded assaults (e.g. common assault and assault without a weapon) have increased at a greater rate than more serious assaults, and more recent assault narratives included a greater proportion of assaults with less serious actions. In addition, the increase in hospitalisations for assault was small in comparison to increases in police-recorded assault and crime survey victimisation rates. Thus, it is likely that the increase in assault was due not only to an increase in violence, but also to an increase in public awareness of assault and the increased willingness of victims and third parties to report, and/or police willingness to record, incidents as assault. Published by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Details: Sydney: New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2009. 12p. Source: Internet Resource: Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice, no. 127; Accessed November 2, 2011 at: http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/cjb127.pdf/$file/cjb127.pdf Year: 2009 Country: Australia URL: http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/cjb127.pdf/$file/cjb127.pdf Shelf Number: 123215 Keywords: Assaults (Australia)Crime RatesCrime TrendsPolice ReportingVictimizationViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Title: Monitoring the impact of economic crisis on crime Summary: Within the context of the United Nations Global Pulse initiative on monitoring the impact of crisis on vulnerable populations, this report presents the results of a unique cross-national analysis that aims to investigate the possible effects of economic stress on crime. Using police-recorded crime data for the crimes of intentional homicide, robbery and motor vehicle theft, from fifteen country or city contexts across the world, the analysis examines in particular the period of global financial crisis in 2008/2009. As economic crisis may occur over a relatively short timescale, this period, as well as – in many cases – up to 20 years previously, are examined using high frequency (monthly) crime and economic data. The report finds that, whether in times of economic crisis or non-crisis, economic factors play an important role in the evolution of crime trends. Out of a total of fifteen countries examined, statistical modelling identifies an economic predictor for at least one crime type in twelve countries (80 percent), suggesting some overall association between economic changes and crime. In eleven of the fifteen countries examined, economic indicators showed significant changes suggestive of a period of economic crisis in 2008/2009. Both visual inspection of data series and statistical modelling suggest that in eight of these eleven ‘crisis’ countries, changes in economic factors were associated with changes in crime, leading to identifiable crime ‘peaks’ during the time of crisis. Violent property crime types such as robbery appeared most affected during times of crisis, with up to two-fold increases in some contexts during a period of economic stress. However, in some contexts, increases in homicide and motor vehicle theft were also observed. These findings are consistent with criminal motivation theory, which suggests that economic stress may increase the incentive for individuals to engage in illicit behaviours. In no case where it was difficult to discern a peak in crime was any decrease in crime observed. As such, the available data do not support a criminal opportunity theory that decreased levels of production and consumption may reduce some crime types, such as property crime, through the generation of fewer potential crime targets. For each country/city a number of individual crimes and economic variables were analyzed. Across all combinations, a significant association between an economic factor and a crime type was identified in around 47 percent of individual combinations. For each country, different combinations of crime and economic predictors proved to be significant. Among the two methods used to analyze the links between economic and crime factors (visualization and statistical modelling), different combinations of factors were found to be significant and in five cases the two methods identified the same variables. Three out of these five cases represented city contexts rather than national contexts. This may indicate that associations between crime and economic factors are best examined at the level of the smallest possible geographic unit. Where an association between one or more economic variables and crime outcomes were identified by statistical modelling, the model frequently indicated a lag time between changes in the economic variable and resultant impact on crime levels. The average lag time in the contexts examined was around four and half months. In this respect, it should be noted that the relationship between crime and economy is not necessarily uni-directional. Whilst there are theoretical arguments for why changes in economic conditions may affect crime, it could also be the case that crime itself impacts upon economic and developmental outcomes, such as when very high violent crime levels dissuade investment. During the statistical modelling process, crime was set as the ‘outcome’ variable and economic data as the ‘independent’ variable. As such, the model was not used to investigate the converse relationship – whether changes in crime could also help explain economic outcomes. The statistical model proved successful at forecasting possible changes in crime for a number of crime typecountry/ city contexts. Forecasting for a period of three months using a statistical model with economic predictors proved possible with reasonable accuracy (both in terms of direction and magnitude) in a number of different contexts, including both in times of crisis and non-crisis. Many of the forecasts are sufficiently accurate to be of value in a practical scenario. Crime forecasts sometimes led, however, to underestimation of crime changes, suggesting that modelling of crime changes is not optimal when based on economic predictors alone. Indeed, economic changes are not the only factor that may impact levels of crime. The presence of youth gangs, weapons availability, the availability and level of protection of potential targets, drug and alcohol consumption and the effectiveness of law enforcement activity all play a significant role in enabling or restraining overall crime levels. Although the challenges remain significant, this report demonstrates that – with comparatively few resources – a lot may be learned from the application of analytical techniques to existing data. Continued methodological development, including the creation of an online data reporting ‘portal’, as well as the strengthening of exchange of information and experience, between countries, has the potential to lay the foundation of a strong ‘early-warning’ system. The analysis reported here does not prove the existence of relationships between economic factors and crime. It does provide strong indications that certain associations are present, and that much may be gained from further investigation. If the impact of economic stress on crime trends can be further understood, and even forecasted in the short-term, then there is the potential to gain much through policy development and crime prevention action. Details: Vienna, Austria: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 14, 2012 at http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/GIVAS_Final_Report.pdf Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/crime/GIVAS_Final_Report.pdf Shelf Number: 124137 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime TrendsEconomics and CrimeHomicideMotor Vehicle TheftRobbery |
Author: Ungerer, Carl Title: Beyond bin Laden: Future trends in terrorism Summary: This Strategy report examines the shifting patterns of global terrorism. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the geographic, operational and ideological trends that are driving the current wave of jihadist terrorism around the world. In the wake of Osama bin Laden’s death, those trends point to the increasing diversification of the threat, as a new generation of terrorist leaders in South Asia, North Africa and the Arabian peninsula adapt and reinterpret al-Qaeda’s ideology. The report argues that with or without al-Qaeda as a coherent organisation at the forefront of the global Islamist movement, religiously-motivated terrorism is set to continue for many decades to come. Despite the obvious splintering and factionalisation within al-Qaeda and between al-Qaeda and its various franchises and affiliates around the world, there is little evidence that ‘al-Qaedaism’ as a motivating ideology is going to dissolve any time soon. Although many contemporary jihadist groups, especially in Southeast Asia, reject al-Qaeda’s methods, and most appear disconnected from the current Egyptian- and Saudi-dominated al-Qaeda leadership, the local and global manifestations of Islamist terrorism are in fact converging. For Australia, these trends will require a more agile and effective counter-terrorism response. In particular, counter-terrorism and counter-radicalisation strategies will need to focus more closely on those areas at home that are most at risk from the spread of ‘al-Qaedaism’—individuals, institutions and the internet. Details: Barton, Australia: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), 2011. 52p. Source: ASPI Strategy: Internet Resource: Accessed March 10, 2012 at Year: 2011 Country: Australia URL: Shelf Number: 124424 Keywords: al QaedaCounterterrorism (Australia)Crime TrendsJihadismTerrorismTransnational Crime |
Author: Campbell, Michael Title: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Crime Summary: In recent decades, crime rates have increased dramatically in many Western countries and crime has become a major issue of public policy, especially in the United States. A very large literature has developed on the general causes of, and the impact of public policy on, crime. Yet no consensus has emerged on quite basic issues such as, for example, the effect of incentives, both positive and negative, on crime. Leading conservative criminologists such as Wilson (1975) argue the case for the effectiveness of the policies of deterrence, and even though his original position has softened somewhat (Wilson 1994), the conclusions which he draws from the evidence are still quite different from those of liberals such as Currie (1985, for example). Economic analysis of the phenomenon of crime was stimulated in the late 1960s by the paper by Becker (1968). In this framework, agents in the market for crime - for example, criminals and the law enforcement agencies - are assumed to act in accordance with the rules of optimising behaviour. They are able to both gather and process substantial amounts of information efficiently in order to form expectations on the likely costs and benefits associated with different courses of action, and to respond to incentives and disincentives in an appropriately rational manner. This is in marked contrast to the tenets of conventional criminology (for example, Nuttall 1994 and Gottfredson and Hirshi 1995), in which the typical criminal is portrayed as having difficulty identifying and assessing alternative courses of action, rarely thinking through the consequences of actions, and not thinking about possible punishments. But even amongst research carried out within the common framework of economic theory few clear conclusions emerge. Ehrlich (1996), in an excellent exposition of the approach to crime based upon such theory notes that the empirical literature is 'voluminous'. However, he states that on the crucial question of the impact of positive and negative incentives on crime, 'it would be premature to view the empirical evidence as conclusive'. Ehrlich notes that the quantitative estimates of such effects vary, even to the extent of a minority of studies failing to find any effect at all, and part of his paper is devoted to a discussion of the potential reasons for this, not least of which is the intrinsic limitations of crime statistics. Indeed, an awareness of the often seriously unreliable nature of the statistics is one thing on which most economists and criminologists find common ground. In this paper, we offer a different methodological approach to the process by which crime rates spread (or contract) over time. Our aim is not to account for the path over time followed by any particular set of crime rates, whatever the degree of reliability which might be attached to any available data. In principle, the model could be calibrated to a particular data series, but our purpose is to give a general description of how crime rates change over time. Details: Unpublished Paper, Undated. 26p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 10, 2012 at http://www.paulormerod.com/pdf/CRIME42.pdf Year: 0 Country: United States URL: http://www.paulormerod.com/pdf/CRIME42.pdf Shelf Number: 124433 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends |
Author: Great Britain. National Audit Office Title: Comparing International Criminal Justice Systems Summary: This briefing was prepared for the House of Commons Justice Committee to provide an international dimension to its inquiry into the budget and structure of the Ministry of Justice in England and Wales. The briefing compares crime and criminal justice data from a number of different countries and sets out some of the challenges of making such comparisons. It also identifies a number of areas where it may be beneficial for the Ministry or others to do additional comparative work. Details: London: National Audit Office, 2012. 56p. Source: Briefing for the House of Commons Justice Committee: Internet Resource: Accessed March 13, 2012 at http://www.nao.org.uk//idoc.ashx?docId=558e0abc-7429-47cb-a1d9-51affadc6556&version=-1 Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://www.nao.org.uk//idoc.ashx?docId=558e0abc-7429-47cb-a1d9-51affadc6556&version=-1 Shelf Number: 124473 Keywords: Administration of JusticeCrime TrendsCriminal Justice SystemsReoffending |
Author: Serojitdinov, Anvar Title: IOM 2011 Case Data on Human Trafficking: Global Figures & Trends Summary: IOM 2011 Case Data contains information on all trafficking cases assisted by the organisation in 2011. The tables contained within this document are based upon IOM case data where the organisation has been involved in providing direct assistance to a trafficked person in the context of an IOM countertrafficking project. Data is collected directly from trafficked persons and stored into the IOM human trafficking database. This covers approximately 20,000 cases encoded by 72 different missions. In Europe IOM has globally provided assistance to individual trafficked persons on 1606 occasions. 1315 of these persons were adults aged 18 and over, whereas 198 were minors and 93 unknown. 1010 of these individuals were female, 502 were males, and in 34 cases the sex of the individual was unknown. Details: Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2012. 32p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 24, 2012 at http://ec.europa.eu/anti-trafficking/download.action;jsessionid=1JBhPXCH6Yx2d7x12NtYT6Xkcyz6JlHTNhHTnzgPJnLhqJTjLWWx!-1664183480?nodeId=0c594432-d910-421a-864f-45f546ae3abb&fileName=IOM+Global+Trafficking+Data+on+Assisted+Cases+2012.pdf&fileType=pdf Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://ec.europa.eu/anti-trafficking/download.action;jsessionid=1JBhPXCH6Yx2d7x12NtYT6Xkcyz6JlHTNhHTnzgPJnLhqJTjLWWx!-1664183480?nodeId=0c594432-d910-421a-864f-45f546ae3abb&fileName=IOM+Global+Trafficking+Data+on+Assisted+Cas Shelf Number: 125061 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsHuman Trafficking |
Author: McClure, Lesley Title: Research into Recent Crime Trends in Northern Ireland May 2007 Summary: This report examines whether the increase in recorded crime in 2005/06 is an accurate reflection of greater criminal activity and experiences of crime within Northern Ireland or evidence of increased reporting of crime within communities traditionally perceived to be non-supportive of the police and whether this can be attributed directly to increased confidence in policing within these communities. Details: Belfast: Northern Ireland Policing Board, 2007. 97p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 1, 2012 at: http://www.nipolicingboard.org.uk/recent_crime_trends_research_by_ipsos_mori_may_2007-2.pdf Year: 2007 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.nipolicingboard.org.uk/recent_crime_trends_research_by_ipsos_mori_may_2007-2.pdf Shelf Number: 125110 Keywords: Crime Statistics (Northern Ireland)Crime TrendsPolice-Community Relations |
Author: Rytina, Nancy Title: Apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol: 2005 - 2008 Summary: Statistics on apprehensions represent one of the few indicators available regarding illegal entry or presence in the United States. This Office of Immigration Statistics Fact Sheet provides information on recent trends in U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions and the gender, age, country of origin, and geographic location of persons apprehended during 2005 through 2008. Databeginning in 2005 were obtained from the Enforcement Case Tracking System (ENFORCE) of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). For prior years, data were obtained from the Performance Analysis System (PAS) of DHS. Details: Washington, DC: Office of Immigration Statistics, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2009. 2p. Source: Fact Sheet: Internet Resource: Accessed May 8, 2012 at http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_apprehensions_fs_2005-2008.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_apprehensions_fs_2005-2008.pdf Shelf Number: 125208 Keywords: ArrestsBorder PatrolCrime TrendsDemographic TrendsIllegal AliensIllegal ImmigrationImmigrants |
Author: Violence Policy Center Title: Drive-By America, Second Edition Summary: Drive-by shootings are commonly defined as an incident in which the shooter fires a firearm from a motor vehicle at another person, vehicle, building, or another stationary object. This study is a follow-up to the July 2007 Violence Policy Center (VPC) report Drive-By America, which, using a limited sample of information, offered for the first time a nationwide overview of drive-by shootings. Three years after the publication of the original VPC study, there remains no national data on the prevalence of drive-by shootings, those who commit them, those who are killed and injured as a result of them, the firearms used, where they take place, or at what times they most often occur. The goal of this new edition of Drive-By America is to continue the VPC’s efforts to fill the information gap surrounding drive-by shootings while illustrating the need for improved data collection regarding this specific category of firearms violence. From July 1, 2008, through December 31, 2008, the Violence Policy Center used the Google news search engine to collect every reported news article that contained the term “drive by.” From these results, the VPC removed all results not related to a drive-by shooting incident (for example, extraneous results included news reports of football games detailing a “drive by” one team against another, etc.). Recognizing the limitations of the survey tools used, and taking into account prior studies looking at the number of drive-by shootings in specific jurisdictions, it is likely that the number of shootings is dramatically underreported. The number of reported instances may also be influenced by local media focus. During the six-month period covered in this report, 733 drive-by shooting incidents were reported in the news media as identified by Google, claiming 154 lives and injuring 631 individuals. Details: Washington, DC: Violence Policy Center, 2010. 18p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 8, 2012 at http://www.vpc.org/studies/driveby2010.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.vpc.org/studies/driveby2010.pdf Shelf Number: 125215 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsDrive-By Shootings (U.S.)GangsGun ViolenceGun-Related Violence |
Author: Tilley, Nick Title: An overview of attrition patterns Summary: This analysis was undertaken as background to a study that tracked investigation and attrition processes in detail across 3,000 volume crime cases randomly selected from eight high-crime family BCUs, and should be read alongside the report of that study (Burrows et al., 2005). The primary purpose of this paper is to outline the patterns of detection for four volume crime types across England and Wales – domestic burglary; non-domestic burglary; theft of motor vehicles (TOMV) and theft from motor vehicles (TFMV). These four crime types were the focus of the sister study and will be described as ‘volume crimes’ in this report. The analysis that follows is principally undertaken by force and by Basic Command Unit (BCU) family. The paper also identifies some of the factors that seem to explain variations in attrition patterns, in particular in the proportions of offences with sanction detections excluding offences ‘taken into consideration’ (TICs). Broad trends and patterns in detection rates are summarised annually in the publication Crime in England and Wales. This has generally shown a downward trend in detection rates since 1980. As Simmons and Dodd (2003) put it, “in simple terms, the number of detections achieved has failed to keep pace with the rise in recorded crime…or when crime numbers have fallen, the number of detections has fallen more”. The overall detection rate stood at 23.5 per cent in 2002/3, which was very slightly higher than the rate for the previous year (23.4%). The 2002/03 figure was however unadjusted for the effect of the National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS), which is thought to have depressed the detection rate. In 2004/05, the overall detection rate stood at 26 per cent (Nicholas et al., 2005). Crime in England and Wales summarises the overall variation in detection rates between forces, but does not provide a detailed comparison because it recognises that the ‘crime mix’ differences between forces limit the value of overall detection rates as a good comparative measure of police performance (this factor was identified as the primary influence on variations in overall detection rates by Burrows and Tarling, 1982). On this basis it recommends that comparisons are better directed at detections for particular offence groups, which is the focus of the current exercise. Details: London: Home Office, 2005. 26p. Source: Home Office Online Report 45/05: Internet Resource: Accessed May 13, 2012 at http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/rdsolr4505.pdf Year: 2005 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/rdsolr4505.pdf Shelf Number: 125251 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends |
Author: Wing, Janeena Title: Domestic Violence in Idaho - A Compilation of Court Filings and Police Reported Incidents: 2005-2010 Summary: Intimate partner violence includes incidents where the offender and victim are related through marriage/common-law, as an ex -spouse, boy/girlfriend, or as same sex partners. In 2010, there were 5,901 victims of reported intimate partner violence in Idaho. Domestic violence, on the other hand, (as defined by Idaho statute) includes incidents where the offender and victim are married, formerly married, or have a child in common. Crimes reported to the Idaho Incident Based Reporting System (IIBRS) do not indicate whether the victim and offender reside within the same household or have a child in common. In addition, IIBRS does not indicate the actual Idaho statute violation that occurred, but rather provides crime types that have been standardized for crime comparison across the nation. To understand the trend of domestic violence in Idaho, this report provides information from both court case filings and police reports (IIBRS data) from 2005 through 2010. Court filings were obtained for all cases of domestic violence assault and battery, attempted strangulation, stalking, domestic violence protection order and no contact order violations between 2005 and 2010. The actual victim/ offender relationship was unknown, but these specific charges were focused on as they are more commonly associated with intimate partners. The outcomes of cases filed related to domestic relationships helps understand how criminal cases are handled by the judicial system. Although IIBRS does not track Idaho code violations, it contains the victim/offender relationship, which was used to determine all crimes occurring between intimate partners and family members between 2005 and 2010. Intimate partner and family member victims are compared against all victims within this report, to understand the characteristics and trends of family violence in Idaho. Details: Boise, ID: Idaho Statistical Analysis Center, 2011. 43p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 4, 2012 at http://www.isp.idaho.gov/pgr/Research/documents/IntimatePartnerViolence.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.isp.idaho.gov/pgr/Research/documents/IntimatePartnerViolence.pdf Shelf Number: 125324 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime TrendsDomestic Violence (Idaho)Family Violence (Idaho)Intimate Partner Violence (Idaho) |
Author: Gilgen, Elizabeth Title: Armed Violence: Spotlight on Lethal Effects Summary: Armed violence—‘the intentional use of illegitimate force (actual or threatened) with arms or explosives, against a person, group, community, or state’ (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2008, p. 2)—has many harmful consequences, death being the most extreme. The reason why the number of violent deaths is frequently used as a proxy for armed violence is that killings are likely to be recorded more systematically than other crimes. Indeed, ‘[k]illing is treated seriously in all societies, which renders it more readily amenable to examination and measurement’ (Geneva Declaration Secretariat, 2011, p. 43). This Research Note is largely based on Chapter 2 of the Global Burden of Armed Violence 2011 (GBAV 2011) report, which presents the GBAV 2011 database (Gilgen, 2011). Established by the Small Arms Survey, the database provides an overview of the number of violent deaths that took place across all settings from 2004 to 2009, revealing that 9 out of 10 violent deaths occur in non-conflict settings. The chapter sheds light on the 58 countries most affected by armed violence between 2004 and 2009 and focuses on trends in countries that exhibit the highest rates of violent deaths per capita. Details: Geneva: Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, 2012. 4p. Source: Research Notes Number 17: Internet Resource: Accessed June 7, 2012 at http://mafiaandco.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/armed-violence-spotlight-on-lethal-effects.pdf Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://mafiaandco.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/armed-violence-spotlight-on-lethal-effects.pdf Shelf Number: 125328 Keywords: Armed ViolenceCrime TrendsViolence |
Author: International Drug Policy Consortium Title: IDPC Response to the UNODC World Drug Report 2012 Summary: 26 June 2012 saw the launch of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)’s flagship publication, the World Drug Report. This IDPC response provides an overview of the data and topics presented in the Report and where appropriate, within the broader context of the current state of the UN drug control framework, offer a critical analysis of both. This year’s publication represents an impressive and wide-ranging set of data collated and analysed by UNODC and provides an overview of recent trends and the current situation in terms of production, trafficking, consumption and the consequences of illicit drug use for treatment, drug-related diseases and drug-related deaths. Details: London: International Drug Policy Consortium, 2012. 22p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 15, 2012 at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/64663568/library/IDPC-response-to-the-UNODC-world-drug-report-2012.pdf Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/64663568/library/IDPC-response-to-the-UNODC-world-drug-report-2012.pdf Shelf Number: 126930 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsDrug TraffickingDrug Use and AbuseDrugs and Crime |
Author: Violence Policy Center Title: Black Homicide Victimization in the United States: An Analysis of 2009 Homicide Data Summary: America faces a continuing epidemic of homicide among young black males. The devastation homicide inflicts on black teens and adults is a national crisis, yet it is all too often ignored outside of affected communities. This study examines the problem of black homicide victimization at the state level by analyzing unpublished Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) data for black homicide victimization submitted to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The information used for this report is for the year 2009 and is the most recent data available. This is the first analysis of the 2009 data on black homicide victims to offer breakdowns of cases in the 10 states with the highest black homicide victimization rates and the first to rank the states by the rate of black homicides. It is important to note that the SHR data used in this report comes from law enforcement reporting at the local level. While there are coding guidelines followed by the law enforcement agencies, the amount of information submitted to the SHR system, and the interpretation that results in the information submitted (for example, gang involvement) will vary from agency to agency. While this study utilizes the best and most recent data available, it is limited by the quantity and degree of detail in the information submitted. Details: Washington, DC: Violence Policy Center, 2012. 20p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 15, 2012 at http://www.vpc.org/studies/blackhomicide12.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://www.vpc.org/studies/blackhomicide12.pdf Shelf Number: 126932 Keywords: African AmericansCrime StatisticsCrime TrendsHomicideVictimization |
Author: Baumer, Eric P. Title: Expanding the Scope of Research on Recent Crime Trends Summary: While there is a burgeoning research literature on crime trends, much of the extant research has adopted a relatively narrow approach, efforts across studies are highly variable, and the overall conclusions that can be drawn are ambiguous. In our judgment, one reason for this state of affairs is that the current data infrastructure that supports crime trends research is incomplete and scattered, yielding redundant efforts and highly inconsistent approaches. The primary purpose of this project was to enhance the data infrastructure by compiling in a centralized location the most commonly referenced datasets and measures. An ancillary objective was to illustrate the utility of the resulting data archive. We do so by considering three substantive research issues: (1) a uniform set of analyses across states, counties, and cities; (2) an assessment of the conditional effects of economic conditions on recent crime trends; and (3) an expanded analysis of the effects of key criminal justice attributes (e.g., the nature of policing, age- and crime-specific imprisonment rates) on recent crime trends that have not been considered extensively in prior research. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, 2012. 84p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed December 13, 2012 at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/240204.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/240204.pdf Shelf Number: 127208 Keywords: Crime TrendsResearch Methods |
Author: California. Office of the Attorney General Title: The State of Human Trafficking in California 2012 Summary: On September 22, 2012, our nation celebrated the 150th anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation. While slavery has been outlawed in this country since 1865, the promise of freedom still eludes thousands of men, women, and children who are forced into labor and prostitution in the United States today. Forced labor and sex trafficking are not just brutal relics of history or crimes that take place in faraway places. They comprise the world’s fastest growing criminal enterprise, and they are flourishing right here in California. Human trafficking is an estimated $32 billion-a-year global industry. After drug trafficking, human trafficking is the world’s second most profitable criminal enterprise, a status it shares with illegal arms trafficking. Like drug and arms trafficking, the United States is one of the top destination countries for trafficking in persons. California – a populous border state with a significant immigrant population and the world’s ninth largest economy – is one of the nation’s top four destination states for trafficking human beings. As part of the state’s first anti-trafficking law (AB 22, Lieber), the California Alliance to Combat Trafficking and Slavery Task Force reviewed California’s response to human trafficking and offered findings and recommendations in a 2007 report to the Governor, Attorney General, and Legislature. California has made tremendous progress in combating human trafficking since the Task Force released the Human Trafficking in California report, but significant new challenges in combating this crime have emerged in the last five years. First, criminal organizations and street gangs have increasingly turned to trafficking in persons. The prevailing wisdom among these criminals is that human trafficking is more profitable and has a lower risk of being detected than drug trafficking. Second, new innovations in technology make it possible for traffickers to recruit victims and perpetrate their crimes online. It is critical that law enforcement have the tools and training to police online trafficking. Third, the Internet, social media, and mobile devices provide new avenues for outreach to victims and raising public awareness about this atrocious crime. In January 2012, Attorney General Kamala D. Harris created a Human Trafficking Work Group to examine the nature and scope of human trafficking in California in 2012; to evaluate California’s progress since 2007 in combating human trafficking; and to identify challenges and opportunities in protecting and assisting victims and bringing traffickers to justice. The Work Group included more than 100 representatives of state, local and federal law enforcement, state government agencies, victim service providers, nonprofit groups, technology companies, and educational institutions. This report reflects the Work Group discussions held during three day-long meetings in Sacramento, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, as well as supplemental research and investigation by the California Department of Justice. Details: Sacramento, CA: Office of the Attorney General, 2012. 134p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed December 16, 2012 at https://oag.ca.gov/sites/all/files/pdfs/ht/human-trafficking-2012.pdf? Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://oag.ca.gov/sites/all/files/pdfs/ht/human-trafficking-2012.pdf? Shelf Number: 127213 Keywords: Border SecurityCrime TrendsHuman Trafficking (California)Labor Trafficking (California)Sex Trafficking (California)Transnational Crime |
Author: Hartmann, Andreas-Rentaus Title: New Trends in the Expansion of Western Balkan Organized Crime Summary: The note demonstrates the growing importance of the "South East hub" for the trafficking of illicit commodities to and from the European Union, analyses the factors which led to the rise in international stature of Western Balkan organized crime and predicts that the massive presence of irregular immigrants in the southern part of the European Union combined with the sinking into recession of this region will almost certainly provide another opportunity for the Western Balkan organized crime groups and their global expansion. Details: Brussels: European Parliament, Policy Department C - Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs, 2012. 8p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed December 20, 2012 at http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/libe/studiesdownload.html?languageDocument=EN&file=75711 Year: 2012 Country: Europe URL: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/libe/studiesdownload.html?languageDocument=EN&file=75711 Shelf Number: 127244 Keywords: Crime TrendsIllicit Trade (Balkan Peninsula)Organized Crime (Balkan Peninsula) |
Author: Moffatt, Steve Title: An update of long-term trends in property and violent crime in New South Wales: 1990-2012 Summary: Aim: The aim of this paper is to analyse the trends in the rates of annual recorded incidents of ten major categories of property and violent crime for the period 1990 to 2012 in New South Wales (NSW). Method: Offence rates were calculated using criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for the period 1995 to 2012, and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research’s recorded crime statistics report series for the period 1990 to 1994. Kendall’s trend test was run on the 23 annual rates for each of the ten major offence categories. Results: Some categories of crime in NSW are now at the lowest recorded levels they have been for over 20 years. Comparing per capita rates of crime in 2012 with per capita rates in 1990, lower rates were found for: murder (51% lower), motor vehicle theft (73% lower), break and enter non-dwelling (65% lower), break and enter dwelling (45% lower), robbery with a weapon not a firearm (29% lower), robbery with a firearm (71% lower), and robbery without a weapon (26% lower). Three of the ten offence types analysed in this report were found to have recorded rates higher in 2012 than in 1990: assault (74% higher), sexual assault (130% higher) and ‘other’ sexual offences (77% higher). It is not clear whether the increases in these offences are the result of higher rates of offending or greater willingness to report them. Conclusion: In the period since 1990, assault and sexual assault rates recorded significant long term upward trends whilst the other eight offences analysed in this report were trending down or stable. The 2012 recorded sexual assault rate was marginally above the previous highs of 2009 and 2010 and the rate since 2000 has recorded a significant uptrend. Apart from sexual assault, the remaining nine offence types have recorded significant downtrends in recorded rates since 2000. The three robbery and three property crime rates have all recorded falls of more than 55% since 2000. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2013. 6p. Source: Internet Resource: Issue Paper No. 84: Accessed May 1, 2013 at: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/BB84.pdf/$file/BB84.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Australia URL: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/BB84.pdf/$file/BB84.pdf Shelf Number: 128509 Keywords: Crime Statistics (Australia)Crime TrendsProperty CrimesViolent Crime |
Author: Maffei, Stefano, ed. Title: New European Crimes and Trust-Based Policy Summary: In the last decade, two large-scale research projects that focused on trust in justice were funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme. EURO-JUSTIS, which was co-ordinated by Mike Hough and ran from 2008 to 2011, aimed to develop social indicators on trust in justice in order to enable evidence-based public assessment of criminal justice across Europe. The purpose of the FIDUCIA project, which began in 2012 and will conclude in 2015, is to shed light on a number of distinctively "new European" criminal behaviours which have emerged in the last decade as a consequence of technology developments and the increased mobility of populations across Europe, and propose new approaches to the regulation of such behaviours. For years, the question which has dominated and defined criminology is, 'Why do people break the law?' Procedural justice theory in general, and the two projects in particular, invert this question to discover reasons for compliance with the law. This focuses attention on a different set of explanations. When we ask why we ourselves observe the criminal law most of the time, we immediately look to answers that are couched in terms of normative compliance. When people ask why others break the law, explanations tend to be in terms of instrumental factors, such as insufficient deterrence or insufficient responsiveness to deterrence. The central idea behind the FIDUCIA project is that public trust in justice is important for social regulation: this is why the Consortium proposes a "trust-based" policy model in respect of emerging forms of criminality. Its aim is to determine whether new ways of regulating the sorts of crimes that are becoming more common as we move towards a more integrated Europe, with improved communication, large movements of citizens and non-citizens between member states can be discovered. What does the FIDUCIA research team mean by "trust-based policy"? This is a fundamental idea, however it requires further explanation. Most people think that police and criminal justice systems control crime through systems of deterrent threat. They suppose that people obey the law because they want to avoid the costs of conviction and punishment in the courts. This is partly true, yet it is only part of the story. Most people obey the law most of the time because they think it is the right thing to do. The police and the courts play an important role in maintaining this "normative commitment to the law", and they do it best when they command legitimate authority. People are more likely to obey the law and to cooperate with police and justice officials when they regard them as legitimate. This publication contains the findings of the FIDUCIA project's first-year of research, namely a review of: the state of knowledge on crime trends (Deliverables 1-3), the effectiveness of current criminal policies (Deliverables 4-6) and the fear of crime, trust in justice and punitive attitudes of citizens across Europe (Deliverables 7-9). Details: Athens, Greece: FIDUCIA, 2013. 230p. Source: Internet Resource: Volume #1: Accessed January 31, 2014 at: http://www.fiduciaproject.eu/media/publications/11/FiduciaVol1_Nov18.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Europe URL: http://www.fiduciaproject.eu/media/publications/11/FiduciaVol1_Nov18.pdf Shelf Number: 131820 Keywords: Crime TrendsCriminal Justice PolicyFear of CrimePolice Legitimacy |
Author: Papachristos, Andrew Title: 48 Years of Crime in Chicago: A Descriptive Analysis of Serious Crime Trends from 1965 to 2013 Summary: Over the past two decades, the United States has experienced an unpredicted drop in crime. Chicago, while often portrayed as a violent city, has seen sustained drops in violent crime and homicide rates during this time, but particularly recently. Using annual crime data, this report briefly describes temporal and spatial trends of major index crime in Chicago from 1965 to 2013. Overall, Chicago - like other U.S. cities - experienced a significant decline in overall crime and violent crime. Present day levels of violent crime are, in fact, at their lowest rates in four decades. Furthermore, nearly all communities experienced declines in crime, although the rates of decline were greater in some communities than others. Over the past three years, for example, all but five communities (out of 77) experienced declines in violent crime. Those areas that experienced increases were and continue to be some of Chicago's safest areas. While the drop in violent crime is shared between low and high crime areas alike, there remain areas of the city where violent crime rates are unacceptably high. Rates of homicide have also decreased over this period following the overall city-wide pattern, with some unique patterns emerging surrounding the contexts of gang homicide. The objective of this report is to simply document these historical trends and not to assign any casual interpretations of the vanguards of crime rates of this period. Directions for future investigation are also discussed. Details: New Haven, CT: Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, 2013. 20p. Source: Internet Resource: ISPS Working Paper, ISPS 13-023: Accessed March 13, 2014 at: http://isps.yale.edu/sites/default/files/publication/2013/12/48yearsofcrime_final_ispsworkingpaper023.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://isps.yale.edu/sites/default/files/publication/2013/12/48yearsofcrime_final_ispsworkingpaper023.pdf Shelf Number: 131901 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime TrendsUrban Areas and CrimeViolent Crime |
Author: Shively, Michael Title: Understanding Trends in Hate Crimes Against Immigrants and Hispanic-Americans Summary: Over the past decade, substantial public attention has been directed toward the possibility that anti-immigrant rhetoric and legislation might be associated with an increase in hate crime in the United States against immigrants and those of Hispanic origin. Recent speculation about whether levels of hate crime are rising or falling, and what may be causing any observed trend, frequently arise in response to new incidents. Moreover, the speculation about hate crime trends applies across a wide range of groups that are known to be targeted for crimes motivated by hate or bias. Answers to questions about trends and why they occur have important implications for policy and practice. For example, if rising levels of hate crime are occurring in a region and targeting certain populations, resources can be deployed where they are most needed, and at appropriate levels. If specific populations are being targeted, culturally competent victim services and law enforcement responses can be tailored to serve those populations. To effectively respond to rising levels of hate crimes and to determine what may be causing the trend, it must first be established that the trend exists. While conceptually simple, it is technically challenging to distinguish random or insignificant variations that occur in any time-series from substantial, statistically significant changes over time. Establishing the significance of trends requires time-series data with: Measures and data collection methods used consistently over time; Reliable measurement of the variables of interest (e.g., ethnicity, race, sexual orientation of victim or respondent); Numbers of incidents sufficient to provide statistical power; and Coverage of geographic areas of interest. Prior to the 1990s, the ability to measure trends in hate crime was limited to a few municipalities where data were collected. Since the passage of the Hate Crime Statistics Act in 1990, substantial public investments have been made to develop data streams, including annual victimization surveys and collections of reported crimes and arrests. While much can be learned about hate crime from information gathered through Federal data collection programs, these time-series collections have not been examined to assess whether the data can support the study of a number of issues, including the detection of significant trends in hate crimes against specific groups. Fundamental questions remain to be answered, including whether the data contained in the major Federal hate crime data collection systems (primarily, the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), and National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) or other data streams (such as the School Crime Supplement (SCS) of the NCVS, and the School Survey on Crime and Safety (SSOCS) are adequate to: Estimate hate crime trends nationally, or within any state, across all hate crime types; Assess whether trends exist in hate crimes against immigrants and those whose ethnicity is classified as Hispanic; Serve as a foundation for research on the causes and consequences of hate crime; and Support evaluations of interventions meant to prevent or effectively respond to the problem. To answer such questions, the study featured: An examination of each of the major national time-series datasets (e.g., UCR, NIBRS, NCVS); Seeking additional data sources that could be used to corroborate or supplement the national data collections; Analysis of each database, examining whether trends can be modeled and tested to determine statistical significance; and Gathering qualitative input from expert researchers and practitioners regarding study findings and recommendations. Details: Cambridge, MA: Abt Associates, 2013. 175p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 17, 2014 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/244755.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/244755.pdf Shelf Number: 131953 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsHate CrimesHispanicsImmigrantsMinoritiesVictimization Surveys |
Author: Gulliver, Pauline Title: Family Violence Indicators Summary: Good quality, reliable outcome indicators can be used to monitor trends, identify emerging problems, create awareness, guide legislative and policy reforms, and ensure adequate provision of services. This report assesses whether the administrative data sources collected by the Ministries of Health, Justice, Social Development (CYF) and the Police are suitable for providing outcome indicators to measure trends in the frequency of family violence events in the community. The report recommends a provisional set of indicators as measures of trends in family violence as recorded by government agencies and also proposes a theoretical definition of family violence as a starting point for discussion. It also recommends ways to improve the quality of the data currently collected. Details: Wellington, NZ: Families Commission, 2013. 100p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Report 3/13: Accessed April 22, 2014 at: http://www.familiescommission.org.nz/sites/default/files/downloads/family-violence-indicators-2013_1.pdf Year: 2013 Country: New Zealand URL: http://www.familiescommission.org.nz/sites/default/files/downloads/family-violence-indicators-2013_1.pdf Shelf Number: 132108 Keywords: Child Abuse and Neglect Crime Statistics Crime TrendsDomestic Violence Family Violence Intimate Partner Violence Violence Against Women |
Author: Goh, Derek Title: An update of long-term trends in property and violent crime in New South Wales: 1990-2013 Summary: Aim: The aim of this paper is to analyse the trends in the rates of annual recorded incidents of 10 categories of property and violent crime for the period 1990 to 2013 in New South Wales (NSW). Method: Offence rates were calculated using criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for the period 1995 to 2013, and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research's recorded crime statistics report series for the period 1990 to 1994. Kendall's trend test was run on the 24 annual rates for each of the 10 offence categories. Results: Some categories of crime in NSW are now at the lowest recorded levels they have been for over 20 years. Comparing per capita rates of crime in 2013 with per capita rates in 1990, lower rates were found for: motor vehicle theft (77% lower), robbery with a firearm (73% lower), break and enter non-dwelling (68% lower), break and enter dwelling (52% lower), murder (43% lower), robbery without a weapon (35% lower), and robbery with a weapon not a firearm (29% lower). Three of the ten offence types analysed in this report were found to have recorded rates higher in 2013 than in 1990: sexual assault (125% higher), other sexual offences (95% higher) and assault (74% higher). Conclusion: In the period since 1990, assault and sexual assault rates recorded significant long term upward trends whilst the other eight offences analysed in this report were trending down or stable. The 2013 recorded sexual assault rate was marginally below the highest in that series (occurring in 2012) and the rate since 2000 has recorded a significant uptrend. Apart from sexual assault and 'other' sexual offences, the remaining eight offence types recorded significant downtrends in recorded rates since 2000. The three robbery and three property crime series all recorded falls of more than 60 percent since 2000. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2014. 6p. Source: Internet Resource: Issue paper No. 93: Accessed May 14, 2014 at: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/agdbasev7wr/_assets/bocsar/m716854l4/bb93.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Australia URL: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/agdbasev7wr/_assets/bocsar/m716854l4/bb93.pdf Shelf Number: 132348 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsProperty Crimes (Australia)Violent Crime |
Author: Morgan, Nick Title: The heroin epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s and its effect on crime trends - then and now. Research Report 79 Summary: - A variety of factors have been cited to explain the rise and fall in crime that has occurred in many nations since 1980. But as yet, no definitive explanation has been produced. In the UK context, a rise and fall in illicit drug use has not been especially prominent in this debate, perhaps due to a lack of robust data for the whole period. - This paper gathers available evidence and conducts new analysis to try to assess the effect that heroin and crack-cocaine use may have had on acquisitive crime (i.e. theft-type offences) in England and Wales since 1980. It also suggests implications for future crime trends. - Numerous sources of evidence agree that the number of heroin users increased markedly through the 1980s and early 1990s and that many also used crack as their drug-using career developed. This 'epidemic' spread from area to area but the national peak probably occurred between 1993 and 2000. Crime peaked between 1993 and 1995. - Current data, particularly from treatment providers, show that heroin/crack use has declined for at least a decade and that - as with offending - the decline has been most marked amongst younger people. This means those who began using these drugs during the epidemic still dominate the heroin/crack-using population today. - Studies agree that, in aggregate, heroin/crack users commit a large number of offences; large enough, this paper shows, to be an important driver of overall crime trends. - Studies disagree about whether it is illicit drug use that causes the criminality. This is because a sizable proportion of heroin/crack users do not resort to theft. And many were offending before taking these drugs. However, evidence suggests that, for at least some users, heroin/crack was the catalyst for offending, and for others it probably accelerated and extended their criminal career. Thus aggregate-level change in numbers of heroin/crack users is likely to affect crime trends. - An examination of the considerable regional and international variation in crime trends, particularly geographical areas where the crime drop was not marked or the peak occurred at a different time, also points to a possible causal relationship, rather than simple correlation. - Within England and Wales, the starkest example of regional variation was Merseyside, which had a recorded acquisitive crime peak five years before other police force areas. Evidence also suggests that Merseyside was one of the first areas to be hit by the heroin epidemic and the first to mount a concerted treatment response. Acquisitive (and total) recorded crime in Scotland peaked in 1991, which studies suggest is in line with the national peak in heroin/crack use. But in Edinburgh and its surrounding region (Lothian and Borders) recorded acquisitive crime peaked seven years earlier, in 1984. Data show that Lothian and Borders had a severe heroin epidemic at this time, which was not prolonged into the 1990s as in other parts of Scotland. - Like Merseyside and Edinburgh, the Republic of Ireland suffered a short, sharp heroin epidemic in the early 1980s and crime surged at this time. Northern Ireland did not have a heroin epidemic and its crime trend was much flatter over the period. - In the US all types of crime fell from 1991 but the US crime survey shows that property crime peaked over a decade earlier, in line with the US heroin epidemic. Likewise, many east European nations had a heroin epidemic about a decade after those in western Europe. Eastern Europe also had a recorded acquisitive crime peak around a decade after western Europe. - Two approaches were used in this paper to estimate the effect of heroin/crack use on crime. Both suggest that the epidemic may have had a significant impact on acquisitive crime in England and Wales. - The first approach was a police force area-level comparison of the Addicts Index and police recorded crime data from 1981 to 1996, through the crime turning point. This showed that different types of theft generally peaked together within an area. But the timing and size of these peaks varied across areas and was highly correlated with heroin use. Fixed effects regression analysis suggested that about 40 per cent of the national rise in the highest volume crime types (burglary and vehicle crime), from 1981 to the peak, can be attributed to rises in the number of heroin users. - The second approach was to model the number of heroin/crack users over time and their offending. Exploratory model results found that heroin/crack use could account for at least one-half of the rise in acquisitive crime in England and Wales to 1995 and between one-quarter and one-third of the fall to 2012, as the epidemic cohort aged, received treatment, quit illicit drug use or died. - Model results also suggested that the epidemic still affects acquisitive crime today. In the recent recession, crime in England and Wales continued to fall, which correlates with a slowly shrinking heroin/crack user population but not with economic factors. Projecting forwards, a further downward pressure on crime, of a lessening degree, might be expected as the heroin/crack cohort continues to age and get treatment. - The evidence presented shows that detecting and preventing future drug epidemics is paramount, and this requires local as well as national monitoring. Evidence also suggests that, for volume-crime reduction, it is crucial to maintain a focus on heroin/crack, despite the higher prevalence of other illicit drugs like cannabis, powder cocaine and ecstasy, and the emergence of new psychoactive substances. Specifically, it remains important to identify the minority of heroin/crack users who commit large volumes of crime during addiction periods. If that can be done, and those periods of addiction and offending can be shortened or prevented, the potential for further reductions in crime remains significant. However, many of these individuals will have been using heroin/crack intermittently for a decade or more and will have tried most current forms of treatment, so innovative approaches may be needed. Details: London: Home Office, 2014. 78 p.; Technical Report, 222p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Report 79: Accessed July 22, 2014 at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/332952/horr79.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/332952/horr79.pdf Shelf Number: 132733 Keywords: CocaineCrime RatesCrime TrendsDrug Abuse and AddictionDrug Abuse and CrimeHeroin (U.K.) |
Author: Weatherburn, Don Title: Young but not so restless: Trends in the age-specific rate of offending Summary: Aim: To describe and discuss trends in age-specific rates of offending for property crime, robbery and serious assault. Method: Descriptive statistics and graphical displays. Results: The number of people apprehended by police for property crime and robbery has fallen sharply since around 2001 and is much lower now than it was 15 years ago. The decline has been most pronounced among adolescent and young adult offenders (aged 15-20 years). The rate at which people in this age group were apprehended for robbery first rose and fell between 1995 and 2004 and then rose and fell (again) between 2005 and 2012. The rate at which 21-24 year olds were apprehended for robbery declined between 1999 and 2012. A similar but less pronounced pattern is seen for 25-29 year olds. The rate at which people were apprehended for serious assault remained fairly stable for all age groups up until around 2003. Thereafter the rate rose rapidly for 15-20 year olds, peaking at around 2008 and then falling from 2009 to 2012. The rate at which older age groups have been apprehended by police for assault remained fairly steady since 1999 but over the last three years has slowly declined. Conclusion: It is impossible to be certain but there is good reason to expect a continuation of the downward trend in rates of property crime and robbery in NSW. The future course of trends in serious assault will likely depend on whether the current fall in alcohol misuse by young people continues. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2014. 8p. Source: Internet Resource: Issue Paper No. 98: Accessed December 9, 2014 at: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/agdbasev7wr/_assets/bocsar/m716854l4/bb98.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Australia URL: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/agdbasev7wr/_assets/bocsar/m716854l4/bb98.pdf Shelf Number: 134292 Keywords: AssaultsCrime TrendsMotor Vehicle TheftProperty Crimes (Australia)RobberyViolent Crime |
Author: Gomez, Catalina Title: Crime in Colombia: More Law Enforcement or More Justice? Summary: This study considers the effect that judicial and police efficiency exercised on crime in 25 of the 33 political-administrative divisions in Colombia during the period 2000-2011. Specifically, the study seeks to determine whether the reduction of crime was the result of increases in the cost of crime as a result of the strengthening of the country's security forces, especially the National Police, or instead was due to the greater efficiency of the penal system resulting from a structural change stemming from Act 906 of 2004. To view this we propose a model of dynamic panel data that not only includes the individual and temporal effects of the variables of interest, but also allows us to understand the inertia in criminal behavior. The results indicate an inverse relationship between the number of crimes and the greater efficiency of the police and judicial action, which is consistent with the evidence reported in other international work. Robustness checks confirmed the validity of the findings. Details: Medellin, Colombia: Department of Economics, Universidad EAFIT, 2014. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: Center for Research in Economics and Finance (CIEF), Working Paper No. 14-12 : Accessed April 20, 2015 at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2456717 Year: 2014 Country: Colombia URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2456717 Shelf Number: 135320 Keywords: Crime TrendsPolice Effectiveness (Colombia) |
Author: Scheider, Matthew C. Title: The Relationship between Economic Conditions, Policing, and Crime Trends Summary: Many agencies have recently experienced budget constrictions resulting in significant reductions in staffing levels. In every corner of the United States agencies are being forced to lay off sworn and civilian staff members. Many believe that at some point it is likely that these troubling trends will begin to impact public safety - if they haven't already. While a logical presumption, it is difficult to reliably demonstrate a causal relationship between the economy and crime, the number of police and crime, or the effects of police budgets on crime. This report intends to provide insight into the complexities that exist. By understanding how and why many common measures are inadequate, officials will be better prepared when faced with difficult questions regarding resource allocation, crime prevention strategies, and the development of sustainable plans to facilitate the highest levels of public safety. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, 2012. 23p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 5, 2015 at: http://ric-zai-inc.com/Publications/cops-p248-pub.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://ric-zai-inc.com/Publications/cops-p248-pub.pdf Shelf Number: 136682 Keywords: Crime TrendsPolice OfficersPublic SafetySocioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: Shaw, Oliver Title: Crime and the value of stolen goods Summary: - This paper uses the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) to investigate the value of stolen goods and its relationship to crime trends. The analysis aims to determine: - the types of stolen goods and their value, and how these have changed over time; - whether these changes have played a role in the crime drop since the mid-1990s; - the extent to which the value of goods affects what types of crimes are committed and which items stolen within these crime types; - whether there is a link between the value of stolen goods and the rate at which crime is reported to the police, i.e. are demands on the police and the wider criminal justice system affected by changes to the value of stolen goods? - The total value of all stolen goods, as reported by victims, was estimated to be $1.8bn in 2013/14. This has fallen from $6.9bn in 1995, a 74 per cent drop. There are two components to this. The number of thefts with loss has fallen by about 60 per cent. But this report shows that the average value of stolen goods from a single theft has also fallen, by about 35 per cent. In other words, the overall economic harm to victims from theft has probably declined by an even greater amount than the number of thefts. - Although there are a number of crime types not fully covered by the CSEW, notably fraud, analysis here suggests that changes in the levels of plastic card fraud have not substantially offset the reduction in overall economic harm to victims. - Theft of vehicles has been the biggest contributor to the fall in value of stolen goods between 1995 and 2013/14. This is due to both the large reduction in numbers of thefts (theft of vehicles is down by 88% since 1995) and a small fall in the mean value of the vehicles stolen. - The distribution of criminal gains from theft is heavily skewed. In 2013/14, just 2 per cent of all thefts accounted for 46 per cent of the total value of goods stolen. This means that the mean value of goods stolen per theft is markedly higher than the median value, and that the latter better represents the typical criminal gain from any one incident of theft (bold highlighted in Table 5). - There has been a high degree of stability in the types of items that are stolen. Cash is most frequently stolen with vehicle parts/accessories, the second most stolen item for every year in which the CSEW has run from 1981 to 2013/14. Of the items stolen that would feasibly be resold by a thief, just nine types of goods - vehicle parts/accessories, cars/vans, bicycles, stereo/hi-fi equipment, clothes, jewellery, tools, garden furniture and mobile phones - account for the top six most stolen items in every year. Value is clearly a factor in determining which goods are most stolen, but it is not the only factor. Details: London: Home Office, 2015. 56p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Report 81: Accessed October 15, 2015 at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/468003/horr81.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/468003/horr81.pdf Shelf Number: 136989 Keywords: Crime TrendsEconomics of CrimeStolen GoodsStolen PropertyTheft |
Author: Granath, Sven Title: Lethal violence in Sweden 1990-2014: A description of trends with a specific focus on firearm violence Summary: Lethal violence is a central type of offence in studies of crime trends in Sweden and in other countries. The rate of unreported cases, i.e. events which never come to the police's attention, is believed to be low for such offences and there is relatively consistent data over time. This report analyses all cases of completed murder, manslaughter, and assault with a lethal outcome of which the police were aware from 1990-2014. The purpose is to describe lethal violence in Sweden, both with a focus on the general trends and with a specific focus on lethal violence with firearms. The latter type of lethal violence has been given a great deal of attention during recent years, not the least in connection with reports of shootings in major cities while, at the same time, there has not yet been a detailed analysis of lethal firearm violence. In addition to information from the criminal justice system regarding cases of lethal violence (police investigations, sentences, etc.), the report also uses data from the National Board of Health and Welfare's cause of death register and patient register. Details: Stockholm: Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Bra), 2015. 10p. Source: Internet Resource: English summary of Bra report 2015:24: Accessed March 14, 2016 at: https://www.bra.se/download/18.47fa372d1520dfb2fc51b888/1452503671860/2015_Lethal_violence_in_Sweden_1990_2014.pdf Year: 2015 Country: Sweden URL: https://www.bra.se/download/18.47fa372d1520dfb2fc51b888/1452503671860/2015_Lethal_violence_in_Sweden_1990_2014.pdf Shelf Number: 138213 Keywords: Alcohol Related CrimeCrime StatisticsCrime TrendsFirearmsGun-Related ViolenceHomicidesViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Maine Statistical Analysis Center Title: Maine Crime and Justice Data Book: 2014 Summary: The 2014 Maine Crime and Justice Data Book presents a portrait of crime and justice indicators in the state, using the most recent public safety, corrections, and court data available for Maine. The reports looks at ten year trends in Maine, compares Maine figures with data from other northern New England states and the United States, and presents some county level findings as well. Details: Portland, ME: Maine Statistical Analysis Center, University of Southern Maine, Muskie School of Public Service, 2014. 92p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 6, 2016 at: http://muskie.usm.maine.edu/justiceresearch/Publications/DataBook2014/2014_Maine_Crime_and_Justice_Databook.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://muskie.usm.maine.edu/justiceresearch/Publications/DataBook2014/2014_Maine_Crime_and_Justice_Databook.pdf Shelf Number: 138587 Keywords: Crime Rates Crime Statistics Crime trends |
Author: International Association for Healthcare Security and Safety Foundation (IAHSS) Title: 2016 Healthcare Crime Survey Summary: The 2016 Healthcare Crime Survey was commissioned under the IAHSS Foundation's Research and Grants Program. The purpose of the 2016 Healthcare Crime Survey is to provide healthcare professionals with an understanding of the frequency and nature of crimes that impact hospitals. Hospital security leaders in both the United States and Canada were invited to participate. Specifically, we asked that the highest ranking hospital security professional (or their designee) at each hospital to respond to the survey. The 2016 Healthcare Crime Survey collected information on ten (10) different types of crimes deemed relevant to hospitals: Murder Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault Assault (Simple) Disorderly Conduct Burglary Theft (Larceny-Theft) Motor Vehicle Theft Vandalism For the 2016 Healthcare Crime Survey, we received 366 responses from both U.S. (n = 326) and Canadian (n = 40) hospitals. Of those 366 responses, 302 were usable responses. This represents an increase in usable responses compared to the 2015 Healthcare Crime Survey. A response was considered usable if the respondent provided data for each of the crime questions and the hospital's bed count. Bed counts were necessary as the Healthcare Crime Survey has used bed count as a surrogate indicator of hospital size and more specifically to calculate crime rates for each of the ten crimes studied. Details: Glendale Heights, IL: IACHSS, 2016. 21p. Source: Internet Resource: IAHSS-F CS-16: Accessed June 13, 2016 at: http://ihssf.org/PDF/2016crimesurvey.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://ihssf.org/PDF/2016crimesurvey.pdf Shelf Number: 139401 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsHealthcare FacilitiesHospital SecurityHospitalsWorkplace Crime |
Author: New York City Department of Investigation Title: An Analysis of Quality-of-Life Summonses, Quality-of-Life Misdemeanors Arrests, and Felony Crime in New York City, 2010-2015 Summary: Between 2010 and 2015, the New York City Police Department (NYPD) issued 1,839,414 "quality - of- life" summonses for offenses such as public urination, disorderly conduct, drinking alcohol in public, and possession of small amounts of marijuana. There are a number of legitimate reasons to issue such summonses, most notably to address community concerns and police the offenses in question. Further, maintaining order is a goal in and of itself. Addressing disorder is a basic government function, and writing summonses may be a necessary tool toward that end. However, NYPD has claimed for two decades that quality-of-life enforcement is also a key tool in the reduction of felony crime, most recently in the 2015 report, Broken Windows and Quality- of-Life Policing in New York City. Whether there is systemic data to support the effectiveness of quality-of-life summonses and misdemeanor arrests for this particular purpose is a question of considerable importance. New York City is a safer city today than it was in years past. In the period reviewed, 2010 through 2015, felony rates continued to decline and remain at historic lows. What factors contributed to this safer city is a worthy inquiry because identifying what works will help the Department become more strategic and more efficient. It is equally important to identify which factors are not supported by evidence. Issuing summonses and making misdemeanor arrests are not cost free. The cost is paid in police time, in an increase in the number of people brought into the criminal justice system and, at times, in a fraying of the relationship between the police and the communities they serve. So that future discussion of this issue can take place in the clear light of objective data, the Department of Investigation's Office of the Inspector General for the NYPD (OIG-NYPD) undertook to examine what, if any, data-driven evidence links quality- of-life enforcement - defined narrowly for purposes of this Report as quality- of-life criminal summonses and quality- of-life misdemeanor arrests - to a reduction in felony crime. Details: New York: New York City Department of Investigation, Office of the Inspector General for the NYPD, 2016. 85p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 13, 2016 at: http://www1.nyc.gov/assets/oignypd/downloads/pdf/Quality-of-Life-Report-2010-2015.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://www1.nyc.gov/assets/oignypd/downloads/pdf/Quality-of-Life-Report-2010-2015.pdf Shelf Number: 139632 Keywords: ArrestsBroken Windows TheoryCrime StatisticsCrime TrendsFeloniesMisdemeanorsSummonses |
Author: Arizona Criminal Justice Commission, Statistical Analysis Center Title: Arizona Crime Trends: A System Review, 2004-2013 Summary: On a biennial basis, the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission is tasked with preparing for the governor a criminal justice system trends report. Available resources, the size and complexity of the criminal justice system and the availability of relevant data influence the scope of the issues addressed in the report. In support of data-driven decision making, this report uses publicly available data to describe the activity of Arizona's criminal justice system from law enforcement agencies description of the offenses reported to their agencies to the population of the Arizona Department of Corrections. More specifically, in this edition of Arizona Crime Trends: A System Review, up to 10 years of data from law enforcement, the courts, corrections, and the juvenile justice system are compiled to give readers a decade overview of crime and criminal and juvenile justice system activity from 2004 to 2013 in Arizona. An analysis of the data included in this report reveals the following: Crime In 2013, the number of violent index offenses reported to the police in Arizona was 19.5 percent lower than in 2004 and 20.9 percent lower than the decade high in 2005. Arizona remains higher than the national rate. Although the rate of violent index offenses reported to the police decreased over the decade, the rate of forcible rape in Arizona increased 24.0 percent. Arizona remains higher than the national rate. The rate of property index offenses reported to the police in Arizona was 36.4 percent lower in 2013 than in 2004 and 4.4 percent lower than the decade high in 2009. Arizona remains higher than the national rate. Arizona has had a reduction in the percentage of violent crimes committed with a firearm over the decade. Cumulative decreases for murder, robbery and aggravated assault declined 16.1 percent, 23.3 percent and 12.1 percent, respectively. Arizona has consistently had a lower percentage of murders committed with a firearm compared to the national percentage since 2009. Courts Statewide, the number of felony case filings decreased by 13.7 percent over the decade. From state fiscal year 2004 to 2013, the number of individuals on standard probation remained similar; however, the number of individuals on intensive probation decreased 24.4 percent. From 2004 to 2013, the courts collected $116 million in restitution from offenders on standard probation. In 2013, the amount of restitution collected from standard probationers was 6.0 percent higher than the amount of restitution collected in 2004. From 2004 to 2013, the number of community service hours completed by standard probationers decreased by 50.7 percent from 813,823 hours in 2004 to 401,613 hours in 2013. At the 2013 minimum wage in Arizona ($7.80/hour), standard probationers performed community service work worth approximately $3.1 million in 2013. The number of community service hours performed by intensive probationers declined by 47.9 percent over the decade from 615,182 hours in 2004 to 320,357 hours in 2013. At the 2013 minimum wage in Arizona ($7.80/hour), intensive probationers performed community service work worth approximately $2.5 million in 2013. Corrections From 2004 to 2013, the number of individuals incarcerated in the Arizona Department of Corrections increased by 26.0 percent. The rate of increase was close to five times higher than the national increase. At the end of calendar year 2013, 32.1 percent of inmates in the Arizona Department of Corrections were in prison for the violent offenses1 , 16.0 percent for property offenses,2 24.8 percent for drug and driving under the influence offenses, and 27.0 percent for other types of offenses. Juvenile Justice System From 2004 to 2007, the number of juveniles referred to juvenile court remained relatively stable at approximately 49,000 youth. From 2007 to 2010, the number of juveniles referred to juvenile court decreased by 15.7 percent and continued to decline between 2010 and 2013, representing an overall cumulative decline of 40.8 percent across the decade. From 2004 to 2013, the number of juveniles held in detention in Arizona decreased by 47.9 percent, from 12,688 to 6,610. The number of juveniles transferred to criminal court decreased 45.4 percent across the decade. The number of new commitments to the Arizona Department of Juvenile Corrections decreased 42.7 percent between 2004 and 2013. There was a 36.3 percent increase across the decade in the percentage of new commitments to the Arizona Department of Juvenile Corrections for youth with three to five prior adjudications of delinquency and a 49.4 percent decrease for youth with six or more prior adjudications of delinquency. Details: Phoenix: Arizona Criminal Justice Commission, 2015. 115p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 29, 2016 at: http://www.azcjc.gov/ACJC.Web/Pubs/Home/Arizona_Crime_Trends_Report_2004-2013.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: http://www.azcjc.gov/ACJC.Web/Pubs/Home/Arizona_Crime_Trends_Report_2004-2013.pdf Shelf Number: 147761 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsCriminal Justice Systems |
Author: Campo, Joe Title: Violent Crime Trends and Geographic Variations Summary: The Office of Financial Management's Health Care Research Center and its criminal justice Statistical Analysis Center have begun collaborating on the development of an online geographic information system. Once completed, that system will allow users to map various measures using both criminal justice and health-related data. In this research brief we use data compiled for that system to focus on violent crimes in Washington state. These data allow us to identify trends seen nationally, statewide and by county; to assess variations in violent crime rates seen among the counties; and, by in-depth examination of health-related data, to better understand the variation in the severity of injury among those violent crimes. For this brief, arrest data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting Programs Summary Reporting System (SRS) are used as the primary source of crime data. Vital statistics death data are used in comparing murder arrests and deaths, and inpatient and observation unit stays are used in comparing aggravated assault arrests and hospital stays. Joinpoint is used in identifying trends and, unless otherwise noted, 95 percent confidence intervals are used in determining if differences seen are statistically significant. Details: Olympia, WA: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2016. 15p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Brief No. 079: Accessed October 12, 2016 at: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/researchbriefs/2016/brief079.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/researchbriefs/2016/brief079.pdf Shelf Number: 140670 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsGeographical AnalysisViolent Crime |
Author: Males, Mike Title: Violent Crime Arrests of Youth in California Expected to Decline through 2020 Summary: This report from the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) predicts ongoing declines in the violent felony arrest rate of California's youth through 2020. The report analyzes past violent felony arrest data for two age groups — children under age 12 and youth ages 12-17 — to identify the relationship between childhood arrest rates today and those of older youth five years in the future. The analysis finds a strong, predictive relationship between the violent felony arrest rates of children under 12 and those of older youth ages 12-17. As such, recent declines in childhood arrest signal continuing and substantial declines in the arrest rate of older youth. The report finds: Arrest data suggest that a decline of 1 arrest per 100,000 children under age 12 would produce a decline of approximately 7.5 arrests per 100,000 12-17-year-old youth five years later. Recent declines in the violent felony arrest rates of children under 12 forecast a decline of 24 percent in the violent felony arrest rate of youth ages 12-17 from 2016 to 2020. This translates into a annual reduction of 1,600 to 1,700 arrests. A decline in the number of youth arrested annually for violent felonies will shrink the pool of youth eligible for commitment to local detention facilities and the state’s Division of Juvenile Justice. Details: San Francisco: Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, 2016. 5p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 7, 2016 at: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/youth_crime_arrest_projections_2020.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/youth_crime_arrest_projections_2020.pdf Shelf Number: 145312 Keywords: Arrest RatesCrime RatesCrime TrendsJuvenile OffendersViolent Crime |
Author: Waard, Jaap de Title: The crime drop in The Netherlands and other industrialized countries: Trends and possible explanations Summary: Crime in the Netherlands has been decreasing significantly since 2002, in terms of both property crime and violent crime. The sense of security has also become substantially greater. This observed decrease in crime also been seen in a large number of other industrialized countries. The question now is how this decrease in crime can be explained. On the basis of the available national and international knowledge, a number of explanations that have previously been given are described. Introduction An attempt will be made in this memorandum to answer the following questions. (1). Has the level of crime decreased? Where and to what extent has this decrease occurred? To which types of offences does this relate? On the basis of which sources, statistical and otherwise, can we make statements about this? (2). Why has crime decreased? What plausible explanations can be given? Various different hypotheses set out in the available literature will be assessed. (3). Special attention is given to the so-called security hypothesis. That is based on the fact that the increase and quality of the application of large-scale security measures, such as immobilizers, break-in prevention measures, private security and measures to limit opportunity, have been the significant driving force behind the observed decrease in crime, both nationally and internationally. (4). Finally, a number of main conclusions will be presented. Details: The Hague: Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice, Directorate for Law Enforcement and Crime Control, 2015. 48p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 17, 2017 at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jaap_De_Waard/publication/287759866_The_crime_drop_in_The_Netherlands_and_other_industrialized_countries_Trends_and_possible_explanations/links/567922db08aeaf87ed8afad6.pdf?origin=publication_detail Year: 2015 Country: International URL: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jaap_De_Waard/publication/287759866_The_crime_drop_in_The_Netherlands_and_other_industrialized_countries_Trends_and_possible_explanations/links/567922db08aeaf87ed8afad6.pdf?origin=publicat Shelf Number: 141087 Keywords: Crime Drop Crime Statistics Crime Trends |
Author: Friedman, Matthew Title: Crime Trends: 1990-2016 Summary: This report examines crime trends at the national and city level during the last quarter century. It covers the years 1990 through 2016, as crime rates peaked in 1991. It analyzes data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and from police departments from the nation's 30 largest cities. Data for 2016 are estimated, as full year data was not available at the time of publication. This report concludes that although there are some troubling increases in crime in specific cities, there is no evidence of a national crime wave. Key findings: Overall Trends: Crime has dropped precipitously in the last quarter-century. While crime may fall in some years and rise in others, annual variations are not indicative of long-term trends. While murder rates have increased in some cities, this report finds no evidence that the hard-won public safety gains of the last two and a half decades are being reversed. Overall Crime Rate: The national crime rate peaked in 1991 at 5,856 crimes per 100,000 people, and has generally been declining ever since. In 2015, crime fell for the 14th year in a row. Estimates based on preliminary data for 2016 indicate that the overall crime rate will remain stable at 2,857 offenses per 100,000, rising less than 1 percent from 2015. Today's crime rate is less than half of what it was in 1991. Violent Crime: The violent crime rate also peaked in 1991 at 716 violent crimes per 100,000, and now stands at 366, about half that rate. However, the violent crime rate, like rates of murder and overall crime, has risen and fallen during this time. For example, violent crime registered small increases in 2005 and 2006, and then resumed its downward trend. In 2015, violent crime increased by 2.9 percent nationally and by 2.0 percent in the nation's 30 largest cities. Preliminary data for 2016 also show a greater increase in the national violent crime rate, up 6.3 percent, and a smaller jump in the 30 largest cities, 2.4 percent. Crime is often driven by local factors, so rates in cities may differ from national averages. Murder: From 1991 to 2016, the murder rate fell by roughly half, from 9.8 killings per 100,000 to 5.3. The murder rate rose last year by an estimated 7.8 percent. With violence at historic lows, modest increases in the murder rate may appear large in percentage terms. Similarly, murder rates in the 30 largest cities increased by 13.2 percent in 2015 and an estimated 14 percent in 2016. These increases were highly concentrated. More than half of the 2015 urban increase (51.8 percent) was caused by just three cities, Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. And Chicago alone was responsible for 43.7 percent of the rise in urban murders in 2016. It is important to remember the relatively small base from which the percentage increases are calculated. City-Level Analysis: Appendix A provides detail on crime in each of the nation's 30 largest cities. The data demonstrate that crime rates and trends vary widely from city to city. In New York, for example, crime remains at all-time lows. Other cities, such as Washington, D.C., have seen murder rise and then fall recently, yet the rate is still lower than it was a decade ago. However, there are a small group of cities, such as Chicago, where murder remains persistently high, even by historical standards. Details: New York: Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law, 2017. 36p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 21, 2017 at: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Crime%20Trends%201990-2016.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Crime%20Trends%201990-2016.pdf Shelf Number: 145144 Keywords: Crime RatesCrime StatisticsCrime Trends |
Author: Wortley, Scot Title: The 2012-13 Jamaican National Crime Victimization Survey: Final Report Summary: The Jamaican National Crime Victimization Survey (JNCVS) has been developed and funded by the Ministry of National Security, Government of Jamaica. - The JNCVS is designed to contribute to the detailed and accurate analysis of major crime trends in Jamaica. - The JNCVS questionnaire was developed by Dr. Scot Wortley (Centre of Criminology and Socio-legal Studies, University of Toronto), Dr. Randy Seepersad (Criminology Department, University of the West Indies) and officials from both the Ministry ofNational Security and STATIN. - Although unique to Jamaica, the JNCVS is similar to crime victimization surveys conducted in other areas of the world. This design feature allows for cross-national comparisons. - Sampling, survey administration, data entry and data cleaning have been conducted by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). - The 1 st Jamaican National Crime Victimization Survey was conducted in 2006 and the 2nd in 2009. The current JNCVS is the 3rd in the series, with data collected from October 2012 to April 2013. - The purpose of this report is to: 1) Provide a basic description of the 2012-13 JNCVS; 2) Compare the final sample for the 2012-13 JNCVS with that of the 2006 and 2009 JCNVS; 3) Examine basic patterns of criminal victimization; 4) Examine the issue of indirect exposure to crime (i.e., witnessing crime); 5) Examine the criminal victimization of family and friends; 6) Investigate public fear of crime; and 7) Explore public attitudes towards the Jamaican police and criminal justice system. - When possible, comparisons with the results of the 2006 and 2009 surveys are provided. Details: Port-of-Spain: Jamaica Ministry of National Security, 2013. 361p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 5, 2017 at: http://www.mns.gov.jm/content/2012-13-jamaican-national-crime-victimization-survey-final-report Year: 2013 Country: Jamaica URL: http://www.mns.gov.jm/content/2012-13-jamaican-national-crime-victimization-survey-final-report Shelf Number: 145929 Keywords: Crime Statistics Crime Survey Crime TrendsCriminal Justice Systems Victimization Surveys |
Author: Males, Mike Title: Refuting Fear: Immigration, Youth, and CA's Stunning Declines in Crime and Violence Summary: As California's population moved from two-thirds white in 1980 to over 60 percent people of color today, the state has seen dramatic reductions in crime in each category. Additionally, indicators of social health and safety-such as violence, violent death and school dropouts-have decreased significantly, and California has weathered the national opioid epidemic better than elsewhere in the country. Since 1980, two demographic events have occurred alongside California-s decrease in crime that are important to explore. Racial and ethnic diversity driven by foreign immigration has increased sharply; Among young people (California's most diverse population), crime and violence trends have diverged sharply from those of older populations, led by a 72 percent decrease in youth violent crime rates and a 92 percent drop in homicide arrests of urban youth from 1980 to 2015. California's positive trends and lower levels of crime, particularly among young people, occurred alongside its transition to an all-minority state. These findings refute claims that increasing immigration will negatively impact society, or that "sanctuary cities," such as those found in California, cause increased crime. Once a state with unusually high rates of drug overdose, gun violence, and crime, California has demonstrated substantial gains in health and safety as its demographic composition has become more diverse and immigration has increased. The state's experience shows that racial transition can accompany greater public safety and well-being, a reality that should impact the national discussion over immigration. Details: San Francisco: Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, 2017. 9p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 20, 2017 at: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/refuting_fear_-_immigration_youth_and_californias_stunning_declines_in_crime_and_violence.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/refuting_fear_-_immigration_youth_and_californias_stunning_declines_in_crime_and_violence.pdf Shelf Number: 146320 Keywords: Crime TrendsImmigrants and CrimeImmigration |
Author: Campie, Patricia E. Title: Community-Based Violence Prevention Study of Safe and Successful Youth Initiative: An Intervention to Prevent Urban Gun Violence Summary: While the federal government has been steadily increasing support for funding violence prevention activities in urban centers and among older youth involved with guns and gangs, very few states have made this type of violence the focus of their crime prevention efforts. In 2010, Massachusetts invested in the Massachusetts Safe and Successful Youth Initiative (SSYI), an initiative launched in eleven cities with the highest per capita rates of violent crime. SSYI aims to reduce violence and promote healthy development and outcomes among young males, ages 14-24 who are at the greatest risk for violent offending and victimization. This report presents results from the Community-based Violence Prevention (CBVP) study of SSYI's impact on violent crime in Massachusetts. The overarching research question we examine is to what extent SSYI influenced changes in violent crime in SSYI communities and whether this influence is sustained over time. We also examine hypothesized factors related to SSYI effectiveness and resultant changes in violent crime. To explore our research questions we conducted: (1) analyses of changes in violent crime outcomes in SSYI communities in comparison with 30 other communities in Massachusetts; (2) examinations of community norms of violence and its relationship to police-community relations within each SSYI community; and, (3) investigations of the relationship between the myriad violence prevention and intervention efforts (including SSYI) and violent crime trends in Boston from 2007 to 2014. Details: Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2017. 91p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 26, 2017 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/250771.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/250771.pdf Shelf Number: 146385 Keywords: Community-Based ProgramsCrime TrendsGun ViolenceGun-Related ViolencePolice-Community RelationsViolence PreventionViolent Crime |
Author: Males, Mike Title: Most California Jurisdictions Show Declines in Property Crime During Justice Reform Era, 2010-2016 Summary: This report from the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice examines local trends in California's property crime from 2010 through 2016, a period marked by major justice system reform, including Public Safety Realignment, Prop 47, and Prop 57. Despite the relative stability of recent property crime trends, the report finds substantial variation in crime at the local level, which suggests that recent crime patterns may result from local policies rather than state policy reform. The report finds: From 2010 to 2016, property crime rates fell more than 3 percent statewide despite the implementation of large-scale criminal justice reforms. For every major crime except vehicle theft, more California jurisdictions reported decreases than increases in their crime rates from 2010 to 2016. For example, just 141 jurisdictions reported increased rates of burglary, while 367 jurisdictions showed decreases. Across California, crime trends have been highly localized. Of the 511 cities and local areas included in this analysis, 42 percent showed rising rates of property crime from 2010 to 2016, with an average increase of 12.8 percent, and 58 percent showed decreases, with an average decline of 18.1 percent. Many jurisdictions, especially those that began with higher rates of property crime, have devised successful policies and practices that are improving local safety. Jurisdictions that showed decreasing rates of property crime between 2010 and 2016 had higher rates at the start of the reform era than those showing increases. Details: San Francisco: Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, 2017. 5p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 20, 2017 at: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/most_california_jurisdictions_show_declines_in_property_crime_during_justice_reform_era.pdf Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: http://www.cjcj.org/uploads/cjcj/documents/most_california_jurisdictions_show_declines_in_property_crime_during_justice_reform_era.pdf Shelf Number: 148269 Keywords: BurglaryCrime StatisticsCrime TrendsProperty CrimePublic Safety Realignment |
Author: Beatton, Tony Title: Gender Crime Convergence over Twenty Years Summary: In her American Economic Association Presidential address, Goldin (2014) highlights the convergence in female/male economic and social outcomes as one of the most significant advances of the twentieth century. She points to gender convergence in human capital skills; women are overtaking men in terms of the proportion with a college degree, and there are declining gender differences in labour force participation and accumulated labour market experience. This study looks at an interesting and almost entirely neglected research question: "Do women look more like men in terms of crime participation?" This research explicitly focussed on trends in the gender gap in crime and on whether or not there is evidence of convergence. Our analysis uses very rich administrative data on the population of young people in Queensland, Australia. The evidence illustrates a significant narrowing of the gender-offending gap over a twenty-year period from 1995 onwards. This crime convergence occurs for property and violent crime, and for almost all sub-categories. We also employ a spatial panel data set by gender and police force district across four census years (2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016) to further explore crime trends by gender. This enables us to look at several factors that may be connected to gender crime convergence, and to present an illustrative decomposition of the gender gap in crime by these factors. Finally, we consider an education policy reform enacted in Queensland, the Earning or Learning reform that appears to have altered the speed of gender crime convergence in the mid to late 2000s. The study revealed a strong convergence in offending rates by gender amongst young people in Queensland, Australia. Dependent on crime type, and on the age of individuals, we show there has been a significant narrowing of the gender-offending gap over the last two decades. The reduction in the gender gap is larger for juveniles and, in particular, for property crime. Amongst violent crimes, there is evidence of substantial narrowing of the gender gap in assaults for juveniles. Education, in particular, Queenslands Earning or Learning reform seems to be an important factor in explaining cross-time and cross-gender changes. Details: Indooroopilly QLD: Institute for Social Science Research Institution, University of Queensland, 2017. 35p. Source: Internet Resource: Life Course Centre Working Paper Series, No. 2017-26: Accessed February 2, 2018 at: http://www.lifecoursecentre.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/LCC-Working-Paper-2017-20-Beatton-et-al.-.pdf Year: 2017 Country: Australia URL: http://www.lifecoursecentre.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/LCC-Working-Paper-2017-20-Beatton-et-al.-.pdf Shelf Number: 148970 Keywords: Crime TrendsEconomics and Crime Gender and Crime Life Course Criminology Socioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: Koper, Christopher S. Title: The Impact of Policing and Other Criminal and Juvenile Justice Trends on Juvenile Violence in Large Cities, 1994-2000 Summary: This paper reports research that was conducted as part of the University of Pennsylvania's project on "Understanding the 'Whys' Behind Juvenile Crime Trends." The "Whys" project, which was funded by the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention of the U.S. Department of Justice, was conducted to develop a better understanding of the downturn in juvenile crime that occurred in the 1990s and to use this knowledge to help practitioners and policymakers understand potential leading indicators of turning points in local juvenile crime trends. The main volume of the Whys report (which is available online at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/248954.pdf and at www.whysproject.org) discusses juvenile violence trends from the 1980s through the early 2000s and assesses evidence on a wide variety of community, developmental, cultural, and policy factors that have been hypothesized as possible causes of juvenile crime trends during this period. (Primary contributors to the main Whys report include Jeffrey Roth (project director), Reagan Daly, Christopher Koper, James Lynch, Howard Snyder, Monica Robbers, and other staff of CSR Incorporated.) The study reported in this paper was conducted as a complement to Chapter 5 of the Whys report, which examines national trends and research on public policies and practices, including those in the criminal and juvenile justice systems, that may have affected juvenile violence during the 1990s. (Readers interested in this background material, which is not reviewed here, should consult Chapter 5 of the Whys report.) As an extension of that work, this paper presents original research examining whether and how changes in criminal and juvenile justice practices and policies affected juvenile violence in urban areas during the 1990s. As discussed in the Whys report, there has been relatively little research directly testing the effects of changes in criminal and juvenile justice practices on the crime drop of the 1990s. Much of the evidence on these matters is indirect. This is particularly true with respect to the drop in juvenile violence. To address this gap in our understanding of the juvenile crime drop, we directly examine whether selected changes in policing, adult incarceration, juvenile detention, and juvenile waivers to adult court reduced juvenile violence in a sample of large U.S. cities from 1994 to 2000, controlling for changes in a variety of community characteristics. In sum, we find indications that police resources and strategies helped to reduce juvenile violence during the 1990s, but we find little or no evidence of beneficial effects from adult incarceration, juvenile detention, or waivers of juveniles to adult court. Details: Report to the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention , 2011. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 6, 2018 at: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f68c/54d6c45a27c2358f2a27e35c92894ce3f848.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f68c/54d6c45a27c2358f2a27e35c92894ce3f848.pdf Shelf Number: 149007 Keywords: Crime TrendsJuvenile CrimeJuvenile OffendersUrban Areas and CrimeViolent CrimeYouth Violence |
Author: Soderstrom, Maria Title: Swedish Crime Survey 2017 Summary: In 2017, two parallel Swedish Crime Surveys were conducted, the SCS - Standard and the SCS - Local. The SCS - Standard has been conducted with the same data collection method and sample as previously, while the SCS - Local has been conducted with a different method, involving another sample, revised questionnaires, and different data collection method. The technical report (Bra 2018) contains detailed accounts of the ways in which the surveys were conducted. As from 2018, the method which is used in what is presently called the SCS - Local will be the new standard method. This summary refers only to results from the SCS - Standard, although this year's report also comprises results from the SCS - Local. This is because the summary focuses on trends over time and the SCS - Local has only been conducted once. In general, however, a comparison of the two shows the SCS - Local reflects higher levels of victimisation and unsafety than the SCS - Standard. In addition, the SCS - Local indicates that a smaller percentage of the population has a high degree of confidence in thecriminal justice system as well as positive experience from contacts with the criminal justice system than is indicated by the SCS - Standard. The SCS - Standard has been conducted since 2006. In 2017, approximately 11,600 persons responded to the questions in the SCS - Standard, which is a 59 per cent response rate to the survey. Most participated in the SCS - Standard through telephone interviews, but a smaller percentage participated through posted questionnaires or internet questionnaires. Details: Stockholm: Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Bra), 2018. 24p. Source: Internet Resource: English summary of Bra report 2018:1: Accessed April 4, 2018 at: https://www.bra.se/download/18.10aae67f160e3eba6292cc95/1520607741267/2018_Swedish_Crime_Survey_2017.pdf Year: 2018 Country: Sweden URL: https://www.bra.se/download/18.10aae67f160e3eba6292cc95/1520607741267/2018_Swedish_Crime_Survey_2017.pdf Shelf Number: 149686 Keywords: Crime Statistics Crime TrendsNational Crime Survey |
Author: Goh, Derek Title: An update of long-term trends in violent and property crime in New South Wales: 1990-2017 Summary: Aim: The aim of this paper is to analyse the trends in the rates of annual recorded incidents of 10 categories of property and violent crime for the period 1990 to 2017 in New South Wales (NSW). Method: Offence rates were calculated using criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for the period 1995 to 2017, and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research's recorded crime statistics report series for the period 1990 to 1994. Kendall's trend test was run on the 24 annual rates for each of the 10 offence categories. Results: Some categories of crime in NSW are now at the lowest recorded levels they have been for over 25 years. Comparing per capita rates of crime in 2017 with per capita rates in 1990, lower rates were found for: robbery with a firearm (90% lower); motor vehicle theft (82% lower); break and enter non-dwelling (78% lower); murder (69% lower); robbery without a weapon (64% lower); break and enter dwelling (64% lower) and robbery with a weapon not a firearm (59% lower). Three of the ten offence types analysed in this report were found to have recorded rates higher in 2017 than in 1990: sexual assault (172% higher); other sexual offences (118% higher) and assault (59% higher). Conclusion: In the period since 1990, assault and sexual assault rates recorded significant long term upward trends whilst the other eight offences analysed in this report were trending down or stable. The 2017 sexual assault rate was the highest recorded since 1990. Apart from sexual assault and other sexual offences, the remaining eight offence types recorded significant downtrends in recorded rates since 2000. The three robbery and three property crime series all recorded falls of above 74 per cent since 2000. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2018. 6p. Source: Internet Resource: Bureau Brief; Issue Paper no. 131: Accessed April 6, 2018 at: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/BB/2018-Report-Long-term-trends-in-violent-and-property-crime-in-NSW-1990-2017-BB131.pdf Year: 2018 Country: Australia URL: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/BB/2018-Report-Long-term-trends-in-violent-and-property-crime-in-NSW-1990-2017-BB131.pdf Shelf Number: 149716 Keywords: Crime Rates Crime Statistics (Australia) Crime TrendsProperty Crime Violent Crime |
Author: Matthews, Ben Title: Criminal careers and the crime drop in Scotland, 1989-2011: an exploration of conviction trends across age and sex Summary: Rates of recorded crime have been falling in many countries in Western Europe, including Scotland, since the early 1990s. This marks the reversal of a trend of increasing levels of crime seen since the 1950s. Despite this important recent change, most analyses of the 'crime drop' have focused on recorded crime or victimisation rates aggregated to national or regional level. It is little known how patterns of offending or conviction have changed at the individual level. As a result it is not known how the crime drop is manifest in changing offending or conviction rates, or how patterns of criminal careers have changed over this period. The aim of this thesis is to explore trends in convictions across a number of criminal careers parameters - the age-crime curve, prevalence and frequency, polarisation and conviction pathways - over the course of the crime drop in Scotland. The results presented here are based on a secondary analysis of the Scottish Offenders Index, a census of convictions in Scottish courts, between 1989 and 2011. Analysis is conducted using a range of descriptive statistical techniques to examine change across age, sex and time. Change in the age-crime curve is analysed using data visualisation techniques and descriptive statistics. Standardisation and decomposition analysis is used to analyse the effects of prevalence, frequency and population change. Trends in conviction are also examined between groups identified statistically using Latent Class Analysis to assess the polarisation of convictions, and trends in the movement between these groups over time provides an indication of changing pathways of conviction. This thesis finds a sharp contrast between falling rates of conviction for young people, particularly young men, and increases in conviction rates for those between their mid-twenties and mid-forties, with distinct periods of change between 1989- 2000, 2000-2007 and 2007-2011. These trends are driven primarily by changes in the prevalence of conviction, and result in an increasingly even distribution of convictions over age. Analysis across latent classes shows some evidence of convictions becoming less polarised for younger men and women but increasingly polarised for older men and women. Similarities in trends analysed across latent classes between men and women of the same age suggest that the process driving these trends is broadly similar within age groups. Increases in conviction rates for those over 21 are explained by both greater onset of conviction and higher persistence in conviction, particularly between 1998 and 2004. The results of this thesis suggest that explanations of the crime drop must have a greater engagement with contrasting trends across age and sex to be able to properly explain falling conviction rates. These results also reinforce the need for criminal careers research to better understand the impact of recent changes social context on patterns of convictions over people's lives. The distinct periods identified in these results suggest a potential effect of changes in operation of the justice system in Scotland leading to high rates of convictions in the early 2000s. However, the descriptive focus of this analysis and its reliance upon administrative data from a single country mean this thesis cannot claim to definitively explain these trends. As a result, replication of this research in another jurisdiction is encouraged to assess whether trends identified are particular to Scotland. Details: Edinburgh: University of Edinburgh, 2017. 364p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed May 25, 2018 at: https://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/25810 Year: 2017 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/25810 Shelf Number: 150375 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsCriminal CareersCriminal Convictions |
Author: Payne, Jason Title: Where have all the young offenders gone? Examining changes in offending between two NSW birth cohorts Summary: New South Wales (NSW), like Australia overall, has experienced a large decline in crime since 2000, yet little is known about its causes. This study explored this decline through a developmental criminology lens by examining two birth cohorts involving all those born in New South Wales in 1984 and 1994. Comparisons between cohorts showed that, by age 21, the proportion of the population that had come into contact with the criminal justice system had halved (-49%), with the largest declines in vehicle theft (-59%), other property theft (-59%) and drink-driving (-49%). However, there remained a group of 'chronic' offenders (those committing 5+ offences) who committed crime at a higher rate and accounted for a larger proportion of offences (77%) than the 1984 cohort of 'chronic' offenders (68%). The crime decline in New South Wales would therefore appear to have resulted from a large reduction in the number of young people committing crime for the first time, although there remains a diminishing 'hard core' of prolific offenders. Details: Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2018. 16p. Source: Internet Resource: Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 553: Accessed June 14, 2018 at: https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi553 Year: 2018 Country: Australia URL: https://aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/tandi553 Shelf Number: 150537 Keywords: Crime StatisticsCrime TrendsJuvenile CrimeJuvenile DelinquentsJuvenile OffendersYouthful Offenders |
Author: Arredondo Sanchez Lira, Jaime Title: Mapping violence: homicides trends in Mexico and Brazil 1990-2010 Summary: Latin America has become one of the most violent regions in the world. Public Safety is now among the principal citizen's demands in some of those countries. This paper begins with a consideration of the role of police in answering the demand for public safety by local populations, and its role as a tool for exercising the state's monopoly of legitimate violence within a territory. Two relevant countries in the region, Brazil and Mexico, have undertaken police reform throughout these two decades, emphasizing lately a combination of new social and policing strategies. However, public opinion and the demand for solutions vary accordingly to changes in general crime trends; previous studies have used a methodology to understand such phenomenon. Homicides provide a good indicator of violence, since its measurement is based upon a common international methodology of mortality public health data. This research develops a new comparison approach that takes into account national tendencies, historical averages and the stability across time of homicides rates at the federal state level in Mexico and Brazil. These trends draw a general picture of violence that is helpful for future public policy discussions. The correlation between violence levels and stability of crime hold for the Brazilian case but not for Mexico, where we can observe a shift of violence to federal Border States and cities. The lack of proper crime statistics and a more detailed conceptualization of reform efforts should be address in future studies to fully understand regional tendencies and tailor local solutions. Details: San Diego: University of California, San Diego, 2012. 76p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed June 20, 2018 at: https://cloudfront.escholarship.org/dist/prd/content/qt4bd8c6p9/qt4bd8c6p9.pdf?t=msz23w Year: 2012 Country: Latin America URL: https://cloudfront.escholarship.org/dist/prd/content/qt4bd8c6p9/qt4bd8c6p9.pdf?t=msz23w Shelf Number: 150596 Keywords: Crime TrendsHomicidesPolice ReformPublic SafetyViolenceViolent Crime |
Author: Lesman, Bella Title: Victorian Crime Statistics by LGAs Summary: This publication provides crime data over a ten-year period for Victoria's local government areas (LGAs) with a brief overview for the whole of Victoria. The data is derived from Victoria's Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) as recorded by Victoria Police and extracted from the Victoria Police Law Enforcement Assistance Program (LEAP) database. For the whole of Victoria for the year ended March 2018, the total number of criminal offences decreased by 7.4 per cent, from 542,893 in 2017 to 502,858. For the same period, the offence rate decreased by 9.5 per cent, from 8,585.2 to 7,773.2 per 100,000 population. Although most offence categories in Victoria decreased over the twelve months to March 2018, crimes against the person rose by 0.9 per cent, driven by an increase of 1,586 sexual offences. Taking the population increase in Victoria into account for the year ended March 2018, the rate for crimes against the person decreased marginally over the year from, 1,258.2 to 1,240.7 offences per 100,000 population. However, sexual offences rose from 211.4 to 231.1 offences per 100,000 population. The crime statistics in this paper have been collated under the two main categories of offences recorded and offence rates(per 100,000 population ) and include statistics for the following five major recorded crime categories: 1. Crimes against the person; 2. Property and deception offences; 3. Drug offences; 4. Public order and security offences; and 5. Justice procedures offences. For each of these crime categories: a) The five LGAs with the highest number of offences for the year ended March 2018 are identified; b) The five LGAs with the highest offence rates for the year ended March 2018 are identified; c) Data for the five LGAs identified in (a) and (b) are presented with a ten-year snapshot revealing variations in the five crime categories between April 2008 to March 2018; and Summary data for all recorded crimes is presented for all Victorian LGAs in Section 2a and 2b and Appendix 1. Tables with offence numbers and offence rates per 100,000 population for the five major recorded crime categories can be found in the Appendices 2-6. Details: Melbourne: Victorian Parliament, Parliamentary Library & Information Service, 2018. 48p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Paper No. 2, August 2018: Accessed August 29, 2018 at: http://apo.org.au/system/files/188091/apo-nid188091-992676.pdf Year: 2018 Country: Australia URL: http://apo.org.au/system/files/188091/apo-nid188091-992676.pdf Shelf Number: 151282 Keywords: Crime Statistics Crime Trends |
Author: Berghuis, Bert Title: Declining Juvenile Crime: Explanations for the International Downturn Summary: The Netherlands registered youth crime figures show a spectacular downward trend from 2007 (minus 60%). This decrease can be seen amongst girls and boys, and also amongst ethnic minorities and the native Dutch. This trend can also be observed in a lot of other countries. It is striking that also in international terms youth crime has been capped. A strikingly similar picture is apparent to the one in the Netherlands. The level of the available evidence of the decrease in youth crime in a large number of different countries means that the possibility of a coincidental development occurring at the same time is extremely small, and hence there must be a causal connection. It seems that a number of international developments created a climate favorable for juvenile crime reduction: more (techno)prevention, less use of alcohol, more commitment to schooling, more satisfaction with living conditions, and the use of time. For The Netherlands this goes together with an diminished willingness of the Dutch police to follow up on suspicions that a youngster committed a minor offense. However, the real trigger for the freefall of youth crime seems to be the extensive worldwide dissemination of smartphones and online-games that started in 2006/7. This led to a lot of free time spent 'looking at screens' and not being present on the street and public space. So the main factor responsible for the fall in youth crime can be found in the use of free time and a different role and influence of peer groups. Details: Brussels, Belgium: European Union, 2018. 12p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed January 16, 2019 at: https://eucpn.org/document/declining-juvenile-crime-explanations-international-downturn-0 Year: 2017 Country: International URL: https://eucpn.org/sites/default/files/content/download/files/54._declining_juvenile_crime_-_explanations_for_the_international_downturn__0.pdf Shelf Number: 154228 Keywords: Crime TrendsJuvenile CrimeSmartphonesYouth Crime |