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Date: November 22, 2024 Fri
Time: 12:23 pm
Time: 12:23 pm
Results for criminal trajectories
5 results foundAuthor: Telesca, Donatello Title: Modeling Criminal Careers as Departures from a Unimodal Population Age-Crime Curve: The Case of Marijuana Use Summary: A major aim of longitudinal analyses of life course data is to describe the within- and between individual variability in a behavioral outcome, such as crime. Statistical analyses of such data typically draw on mixture and mixed-effects growth models. In this work, we present a functional analytic point of view and develop an alternative method that models individual crime trajectories as departures from a population age-crime curve. Drawing on empirical and theoretical claims in criminology, we assume a unimodal population age-crime curve and allow individual expected crime trajectories to differ by their levels of offending and patterns of temporal misalignment. We extend Bayesian hierarchical curve registration methods to accommodate count data and to incorporate influence of baseline covariates on individual behavioral trajectories. Analyzing self-reported counts of yearly marijuana use from the Denver Youth Survey, we examine the influence of race and gender categories on differences in levels and timing of marijuana smoking. We find that our approach offers a flexible and realistic model for longitudinal crime trajectories that fits individual observations well and allows for a rich array of inferences of interest to criminologists and drug abuse researchers. Details: Seattle, WA: Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 2011. 27p. Source: Internet Resource: Technical Report no. 5882: Accessed January 22, 2013 at: http://www.stat.washington.edu/research/reports/2011/tr588.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.stat.washington.edu/research/reports/2011/tr588.pdf Shelf Number: 127347 Keywords: Criminal CareersCriminal TrajectoriesDrug Abuse and CrimeDrug OffendersLongitudinal StudiesMarijuana |
Author: Francis, Brian Title: Understanding Criminal Careers in Organised Crime Summary: Organised crime is a dangerous and constantly evolving global phenomenon (Europol, 2011). In recent years the Home Office has made considerable efforts to combat this threat under the auspices of its national strategy Local to Global: Reducing the Risk from Organised Crime (HM Government, 2011). A significant gap in the UK evidence base on organised crime is around the offending careers of serious and organised criminals. - provide a profile of the characteristics of offenders involved in organised crime in England and Wales; The aim of this study is to increase understanding of the criminal careers of organised offenders and, in doing so, inform the development of policy and law enforcement responses. The research aims to: - chart the criminal careers of organised crime offenders; and - establish whether offence-based risk factors can be identified that may support early identification of organised crime offenders. Details: London: Home Office, 2013. 120p. Source: Internet Resource: Home Office Research Report 74: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/246392/horr74.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/246392/horr74.pdf Shelf Number: 131656 Keywords: Career CriminalsCriminal CareersCriminal HistoriesCriminal TrajectoriesOrganized Crime (U.K.)Risk Analysis |
Author: Hawes, Janelle M. Title: Within-Individual Differences in Offending from Adolescence to Young Adulthood: A Modified Theoretical Approach to Understanding Academic Achievement and Delinquency Summary: Motivated by General Strain Theory (GST), the project examines school strains and their effects on offending from adolescence to young adulthood. The project develops an extensive GST model, testing multiple measures of school strain (controlling for strains from multiple domains), coping mechanisms, and negative emotionality. I expand the traditional GST framework by adding measures of subjective meaning to the interpretation of strain. While the concept of subjective meaning has been suggested previously (Agnew, 1992; Cohen, 1955), I draw on psychological theories and suggestions by Agnew (1992) about understanding the perception of strain, to address critiques that the individual context in which the strain is experienced is not accounted for in existing empirical work on school strain and delinquency (Sander, Sharkey, Fisher, Bates, and Herren, 2011). To that end, the project uses three waves of data from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), which followed a cohort of students into adulthood. This study contributes to scholarship by examining gender differences in the relationship between school strains and offending over time, comparing multiple measures of school strain, and including measures of subjective meaning. Linear mixedeffects modeling is used to estimate relationships between school strain and offending, for male and female subsamples in order to identify gender differences in the ways school strains, subjective meaning, other strains, coping mechanisms, and negative emotionality affect offending. I utilize a GST framework to explain the results from the analysis. Findings revealed that while some school strains were positively related to offending trajectories, the subjective meaning of those strains made a difference in their consequences, either increasing or decreasing levels of offending, even when controlling for multiple forms of strain. Further, while some coping skills and mechanisms decreased the estimated level of offending trajectory, religiosity unexpectedly increased the estimated level of offending in females. The most significant finding from this study was the strong impact of school strains and the subjective meaning of strain on the level of offending over time. Details: Bowling Green, OH: Bowling Green State University, 2016. 198p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed October 14, 2016 at; https://etd.ohiolink.edu/!etd.send_file?accession=bgsu1460183708&disposition=inline Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: https://etd.ohiolink.edu/!etd.send_file?accession=bgsu1460183708&disposition=inline Shelf Number: 144802 Keywords: Criminal TrajectoriesEducation and Crime |
Author: Scrivens, Ryan Matthew Title: Understanding the collective identity of the radical right online: A mixed-methods approach Summary: Criminologists have generally agreed that the Internet is not only a tool or resource for right-wing extremists to disseminate ideas and products, but also a site of important identity work, accomplished interactively through the exchange of radical ideas. Online discussion forums, amongst other interactive corners of the Web, have become an essential conduit for the radical right to air their grievances and bond around their "common enemy." Yet overlooked in this discussion has been a macro-level understanding of the radical discussions that contribute to the broader collective identity of the extreme right online, as well as what constitutes "radical posting behaviour" within this context. Drawing from criminal career measures to facilitate this type of analysis, data was extracted from a sub-forum of the most notorious white supremacy forum online, Stormfront, which included 141,763 posts made by 7,014 authors over approximately 15 years. In study one of this dissertation, Sentiment-based Identification of Radical Authors (SIRA), a sentiment analysis-based algorithm that draws from traditional criminal career measures to evaluate authors' opinions, was used to identify and, by extension, assess forum authors' radical posting behaviours using a mixed-methods approach. Study two extended on study one by using SIRA to quantify authors' group-level sentiment about their common enemies: Jews, Blacks, and LGBTQs. Study three further extended on studies one and two by analyzing authors' radical posting trajectories with semi-parametric group-based modeling. Results highlighted the applicability of criminal career measures to study radical discussions online. Not only did this mixed-methods approach provide theoretical insight into what constitutes radical posting behaviour in a white supremacy forum, it also shed light on the communication patterns that contribute to the broader collective identity of the extreme right online. Details: Burnaby, BC: Simon Fraser University, 2017. 157p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed September 5, 2018 at: http://summit.sfu.ca/item/17632 Year: 2017 Country: Canada URL: http://summit.sfu.ca/item/17632 Shelf Number: 151402 Keywords: Criminal TrajectoriesExtremism Extremist Groups Radical Groups Radicalism Social Media White Supremacists |
Author: Francis, Brian Title: Modelling Escalation in Crime Seriousness: A Latent Variable Approach Summary: This paper investigates the use of latent variable models in assessing escalation in crime seriousness. It has two aims. The first is to contrast a mixed-effects approach to modelling crime escalation with a latent variable approach. The paper therefore examines whether there are specific subgroups of offenders with distinct seriousness trajectory shapes. The second is methodological - to compare mixed-effects modelling used in previous work on escalation with group-based trajectory modelling and growth mixture modelling (mixture of mixed-effects models). The availability of software is an issue, and comparisons of fit across software packages is not straightforward. We suggest that mixture models are necessary in modelling crime seriousness, that growth mixture models rather than group based trajectory models provide the best fit to the data, and that R gives the best software environment for comparing models. Substantively, we identify three latent groups, with the largest group showing crime seriousness increases with criminal justice experience (measured through number of conviction occasions) and decreases with increasing age. The other two groups show more dramatic non-linear effects with age, and non-significant effects of criminal justice experience. Policy considerations of these results are briefly discussed. Details: Metron, 2015. 23p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 4, 2019 at: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/75121/ Year: 2015 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/75121/ Shelf Number: 154466 Keywords: Crime Seriousness Criminal Careers Criminal Trajectories |