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Date: November 22, 2024 Fri
Time: 11:39 am
Time: 11:39 am
Results for geographic studies
21 results foundAuthor: Savoie, Josee Title: Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Crime in Canada: Summary of Major Trends, 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2006 Summary: "This paper summarizes the major trends in the series on the spatial analysis of crime conducted by the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics (CCJS) using geographic information system technology in Canadian cities. The main purpose of this analytical series, which was funded by the National Crime Prevention Centre at Public Safety Canada, was to explore the relationships between the distribution of crime and the demographic, socio‑economic and functional characteristics of neighbourhoods." Details: Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2008. 36p. Source: Internet Resource; Crime and Justice Research Paper Series; no. 15; Accessed August 16, 2010 at: http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/collection_2008/statcan/85-561-M/85-561-MIE2008015.pdf Year: 2008 Country: Canada URL: http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/collection_2008/statcan/85-561-M/85-561-MIE2008015.pdf Shelf Number: 112357 Keywords: (Canada)Crime Statistics (Canada)Geographic StudiesNeighborhoods and CrimeSocioeconomic Status (Canada)Spatial Analysis |
Author: Mack, Elizabeth A. Title: Sex Offenders and Residential Location: A Predictive Analytic Framework Summary: Despite the growing body of research dealing with sex offenders and the collateral consequences of legislation governing their post release movements, a complete understanding of the residential choices of registered sex offenders remains elusive. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a predictive analytical framework for determining which demographic and socioeconomic factors best forecast the residential choices of convicted sex offenders. Specifically, using a derived index of social disorganization (ISDOR) and a commercial geographic information system (GIS), we implement both linear statistical and non-linear data mining approaches to predict the presence of sex offenders in a community. The results of this analysis are encouraging, with nearly 75% of registered offender locations predicted correctly. The implications of these approaches for public policy are discussed. Details: Tempe, AZ: Arizona State University, GeoDa Center for Geospatial Analysis and Computation, 2010. 37p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper No. 2010-03: Accessed October 14, 2010 at: http://geodacenter.asu.edu/drupal_files/2010-03_0.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://geodacenter.asu.edu/drupal_files/2010-03_0.pdf Shelf Number: 119955 Keywords: Data MiningGeographic StudiesGeospatial AnalysisGISResidency RestrictionsSex OffendersSocioeconomic Status |
Author: Broidy, Lisa M. Title: Travel to Violence Summary: This study uses incident-level data from the Albuquerque Police Department along with data from the U.S. Census to explore the characteristics of offenders, incidents, and neighborhoods in Albuquerque, New Mexico to determine what influences travel distances for non-domestic assaults, robberies, and burglaries. Knowledge concerning the geo-spatial distribution of offenders, victims, and incidents is essential to the development of data-driven policing practices. Aspects of community policing, quality-of-life enforcement strategies, and the use of civil injunctions in addressing problematic areas hold implicit assumptions concerning the concentration of criminal participants and incidents. Information concerning the distances that potential offenders travel to crime, as well the characteristics of participants and incidents that influence these distances can inform these strategies and help agencies decide how to best utilize resources. Details: Albuquerque, NM: New Mexico Statistical Analysis Center, Institute for Social Research, University of New Mexico, 2007. 30p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 21, 2010 at: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Travel_to_Violence.pdf Year: 2007 Country: United States URL: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Travel_to_Violence.pdf Shelf Number: 109255 Keywords: AssaultsBurglariesCrime AnalysisDistance to CrimeGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesRobberies |
Author: Cadora, Eric Title: Travis Community Impact Supervision. Thinking About Location: Orienting Probation to Neighborhood Based Supervision Summary: The Travis County Community Supervision and Corrections Department (CSCD) in Austin, Texas (the county’s adult probation department) has teamed up with The JFA Institute in a two-year effort to reengineer the operations of the department to support more effective supervision strategies. The goal is to strengthen probation by using an evidence-based practices (EBP) model. The Travis County CSCD, the Community Justice Assistance Division of the Texas Department of Criminal Justice, and the Open Society Institute have provided funds to support the reengineering effort and use the department as an “incubator” site to develop, test and document organization-wide changes directed at improving assessment, supervision, sanctioning, personnel training and quality control policies. The Travis County CSCD is the fifth largest probation system in the state and, as such, has tremendous impact on the state probation system. The total number of offenders under some form of probation supervision in Travis County in FY 2005 was 22,827. This report presents an analysis of the geographical location of the Travis County probation population using mapping technology. The analysis was conducted by Eric Cadora and his team at the JFA Mapping Center in New York City. A great number of the persons entering and exiting the Texas prison system and persons on probation tend to concentrate in specific neighborhoods in our large metropolitan areas. Mapping analysis identifies these concentrations in specific geographical locations. The goal is to provide a visual depiction of the geographical distribution of the probation population to identify high density neighborhoods that can be targeted for a neighborhood based supervision approach. The neighborhood based approach consolidates caseloads with fewer officers specifically assigned to supervising probationers in those locations. This can be done in Travis County in at least three neighborhoods. The research also shows that neighborhoods receiving the most offenders released from prison are also neighborhoods with a high concentration of probationers. Present supervision practices between the probation and parole agencies in these neighborhoods are not coordinated. Collaboration between these agencies may lead to more effective supervision that leverages resources between the agencies and between the agencies and neighborhood partners. The visualization of concentrated parole and probation populations in what we call “high stakes” communities is critical for more effective policy. The notion is that, although we need policies that address the overall issue of criminality and the supervision of justice populations regardless of where persons are committing crimes or where they live, we also need to consider the location of concentrated justice populations. Details: Washington, DC: JFA Institute, 2006. 18p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 18, 2011 at: http://caction.org/research_reports/reports/TravisCommunityImpactSupervision2006.pdf Year: 2006 Country: United States URL: http://caction.org/research_reports/reports/TravisCommunityImpactSupervision2006.pdf Shelf Number: 122085 Keywords: Alternatives to IncarcerationCommunity CorrectionsGeographic StudiesMappingNeighborhoodsParoleesProbation (Texas)Probationers |
Author: Groff, Elizabeth Title: Modeling the Dynamics of Street Robberies Summary: Achieving a better understanding of the crime event in its context remains an important research area in criminology that has major implications for making better policy and developing effective crime prevention strategies. However, progress in this area has been handicapped by a lack of micro-level data and modeling tools that can capture the dynamic interactions of individuals and the context in which they occur. This research creates a conceptual model of street robberies that is based on extant theory and empirical research. Four distinct versions of that conceptual model are implemented using agent-based modeling software (ABMS). All of these versions incorporate core elements of routine activity theory — a motivated offender, suitable target, and a lack of capable guardians. From a research standpoint, this enables specific components of routine activity theory to be explored within a controlled environment. Specifically, the core premise that changes in the social structure have increased crime rates will be examined by varying the time spent away from home over five different temporal experiments. While the original concept of social changes in routine activities did not explicitly consider spatial aspects, this research draws from the geographic literature on activity spaces and offender travel behavior. Inclusion of spatial aspects is accomplished by defining two different types of agent movement—directed and random on two different landscapes – uniform grid and street network. The focus of this study is on operationalizing theory to study the dynamic interactions between individuals from which aggregate crime rates and crime patterns emerge. Research conducted using simulation offers a cost-effective supplement to field research. When used in concert, the two methods focus investments in research by identifying strategies that simulation indicates are promising for further research via field experiments. Research conducted with simulation software offers the ability to examine a variety of policy questions related to crime prevention, policing strategies, and the best response to terrorist incidents. In the area of crime prevention, expensive policies suggested by Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) literature could be tested before investments in physical changes are made. Exploration of the components of the decision to offend (victim selection, guardianship, site characteristics, etc.) will suggest concrete policy direction to prevent crime. Different policing strategies can be tested (e.g., hot spots policing) to examine the rate and size of the resulting diffusion. Finally, simulation can be used to model the reactions of people during catastrophic events. The model developed here provides the foundation for additional, more richly specified models to be developed. Details: Alexandria, VA: Institute for Law and Justice, 2008. 125p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 3, 2011 at: http://www.ilj.org/publications/docs/Modeling_Dynamics_Street_Robberies.pdf Year: 2008 Country: United States URL: http://www.ilj.org/publications/docs/Modeling_Dynamics_Street_Robberies.pdf Shelf Number: 122287 Keywords: Geographic StudiesRobberyStreet Robbery |
Author: Broidy, Lisa Title: Schools and Neighborhood Crime Summary: The objective of this research is to determine the degree to which neighborhood crime patterns are influenced by the location, level, and quality of neighborhood schools. A small body of research has investigated the link between schools and neighborhood crime (Roncek and Lobosco, 1983; Roncek and Faggiani, 1985; Roman, 2004; Kautt and Roncek, 2007). This body of research, as a whole, suggests that schools generate crime at the neighborhood level. Because neighborhood boundaries are difficult to identify, neighborhood level research generally defines neighborhoods using geographic boundaries defined by the U.S. Census Bureau (Sampson, Morenoff, and Gannon-Rowley, 2002). Research examining schools and crime has been uniformly conducted at smallest geographic unit defined by the U.S. Census Bureau: the block. The U.S. Census Bureau, however, releases data on a wider range of social indicators at larger levels of analysis (like the block group and tract). Consequently, previous research has been unable to control for a wide array of social-structural factors when examining the relationship between schools and neighborhood crime. Therefore, previous research on schools and crime cannot definitively demonstrate that schools are related to crime above and beyond factors like structural disadvantage, residential mobility, and family disruption. In addition to limited controls for key structural determinants of crime, most studies examining schools and neighborhood crime focus exclusively on high schools. This is also problematic, as some research suggests that crime and victimization may be similarly elevated near elementary and middle schools (Nolin, Davies, and Chandler, 1996; Wilcox et al., 2005). Interestingly, the single neighborhood study (Kautt and Roncek, 2007) that has considered elementary, middle, and high schools together found that neighborhoods with elementary schools have more burglaries than those without elementary schools. The study, however, showed no such relationship when comparing neighborhoods with and without middle schools or high schools. At the very least, this work suggests that research examining the relationship between schools and crime rates should not focus exclusively on the effect of high schools. Moreover, no previous studies on schools and neighborhood crime have investigated the role of school quality. The social disorganization perspective argues that strong social institutions can prevent crime (Krivo and Peterson, 1996), suggesting that high quality schools may help prevent crime, while lower quality schools might foster crime. In this study, we use incident-crime data from Albuquerque, New Mexico, to address some of the limitations of the current research on schools and crime at the neighborhood level. Specifically, we assess the influence of the presence and quality of elementary, middle and high schools on neighborhood crime rates, net of key structural correlates of crime. First, we utilize the block group as our level of analysis. This allows us to investigate the effects of schools, while controlling for a wider array of variables than previous studies. By controlling for concepts like structural disadvantage, residential mobility, and family disruption, we can be more certain that any significant relationship between schools and neighborhood crime is reflective of school effects and not of structural conditions. We also disaggregate our analysis by schools and by type of crime. By including elementary, middle, and high schools in our analysis, we address the possibility that different levels of schools are related to neighborhood crime in different ways. Moreover, we consider the possibility that various characteristics of schools, including school quality and school size, moderate the relationship between school presence and neighborhood crime. And finally, we examine the relationship between schools and crime by time of day, in order to address the possibility that the effect of schools on crime may be constrained to the hours during which youth are likely to be in or around the school area. In each of these analyses, we examine the relationship between schools and a variety of different types of crime. In sum, the current research examines the following questions: Are schools related to neighborhood crime? Does this relationship vary based on crime type, school type, school quality, and time of day? This report is organized into five chapters. The second chapter presents a literature review of the research on this topic. In addition to reviewing previous research on schools and crime, this chapter also frames the topic in terms of relevant sociological theory. The third chapter describes the data and methodologies that we used to investigate the relationship between schools and crime. The fourth chapter presents the results of our research. The fifth and final chapter discusses these results, presents empirical and theoretical conclusions, and addresses directions for future research. Details: Report prepared for the Justice Research Statistics Association, 2008(?). 47p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 28, 2011 at: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Schools_Crime.pdf Year: 2008 Country: United States URL: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Schools_Crime.pdf Shelf Number: 122932 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic StudiesNeighborhoods and CrimeSchools and Crime |
Author: Hussey, Andrew Title: Crime Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina Summary: Using a di erences-in-di erences approach, we estimate the e ects of migration due to Hurricane Katrina on crime rates across the United States between 2003 and 2007. To account for possible endogeneity between the socio-economic characteristics of a host city and evacuees, we instrument the number of evacuees going to a certain metropolitan area by its distance to New Orleans, LA. Our results suggest that im- migration of Katrina evacuees led to a more than 13 percent increase in murder and non-negligent manslaughter, an almost 3 percent increase in robbery, and a 4.1 per- cent increase in motor vehicle theft. We also examine Houston, TX, home to a large number of comparatively more disadvantaged evacuees, and nd dramatic increases in murder (27 percent) and aggravated assault (28 percent) coupled with increases in illegal possession of weapons (32 percent) and arson (41 percent) in areas lived by evacuees. While these estimated e ects are substantial, we are unable to determine whether the crimes were committed by evacuees, or were triggered by their presence. Details: Memphis, TN: University of Memphis, Department of Economics, 2011. 43p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 3, 2011 at: http://umdrive.memphis.edu/ajhussey/www/Katrina_5_28.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://umdrive.memphis.edu/ajhussey/www/Katrina_5_28.pdf Shelf Number: 122970 Keywords: Crime DisplacementCrime PatternsGeographic StudiesHurricane KatrinaMigration (U.S.)Natural Disasters |
Author: Weisburd, David Title: Understanding Developmental Crime Trajectories at Places: Social Disorganization and Opportunity Perspectives at Micro Units of Geography Summary: Individuals and communities have traditionally been the focus of criminological research, but recently criminologists have begun to explore the importance of “micro” places (e.g. addresses, street segments, and clusters of street segments) in understanding and controlling crime. Recent research provides strong evidence that crime is strongly clustered at hot spots and that there are important developmental trends of crime at place, but little is known about the geographic distribution of these patterns or the specific correlates of crime at this micro level of geography. We report here on a large empirical study that sought to address these gaps in our knowledge of the “criminology of place.” Linking 16 years of official crime data on street segments (a street block between two intersections) in Seattle, Washington to a series of data sets examining social and physical characteristics of micro places over time, we examine not only the geography of developmental patterns of crime at place but also the specific factors that are related to different trajectories of crime. We use two key criminological perspectives, social disorganization theories and opportunity theories, to inform our identification of risk factors in our study and then contrast the impacts of these perspectives in the context of multivariate statistical models. Our first major research question concerns whether social disorganization and opportunity measures vary across micro units of geography, and whether they are clustered, like crime, into “hot spots.” Study variables reflecting social disorganization include property value, housing assistance, race, voting behavior, unsupervised teens, physical disorder, and urbanization. Measures representing opportunity theories include the location of public facilities, street lighting, public transportation, street networks, land use, and business sales. We find strong clustering of such traits into social disorganization and opportunity “hot spots,” as well as significant spatial heterogeneity. We use group-based trajectory modeling to identify eight broad developmental patterns across street segments in Seattle. Our findings in this regard follow an earlier NIJ study that identified distinct developmental trends (e.g. high increasing and high decreasing patterns) while noting the overall stability of crime trends for the majority of street segments in Seattle. We go beyond the prior study by carefully examining the geography of the developmental crime patterns observed. We find evidence of strong heterogeneity of trajectory patterns at street segments with, for example, the presence of chronic trajectory street segments throughout the city. There is also strong street to street variability in crime patterns, though there is some clustering of trajectory patterns in specific areas. Our findings suggest that area trends influence micro level trends (suggesting the relevance of community level theories of crime). Nonetheless, they also show that the bulk of variability at the micro place level is not explained by trends at larger geographic levels. In identifying risk factors related to developmental trajectories, we find confirmation of both social disorganization and opportunity theories. Overall, street segments evidencing higher social disorganization are also found to have higher levels of crime. For many social disorganization measures increasing trends of social disorganization over time were associated with increasing trajectory patterns of crime. Similarly, in the case of opportunity measures related to motivated offenders, suitable crime targets, and their accessibility, we find that greater opportunities for crime are found at street segments in higher rate trajectory patterns. Finally, we use multinomial logistic regression to simultaneously examine opportunity and social disorganization factors and their influence on trajectory patterns. The most important finding here is that both perspectives have considerable salience in understanding crime at place, and together they allow us to develop a very strong level of prediction of crime. Our work suggests it is time to consider an approach to the crime problem that begins not with the people who commit crime but with the micro places where crimes are committed. This is not the geographic units of communities or police beats that have generally been the focus of crime prevention, but it is a unit of analysis that is key to understanding crime and its development. Details: Final report to the U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2009. 379p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 5, 2011 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/236057.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/236057.pdf Shelf Number: 122991 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Hot SpotsCrime LocationsCrime MappingGeographic StudiesHigh Crime Areas |
Author: Weisburd, David L. Title: Hot Spots of Juvenile Crime: Findings From Seattle Summary: This bulletin summarizes the results of a study that reviewed the distribution of juvenile crime in Seattle. The researchers geographically mapped the crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested to identify the rates and hot spots of juvenile crime in the city. Key findings include the following: • Fifty percent of all juvenile crime incidents occurred at less than 1 percent of street segments—an area that includes the addresses on both sides of a street between two intersections. All juvenile crime incidents occurred at less than 5 percent of street segments. • Juvenile crime was concentrated in public and commercial areas where youth gather—schools, youth centers, shops, malls, and restaurants—rather than residential areas.• Crime rates often vary from one street segment to the next, suggesting that police efforts targeting these hot spots can reduce crime. • Many juvenile crime hot spots coincide with areas where youth congregate, which indicates that closer supervision of these public places, in the form of place managers or patrols, may help lower juvenile crime rates in those areas. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, 2011. 15p. Source: Internet Resource: Juvenile Justice Bulletin: Accessed October 18, 2011 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/231575.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/231575.pdf Shelf Number: 123048 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Hot SpotsGeographic StudiesHigh Crime AreasJuvenile CrimeJuvenile Offenders (Seattle) |
Author: Malleson, Nick Title: Evaluating an Agent-Based Model of Burglary Summary: An essential part of any modelling research is to evaluate how a model performs. This paper will outline the process of evaluating a new agent-based model that is being developed to predict rates of residential burglary. The model contains a highly detailed environment which is representative of Leeds, UK. Following Castle and Crooks (2006), the process of evaluating the model will be segregated into three distinct activities: verification, calibration and validation. Verification refers to the process of establishing whether or not the model has been built correctly. This can be an extremely difficult process with complex models. Here, verification is accomplished by “plugging-in” different types of virtual environment which enables the researcher to limit environmental complexity and thus isolate the part of the model that is being tested. Following verification, calibration is the process of configuring the model parameters so that the output match some field conditions. However, this is a non-trivial task with models that are inherently spatial as it must be decided how to compare the two data sets. To this end, the paper will explore a number of spatial techniques and statistics that can be used to compare spatial data before documenting the process of calibrating the model. After calibration, it is necessary to ensure that the model has not been over-fitted to the calibration data (a process termed validation). Here, this is accomplished by running the model using environmental data from a different time period and comparing the results to the corresponding crime data. Details: Leeds, UK: School of Geography, University of Leeds, 2010. 84p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper 10/1: Accessed January 20, 2012 at: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/10_1.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/10_1.pdf Shelf Number: 123684 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic StudiesGeographical Information Systems (GIS)Residential BurglarySpatial Analysis |
Author: Kongmuang, Charatdao Title: SimCrime: A Spatial Microsimulation Model for the Analysing of Crime in Leeds Summary: This Working Paper presents SimCrime, a static spatial microsimulation model for crime in Leeds. It is designed to estimate the likelihood of being a victim of crime and crime rates at the small area level in Leeds and to answer what-if questions about the effects of changes in the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the future population. The model is based on individual microdata. Specifically, SimCrime combines individual microdata from the British Crime Survey (BCS) for which location data is only at the scale of large areas, with census statistics for smaller areas to create synthetic microdata estimates for output areas (OAs) in Leeds using a simulated annealing method. The new microdata dataset includes all the attributes from the original datasets. This allows variables such as crime victimisation from the BCS to be directly estimated for OAs. Details: Leeds, UK: School of Geography, University Leeds, 2006. 55p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper 06/1: Accessed January 20, 2012 at: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/4982/1/SimCrime_WorkingPaper_version1.1.pdf Year: 2006 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/4982/1/SimCrime_WorkingPaper_version1.1.pdf Shelf Number: 123688 Keywords: Crime Analysis (U.K.)Geographic StudiesGeographical Information SystemsSocioeconomic StatusSpatial AnalysisVictims of Crime |
Author: Malleson, Nick Title: Simulating Burglary with an Agent-Based Model Summary: Understanding the processes behind crime is an important research area in criminology, which has major implications for both improving policies and developing effective crime prevention strategies (Brantingham and Brantingham, 2004; Groff, 2007a). In order to test modern opportunity theories it is essential to be able model the complex, dynamic interactions of the individuals involved in each crime event. However, studies to date are limited in their ability to provide consistent support for these theories due to an inability to model complex micro-level interactions (Groff, 2007a). Agent-based modelling (ABM) represents a shift in the social sciences towards the use of models that work at the level of the individual. Using the ABM paradigm, human agents can be implemented with realistic human behaviour who interact with each other and their environment to create a dynamic system which mimics a real scenario. This paper presents the development and application of an ABM for simulating the occurrence of residential burglary at an individual level. Experiments are conducted investigate the effectiveness of burglary reduction strategies and criminology theories. The model is able to demonstrate that a commonly used crime-reduction initiative is ineffective at removing crime hotspots. Details: Leeds, UK: School of Geography, University of Leeds, 2009. 45p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper 09/3: Accessed January 20, 2012 at: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/09-03.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/09-03.pdf Shelf Number: 123689 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PreventionGeographic StudiesProperty CrimesResidential Burglary (Leeds) |
Author: LaFree, Gary Title: Hot Spots of Terrorism and Other Crimes in the United States, 1970 to 2008 Summary: While efforts are increasingly aimed at understanding and identifying “hot spots” of ordinary crime, little is known about the geographic concentration of terrorist attacks. What areas are most prone to terrorism? Does the geographic concentration of attacks change over time? Do specific ideologies motivate and concentrate terrorist attacks? Moreover, what factors increase the risk that an attack will occur in a particular area? Using recently released data from the Global Terrorism Database, we address these gaps in our knowledge by examining county-level trends in terrorist attacks in the United States from 1970 through 2008. This research was motivated by issues related to three research areas: geographic concentration of terrorist attacks, terrorism and ordinary crime, and predicting geographic concentrations of terrorist attacks. Like ordinary crime, terrorism hot spots are predominately located in large, metropolitan areas. While some locales remain targets of terrorist attacks, to a large extent hot spots of terrorist attacks demonstrate a significant amount of variability over time. Moreover, we find significant variability in the ideologies motivating terrorist attacks across decades. Terrorism and ordinary crime occur in many of the same areas. We find that while some traditional predictors of ordinary crime also predict terrorist attacks, many robust correlates of ordinary crime do not. These data were limited in some respects; much more work in this area is needed to fully understand the linkages between terrorism and ordinary crime. Details: College Park, MD: START, 2012. 36p. Source: Final Report to Human Factors/Behavioral Science Division, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security: Internet Resource: Accessed February 4, 2012 at http://start.umd.edu/start/publications/research_briefs/LaFree_Bersani_HotSpotsOfUSTerrorism.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://start.umd.edu/start/publications/research_briefs/LaFree_Bersani_HotSpotsOfUSTerrorism.pdf Shelf Number: 123973 Keywords: Crime DataCrime StatisticsGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesHot SpotsTerrorismUniform Crime Reports |
Author: Smith, Laura M. Title: Adaptation of an Animal Territory Model to Street Gang Spatial Patterns in Los Angeles Summary: Territorial animals and street gangs exhibit similar behavioral characteristics. Both organize themselves around a home base and mark their territories to distinguish claimed regions. Moorcroft et al. model the formation of territories and spatial distributions of coyote packs and their markings in [24]. We modify this approach to simulate gang dynamics in the Hollenbeck policing division of eastern Los Angeles. We incorporate important geographical features from the region that would inhibit movement, such as rivers and freeways. From the gang and marking densities created by this method, we create a rivalry network from overlapping territories and compare the graph to both the observed network and those constructed through other methods. Data on the locations of where gang members have been observed is then used to analyze the densities created by the model. Details: Unpublished Paper, 2012. 22p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 10, 2012 at Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 124432 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGangs (Los Angeles)Geographic StudiesSpatial Analysis |
Author: Tran, Peter Title: Rochester Motor Vehicle Break-Ins Summary: This paper will examine the issues of motor vehicle break–ins in Rochester through spatial, temporal, aoristic and other environmental analysis. These use analysis are also used to determine the increase or decrease in motor vehicle breaks in certain PSA (Police Service Area) within particular days, weeks, and months. These certain PSAs were selected based upon the high increase or hotspots of motor vehicle break-ins the city of Rochester; these PSAs are 30, 44, 46, 50, and 51. The PSAs selected includes residential areas as well as commercial areas within Rochester. The data of motor vehicle break-ins collected are from the beginning of May 2007 to the end of April 2009. Details: Rochester, NY: Center for Public Safety Initiatives, Rochester Institute of Technology, 2009. 18p. Source: Working Paper # 2009-07: Internet Resource: Accessed May 8, 2012 at http://www.rit.edu/cla/cpsi/WorkingPapers/2009/2009-07.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: http://www.rit.edu/cla/cpsi/WorkingPapers/2009/2009-07.pdf Shelf Number: 125214 Keywords: Crime StatisticsGeographic StudiesSpatial AnalysisTheft from Motor Vehicles (New York) |
Author: Des Forges, Michaela Title: Marking Space and Making Place: Geographies and Graffiti in Wellington, New Zealand Summary: Contemporary graffiti dates from the 1960s when hip-hop style graffiti grew in popularity amongst youth in Philadelphia and New York. It has since spread throughout the world and its various forms and styles are considered both art and vandalism. In Aotearoa New Zealand, graffiti is seen in most urban areas and is regarded as a major problem for local authorities. Despite this, research concerning graffiti in New Zealand is sparse. This research contributes to emerging work on graffiti in Wellington and New Zealand. It aims to provide an insight into the geographies of graffiti in Wellington by exploring the visual, spatial, and temporal aspects of graffiti, as well as the social dynamics informing its production and distribution. Using this information I investigate parallels between what is happening locally and what has been documented in international research. To carry out the research aims, I employed qualitative observations of selected sites around the city over time and used photographs to interpret and document graffiti. I also carried out semi-structured interviews with some graffitists, in addition to people involved in city safety and efforts to stop graffiti. In framing the research I specifically draw from critical geography writing on discourse, power, resistance, place, and space which are particularly salient in regards to graffiti. The research documents similarities with international research in regards to the motivations, rules, and visual, temporal, and spatial aspects. However, Wellington graffitists interact with, and utilise, the city’s space in unique and multifaceted ways which reflect and exhibit localised differences worthy of consideration internationally. For instance, graffitists use, view, and read the urban environment in ways that result in them having an intimacy with the urban environment. Additionally, graffitists think about where they place their graffiti with regards to property, location, intended audiences, and observance to subculture rules. Details: Wellington, New Zealand: School of Geography, Environment & Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, 2011. 139p. Source: Masters Thesis: Internet Resource: Accessed September 16, 2012 at http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10063/2021/thesis.pdf?sequence=2 Year: 2011 Country: New Zealand URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10063/2021/thesis.pdf?sequence=2 Shelf Number: 126349 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesGraffiti (New Zealand) |
Author: Levinthal, Jodi Title: The Community Context of Animal and Human Maltreatment: Is there a Relationship between Animal Maltreatment and Human Maltreatment: Does Neighborhood Context Matter? Summary: The purpose of the study is to explore the influence of demographic and neighborhood factors on the phenomenon of animal maltreatment in an urban setting as well as the association of animal maltreatment with human maltreatment. Using a unique dataset of animal maltreatment from the Pennsylvania Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, the distribution and prevalence of animal neglect, abuse, and dog fighting in Philadelphia were mapped with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Statistical analysis was employed to examine the relationship between animal maltreatment and neighborhood factors, domestic violence, and child maltreatment. The low correlation between animal abuse and neighborhood factors in this study suggests that animal abuse may be better explained as an individual phenomenon than a behavior that is a function of neighborhoods. However, animal neglect does correlate with demographic, cultural, and structural aspects of block groups, suggesting social disorganization may lead to animal neglect. This study also suggests that dog fighting is a crime of opportunity, as dog fighting correlates with indicators of abandoned properties. Finally, this study is unable to demonstrate a community link between animal maltreatment and child maltreatment, which does not preclude the link among individuals. The findings suggest caution in policies and advocacy campaigns that link human and animal violence in all arenas. Details: Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania, 2010. 115p. Source: Publicly accessible Penn Dissertations, Paper 274: Internet Resource: Accessed September 20, 2012 at http://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/274/ Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/274/ Shelf Number: 126375 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCruelty to AnimalsGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesNeighborhoods and CrimeViolence |
Author: Ritterbusch, Amy E. Title: A Youth Vision of the City: The Socio-Spatial Lives and Exclusion of Street Girls in Bogota, Colombia Summary: This dissertation documents the everyday lives and spaces of a population of youth typically constructed as out of place, and the broader urban context in which they are rendered as such. Thirty-three female and transgender street youth participated in the development of this youth-based participatory action research (YPAR) project utilizing geo-ethnographic methods, auto-photography, and archival research throughout a six-phase, eighteen-month research process in Bogotá, Colombia. This dissertation details the participatory writing process that enabled the YPAR research team to destabilize dominant representations of both street girls and urban space and the participatory mapping process that enabled the development of a youth vision of the city through cartographic images. The maps display individual and aggregate spatial data indicating trends within and making comparisons between three subgroups of the research population according to nine spatial variables. These spatial data, coupled with photographic and ethnographic data, substantiate that street girls’ mobilities and activity spaces intersect with and are altered by state-sponsored urban renewal projects and paramilitary-led social cleansing killings, both efforts to clean up Bogotá by purging the city center of deviant populations and places. Advancing an ethical approach to conducting research with excluded populations, this dissertation argues for the enactment of critical field praxis and care ethics within a YPAR framework to incorporate young people as principal research actors rather than merely voices represented in adultist academic discourse. Interjection of considerations of space, gender, and participation into the study of street youth produce new ways of envisioning the city and the role of young people in research. Instead of seeing the city from a panoptic view, Bogotá is revealed through the eyes of street youth who participated in the construction and feminist visualization of a new cartography and counter-map of the city grounded in embodied, situated praxis. This dissertation presents a socially responsible approach to conducting action-research with high-risk youth by documenting how street girls reclaim their right to the city on paper and in practice; through maps of their everyday exclusion in Bogotá followed by activism to fight against it. Details: Miami, FL: Florida International University, 2011. 242p. Source: FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, Paper 432: Internet Resource: Accessed October 22, 2012 at http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/432 Year: 2011 Country: Colombia URL: http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/432 Shelf Number: 126765 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesStreet Children, Girls (Colombia) |
Author: Smith, Laura Michelle Title: Incorporating Spatial Information into Density Estimates and Street Gang Models Summary: The spatial features within a region influence many processes in human activity. Mountains, lakes, oceans, rivers, freeways, population densities, housing densities, and road networks are examples of geographical factors that impact spatial behaviors. Separated into two parts, the work presented here incorporates this information into both density estimation methods and models of street gang rivalries and territories. Part I discusses methods for producing a probability density estimate given a set of discrete event data. Common methods of density estimation, such as Kernel Density Estimation, do not incorporate geographical information. Using these methods could result in non-negligible portions of the support of the density in unrealistic geographic locations. For example, crime density estimation models that do not take geographic information into account may predict events in unlikely places such as oceans, mountains, etc. To obtain more geographically accurate density estimates, a set of Maximum Penalized Likelihood Estimation methods based on Total Variation norm and H1 Sobolev semi-norm regularizers in conjunction with a priori high resolution spatial data is proposed. These methods are applied to a residential burglary data set of the San Fernando Valley using geographic features obtained from satellite images of the region and housing density information. Part II addresses the behaviors and rivalries of street gangs and how the spatial characteristics of the region affect the dynamics of the system. Gangs typically claim a specific territory as their own, and they tend to have a set space, a location they use as a center for their activities within the territory. The spatial distribution of gangs influences the rivalries that develop within the area. One stochastic model and one deterministic model are proposed, providing different types of outputs. Both models incorporate important geographical features from the region that would inhibit movement, such as rivers and large highways. In the stochastic method, an agent-based model simulates the creation of street gang rivalries. The movement dynamics of agents are coupled to an evolving network of gang rivalries, which is determined by previous interactions among agents in the system. Basic gang data, geographic information, and behavioral dynamics suggested by the criminology literature are integrated into the model. The deterministic method, derived from a stochastic approach, modifies a system of partial differential equations from a model for coyotes. Territorial animals and street gangs often exhibit similar behavioral characteristics. Both groups have a home base and mark their territories to distinguish claimed regions. To analyze the two methods, the Hollenbeck policing division of the Los Angeles Police Department is used as a case study. Details: Los Angeles, CA: University of Californa, Los Angeles, 2012. 144p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed April 2, 2013 at: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/0z69s4gh Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/0z69s4gh Shelf Number: 128185 Keywords: Gangs (California)Geographic StudiesResidential NeighborhoodsSpatial Analysis |
Author: Fowler, Brandon Title: Understanding Colombian Violence Through Geographic Information Systems and Statistical Approaches Summary: In 2002, Colombia had the highest homicide rate of any Latin American country(Berkman, 2007). The origins of this violence, however, are complex and difficult to identify. It would be sensible to argue that it cannot be explained by any one particular factor, but rather an assortment of many factors that wholly represent the social, economic, and political conditions of Colombia. By better understanding the origins of Colombian violence, policy makers can more effectively address and alleviate this prolonged issue. This study examines the geographic nature of municipal homicide rates for Colombia in 2005. The purpose of this study is to determine whether there are any discernible patterns in the geographic distribution of homicide rates across Colombia at the municipal level. It also aims to determine what combination of statistically significant predictors, if any, generates acceptable regression models for predicting the distribution of homicide rates. Spatial autocorrelation methods, particularly Global and Local Morans I statistics, were used to identify the clusters of high-value homicide rates. Regression models, specifically OLS and GWR, were utilized to examine the relationships between homicide rates and an assortment of geographic factors, including Coca Cultivation Density, Presidential Election Participation Rate, Displaced Persons Rate, Standard of Living Index, Terrain Ruggedness Index, FARC Armed Actions Rate, and Public Force Armed Actions Rate. The results of this study indicate that clusters of high-value homicide rates were indeed located in the northern, southern, western, and central regions of Colombia. Among the aforementioned geographic factors, Coca Cultivation Density, Displaced Persons Rate, Standard of Living Index, Terrain Ruggedness Index, FARC Armed Actions Rate, and Public Force Armed Actions Rate all exhibited positive correlations. The variable exhibiting a negative correlation was the Presidential Election Participation Rate. Details: Bowling Green, KY: Western Kentucky University, 2013. 173p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed September 11, 2014 at: http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2232&context=theses Year: 2013 Country: Colombia URL: http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2232&context=theses Shelf Number: 133282 Keywords: Geographic Profiling Geographic StudiesGeographical Information Systems (GIS) Homicides (Colombia) Violence Violent Crimes |
Author: Heim, Krista Title: Visualization and Modeling for Crime Data Indexed by Road Segments Summary: This research develops crime hotspot analysis and visualization methodology that use street segments as the basic study unit. This incorporates the distance between points along a polyline rather than the standard Euclidean distance and has some distinct advantages over past methods. For each crime, this method creates a weight according to its distance from each road segment of its surrounding block. To create the hotspot visualization map, crime counts are smoothed over road segments based on the distance to nearest segments and the angle at which nearest roads meet at intersections. Crime data from the City of Alexandria, VA Police Department and San Francisco, CA (available at data.sfgov.org) are considered here using a combination of conventional ArcGIS and R graphics. I assume that demographic variables related to crime in large areas are still relevant to crime rates at the local level and seek to make use of the most spatially detailed data accessible. Decennial demographic variables at the block level for 2010 from the U.S. Census are associated with road segments by assigning the available values to the surrounding segments of each block. These variables include age, gender, population, and housing for both locations. Variables also considered are police calls for service, housing prices, elevation and speed limits. I discuss/compare area crime counts with polyline crime counts using (zero-inflated) Poisson and Negative Binomial regression with crime-related covariates, as well as MCMC Poisson-Gamma Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model in CrimeStat IV and a localized CAR model in R using distances between segments as weights. Conditional variable importance is measured using conditional random forest modeling to see which of the covariates are the most important predictors of crime and to decide which variables are the most appropriate to consider for visualization. Principal components are also used to create independent linear combinations of predictor variables. While most visualization approaches for street segments have emphasized one variable at a time, this research uses a 3 x 3 grid of maps using DPnet to highlight each grouping of road segments associated with classes based on two covariates. This multivariate visualization will allow us to explore multiple variables at a time and their patterns along a road network. Details: Fairfax, VA: George Mason University, 2014. 164p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed December 20, 2016 at: http://digilib.gmu.edu/jspui/bitstream/handle/1920/8991/Heim_gmu_0883E_10696.pdf?sequence=1 Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://digilib.gmu.edu/jspui/bitstream/handle/1920/8991/Heim_gmu_0883E_10696.pdf?sequence=1 Shelf Number: 147789 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsGeographic Analysis Geographic Studies High Crime Areas |