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Date: November 25, 2024 Mon
Time: 8:11 pm
Time: 8:11 pm
Results for juvenile offenders (south korea)
1 results foundAuthor: Park, Seong min Title: Improving Statistical Modeling of Repeat Victimization: Zero-inflated Effect and Bayesian Prediction Summary: Repeat victimization has become an important issue in the study of crime. However, studies on repeat victimization have not fully paid attention to the statistical characteristics of repeat victimization. In this study, I review the statistical characteristics of repeat victimization and identified three main statistical concerns that should be considered in order to improve the understanding of the phenomenon of repeat victimization: First, studies on repeat victimization have misrepresented the stochastic characteristics of repeat victimization. Second, researchers have neglected the possibility that there may be a large portion of the population who are practically immune from victimization. Third, I expect the accuracy of predicting future victimization may be increased by using both prior information and frequentist likelihood functions simultaneously. To address these concerns, I propose two statistical models: (1) the zero-inflated negative binomial model, and (2) the Bayesian predictive model. From the analysis of Korean Youth Panel data with these proposed models, I find that accounting for zero-inflated effects produces information about victimization that is not otherwise available. And I also detect that the causes of zero-inflated effects are sometimes different than the causes of high risk or event dependency. However, I fail to find optimistic utility of Bayesian methods for studying repeat victimization. Though Bayesian methods can be used to develop individual victimization predictions that are comparable across people and circumstances, their prediction accuracy is less than a much simpler procedure: forecasting victimization based on prior victimization only. The limitations of this study and the suggestions for future studies are discussed. Details: Cincinnati: University of Cincinnati, Department of Criminal Justice, 2010. 144p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed October 22, 2011 at: http://etd.ohiolink.edu/view.cgi/Park%20Seong%20min.pdf?ucin1289841060 Year: 2010 Country: Korea, South URL: http://etd.ohiolink.edu/view.cgi/Park%20Seong%20min.pdf?ucin1289841060 Shelf Number: 123094 Keywords: Juvenile Offenders (South Korea)Repeat VictimizationVictims of Crimes |