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Date: November 22, 2024 Fri
Time: 11:57 am
Time: 11:57 am
Results for risk prediction
1 results foundAuthor: Arnold, David Title: Racial Bias in Bail Decisions Summary: This paper develops a new test for identifying racial bias in the context of bail decisions - a high-stakes setting with large disparities between white and black defendants. We motivate our analysis using Becker's (1957) model of racial bias, which predicts that rates of pre-trial misconduct will be identical for marginal white and marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially unbiased. In contrast, marginal white defendants will have a higher probability of misconduct than marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially biased against blacks. To test the model, we develop a new estimator that uses the release tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to identify the relevant race-specific misconduct rates. Estimates from Miami and Philadelphia show that bail judges are racially biased against black defendants, with substantially more racial bias among both inexperienced and part-time judges. We also find that both black and white judges are biased against black defendants. We argue that these results are consistent with bail judges making racially biased prediction errors, rather than being racially prejudiced per se. Details: Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2017. Source: Internet Resource: NBER Working Paper No. 23421: Accessed May 22, 2017 at: https://www.princeton.edu/~wdobbie/files/racialbias.pdf; http://www.nber.org/papers/w23421 Year: 2017 Country: United States URL: https://www.princeton.edu/~wdobbie/files/racialbias.pdf Shelf Number: 145664 Keywords: BailJudicial Decision-MakingPretrial ReleaseRacial BiasRacial DiscriminationRisk Prediction |