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Date: November 22, 2024 Fri
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Results for spatial analysis
22 results foundAuthor: Smith, Brent L. Title: Pre-Incident Indicators of Terrorist Incidents: The Identification of Behavioral, Geographic, and Temporal Patterns of Preparatory Conduct Summary: Findings from the American Terrorism Study (NIJ grant #1999-IJCX-0005 and DHS/MIPT grant #lO6- 1 13-2000-064) reveal that unlike traditional criminality, terrorists are much less spontaneous, engage in substantial planning activities, and commit ancillary and preparatory crimes in advance of a terrorist incident. Building on these findings, the goals of the current project were to determine whether (1) sufficient open source data exists to examine the temporal and spatial relationships that exist in terrorist group planning, and (2) if such data do exist, can patterns of routinized preparatory conduct be identified. To accomplish these goals, subject matter experts were selected to identify terrorist groups incidents that operated or occurred within the United States from four major categories: international; and three types of domestic terrorism -- left-wing, rightwing, and single issue (which was limited to environmental and anti-abortion terrorism). Sixty-seven "cases" were selected for analysis. Of these sixty seven, sixty of the cases were sufficiently fertile to provide some data for analysis. These included 22 right-wing, 9 left-wing, 10 international, and 17 single issue cases. Information on some 200 terrorist "incidents" (right-wing, 41; left-wing, 51; international, 58; and single issue, 50) was extracted from open source data on these cases to create a relational database composed of 265 variables. Geospatial data was recorded on some 515 terrorists' residences, planning locations, preparatory activities, and target locations. Due to the exploratory nature of this research, analyses focused upon the identification of general temporal and spatial patterns of activity. On average, the terrorist groups studied existed for some 1,205 days from the date of the first known planning meeting to the date of the actuallplanned terrorist incident.' This figure, however, should not be taken as indicative of the average "lifespan" of terrorist groups. Some of the groups studied, such as the United Freedom Front and Omega 7, operated for several years, atypical for most terrorist groups. The planning process for specific acts began, on average, approximately 2-3 months prior to the commission of the terrorist incident. Planning and preparatory activities were intermingled during this period. However, on average, a lull in activities occurred during the last three to four weeks prior to the incident. Approximately two and one-half known planning and preparatory behaviors were recorded per incident and these varied by type of terrorist group. The spatial analysis revealed that terrorists typically live relatively close to the incident target. Nearly one-half of the terrorists resided within 30 miles of the target location. Similarly, approximately one-half of the terrorists engaged in their planning and preparatory activities within this distance of their residences. Finally, a similar percentage of preparatory behaviors took place within 30 miles of the eventual target of the terrorist incident. the terrorist incident. The implications for local law enforcement are extremely important. While terrorists may think globally, they act locally. Both preventative efforts and post-incident investigations should focus upon local events and persons as the primary source of information about terrorist activities. Details: Fayetteville, AR: Terrorism Research Center, Fullbright College, University of Arkansas, 2006. 540p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 10, 2018 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/214217.pdf Year: 2006 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/214217.pdf Shelf Number: 117132 Keywords: Spatial AnalysisTerrorismTerrorist TargetsTerrorists |
Author: Venkatesh, Sudhir Alladi Title: A Research Note: The Socio-Spatial Consequences of Inmate Release in New York City Summary: This Research Note addresses an identified research void on inmate release by examining the role of space in the resettlement of individuals who are exiting correctional facilities and are returning to urban neighborhoods. This paper focuses on those individuals who are resettling, with the aim of illuminating the potential consequences of spatial movements for individual social outcomes. Details: New York: Center for Urban Research and Policy, Columbia University, 2007 Source: Spatial Information Design Lab, Columbia University; The Open Society Institute Year: 2007 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 116211 Keywords: InmatesReintegrationSpatial Analysis |
Author: Savoie, Josee Title: Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Crime in Canada: Summary of Major Trends, 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2006 Summary: "This paper summarizes the major trends in the series on the spatial analysis of crime conducted by the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics (CCJS) using geographic information system technology in Canadian cities. The main purpose of this analytical series, which was funded by the National Crime Prevention Centre at Public Safety Canada, was to explore the relationships between the distribution of crime and the demographic, socio‑economic and functional characteristics of neighbourhoods." Details: Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2008. 36p. Source: Internet Resource; Crime and Justice Research Paper Series; no. 15; Accessed August 16, 2010 at: http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/collection_2008/statcan/85-561-M/85-561-MIE2008015.pdf Year: 2008 Country: Canada URL: http://dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/collection_2008/statcan/85-561-M/85-561-MIE2008015.pdf Shelf Number: 112357 Keywords: (Canada)Crime Statistics (Canada)Geographic StudiesNeighborhoods and CrimeSocioeconomic Status (Canada)Spatial Analysis |
Author: Johnson, Ryan Title: Striking at the Roots of Crime: The Impact of Social Welfare Spending on Crime During the Great Depression Summary: The Great Depression of the 1930s led contemporaries to worry that people hit by hard times would turn to crime in their efforts to survive. Franklin Roosevelt argued that the unprecedented and massive expansion in relief efforts “struck at the roots of crime” by providing subsistence income to needy families. After constructing a panel data set for 81 large American cities for the years 1930 through 1940, we estimate the impact of relief spending by all levels of government on crime rates. The analysis suggests that a ten percent increase in relief spending during the 1930s lowered property crime by roughly 1.5 percent. By limiting the amount of free time for relief recipients, work relief was more effective than direct relief in reducing crime. More generally, our results indicate that social insurance, which tends to be understudied in economic analyses of crime, should be more explicitly and more carefully incorporated into the analysis of temporal and spatial variations in criminal activity. Details: Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007. 41p. Source: Internet Resource: NBER Working Paper Series; Working Paper 12825: Accessed October 25, 2010 at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12825.pdf Year: 2007 Country: United States URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12825.pdf Shelf Number: 120070 Keywords: EconomicsProperty CrimeSocial WelfareSpatial AnalysisUnemployment |
Author: Williams, Nancy J. Title: Crime and Medical Marijuana Dispensaries: Exploring the Ecological Association between Crime and Medical Marijuana Dispensaries Summary: Routine activities theory purports that crime occurs in places with a suitable target, motivated offender, and lack of guardianship. Medical marijuana dispensaries (MMDs) may be places that satisfy these conditions, but this has not yet been studied. The current study examined whether or not the density of MMDs are associated with crime. Design: An ecological, cross-sectional design was used to explore the spatial relationship between density of MMDs, sociodemographics and two types of crime rates (violent crime and property crime) in 95 Census tracts in Sacramento, California during 2009. Spatial error regression methods were used to determine associations between crime rates and density of MMDs, controlling for neighborhood characteristics. Findings: Violent and property crime rates were positively associated with percent commercially zoned, percent one person households, and unemployment rate. Higher violent crime rates were associated with concentrated disadvantage. Property crime rates were positively associated with percent of population 15 to 24 years, percent owner occupied households, and presence of highway ramps. Density of MMDs was not associated with violent or property crime rates. Conclusions: Consistent with previous work, variables measuring routine activities at the ecological level were related to crime. There were no observed associations between the density of MMDs and either violent or property crime rates in this study. These results suggest that the density of MMDs may not be associated with increased crime rates or that measures dispensaries take to reduce crime (i.e., doormen, video cameras) may increase guardianship, such that it deters possible motivated offenders. Details: Los Angeles: California Center for Population Research, University of California - Los Angeles, 2011. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: On-Line Working Paper Series PWP-CCPR-2011-010: Accessed October 26, 2011 at: http://papers.ccpr.ucla.edu/papers/PWP-CCPR-2011-010/PWP-CCPR-2011-010.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://papers.ccpr.ucla.edu/papers/PWP-CCPR-2011-010/PWP-CCPR-2011-010.pdf Shelf Number: 123151 Keywords: Drug Abuse and CrimeDrug Abuse TreatmentDrug PoliceMedical Marijuana (California)Routine ActivitiesSpatial Analysis |
Author: Charron, Mathieu Title: Neighbourhood Characteristics and the Distribution of Crime in Toronto: Additional Analysis on Youth Crime Summary: This study, funded by the National Crime Prevention Centre of Public Safety Canada, explores the spatial distribution of police-reported youth crime in Toronto. It examines how youth crime is geographically distributed in Toronto and endeavours to shed light on the relationship between police-reported youth crime and the neighbourhood characteristics that are most strongly associated with it. This report represents the second phase of the spatial analysis of police-reported crime data for Toronto and builds on the research paper, Neighbourhood Characteristics and the Distribution of Police-reported Crime in Toronto (Charron 2009). Other cities, including Edmonton, Halifax, Montréal, Regina, Saskatoon, Thunder Bay and Winnipeg have also been analysed as part of this series on the spatial analysis of police-reported crime data. The spatial analysis of crime data provides a visual representation of areas of concentrated crime. It also helps identify neighbourhood characteristics that are related to crime levels (See Text box 1). It can be an important tool in the development and implementation of crime reduction strategies. (See Methodology section at the end of the report for more detailed information on the methodologies used in this study). Data for this study cover the city of Toronto, an area patrolled by the Toronto Police Service. Toronto is located at the heart of a vast metropolitan system bordering the western end of Lake Ontario (from Oshawa to St. Catharines–Niagara), that includes 9 of the country’s 33 census metropolitan areas and over 8,000,000 inhabitants (nearly one quarter of Canada’s population). The city of Toronto is the capital city of Ontario and had a population of over 2,500,000 in 2006, the reference year for this study; about 175,000 were aged 12 to 17 years. Previous studies undertaken by the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics have similarly focused on the relationship between crime and neighbourhood characteristics (Charron 2009; Savoie 2008). These studies have shown that crime is not distributed evenly in a municipality, but tends to be concentrated in certain neighbourhoods or ’hot spots’. Additionally, other studies have focused specifically on youth crime. For example, Perreault et al. (2008) found that neighbourhood characteristics accounted for only a small proportion of youth crime hot spots in Montréal. In Toronto, Fitzgerald (2009) found that the delinquency of young students was not associated with the characteristics of the neighbourhoods surrounding their schools. Details: Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2011. 31p. Source: Internet Resource: Crime and Justice Research Paper Series; Accessed January 13, 2012 at: http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2011/statcan/85-561-M/85-561-m2011022-eng.pdf Year: 2011 Country: Canada URL: http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2011/statcan/85-561-M/85-561-m2011022-eng.pdf Shelf Number: 123601 Keywords: Crime Hot SpotsJuvenile DelinquencyJuvenile OffendersNeithbourhoods and Crime (Toronto, Canada)Spatial AnalysisYouth Crime |
Author: Malleson, Nick Title: Evaluating an Agent-Based Model of Burglary Summary: An essential part of any modelling research is to evaluate how a model performs. This paper will outline the process of evaluating a new agent-based model that is being developed to predict rates of residential burglary. The model contains a highly detailed environment which is representative of Leeds, UK. Following Castle and Crooks (2006), the process of evaluating the model will be segregated into three distinct activities: verification, calibration and validation. Verification refers to the process of establishing whether or not the model has been built correctly. This can be an extremely difficult process with complex models. Here, verification is accomplished by “plugging-in” different types of virtual environment which enables the researcher to limit environmental complexity and thus isolate the part of the model that is being tested. Following verification, calibration is the process of configuring the model parameters so that the output match some field conditions. However, this is a non-trivial task with models that are inherently spatial as it must be decided how to compare the two data sets. To this end, the paper will explore a number of spatial techniques and statistics that can be used to compare spatial data before documenting the process of calibrating the model. After calibration, it is necessary to ensure that the model has not been over-fitted to the calibration data (a process termed validation). Here, this is accomplished by running the model using environmental data from a different time period and comparing the results to the corresponding crime data. Details: Leeds, UK: School of Geography, University of Leeds, 2010. 84p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper 10/1: Accessed January 20, 2012 at: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/10_1.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/10_1.pdf Shelf Number: 123684 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic StudiesGeographical Information Systems (GIS)Residential BurglarySpatial Analysis |
Author: Kongmuang, Charatdao Title: SimCrime: A Spatial Microsimulation Model for the Analysing of Crime in Leeds Summary: This Working Paper presents SimCrime, a static spatial microsimulation model for crime in Leeds. It is designed to estimate the likelihood of being a victim of crime and crime rates at the small area level in Leeds and to answer what-if questions about the effects of changes in the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the future population. The model is based on individual microdata. Specifically, SimCrime combines individual microdata from the British Crime Survey (BCS) for which location data is only at the scale of large areas, with census statistics for smaller areas to create synthetic microdata estimates for output areas (OAs) in Leeds using a simulated annealing method. The new microdata dataset includes all the attributes from the original datasets. This allows variables such as crime victimisation from the BCS to be directly estimated for OAs. Details: Leeds, UK: School of Geography, University Leeds, 2006. 55p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper 06/1: Accessed January 20, 2012 at: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/4982/1/SimCrime_WorkingPaper_version1.1.pdf Year: 2006 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/4982/1/SimCrime_WorkingPaper_version1.1.pdf Shelf Number: 123688 Keywords: Crime Analysis (U.K.)Geographic StudiesGeographical Information SystemsSocioeconomic StatusSpatial AnalysisVictims of Crime |
Author: Smith, Laura M. Title: Adaptation of an Animal Territory Model to Street Gang Spatial Patterns in Los Angeles Summary: Territorial animals and street gangs exhibit similar behavioral characteristics. Both organize themselves around a home base and mark their territories to distinguish claimed regions. Moorcroft et al. model the formation of territories and spatial distributions of coyote packs and their markings in [24]. We modify this approach to simulate gang dynamics in the Hollenbeck policing division of eastern Los Angeles. We incorporate important geographical features from the region that would inhibit movement, such as rivers and freeways. From the gang and marking densities created by this method, we create a rivalry network from overlapping territories and compare the graph to both the observed network and those constructed through other methods. Data on the locations of where gang members have been observed is then used to analyze the densities created by the model. Details: Unpublished Paper, 2012. 22p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 10, 2012 at Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 124432 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGangs (Los Angeles)Geographic StudiesSpatial Analysis |
Author: Tran, Peter Title: Rochester Motor Vehicle Break-Ins Summary: This paper will examine the issues of motor vehicle break–ins in Rochester through spatial, temporal, aoristic and other environmental analysis. These use analysis are also used to determine the increase or decrease in motor vehicle breaks in certain PSA (Police Service Area) within particular days, weeks, and months. These certain PSAs were selected based upon the high increase or hotspots of motor vehicle break-ins the city of Rochester; these PSAs are 30, 44, 46, 50, and 51. The PSAs selected includes residential areas as well as commercial areas within Rochester. The data of motor vehicle break-ins collected are from the beginning of May 2007 to the end of April 2009. Details: Rochester, NY: Center for Public Safety Initiatives, Rochester Institute of Technology, 2009. 18p. Source: Working Paper # 2009-07: Internet Resource: Accessed May 8, 2012 at http://www.rit.edu/cla/cpsi/WorkingPapers/2009/2009-07.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: http://www.rit.edu/cla/cpsi/WorkingPapers/2009/2009-07.pdf Shelf Number: 125214 Keywords: Crime StatisticsGeographic StudiesSpatial AnalysisTheft from Motor Vehicles (New York) |
Author: Holzer, Jacqueline W. Title: A Spatial Analysis of Human Trafficking in Greater Los Angeles Summary: This research provides a spatial analysis of the local anti-human trafficking movement that has emerged in Greater Los Angeles since the discovery of the El Monte case in 1995. Over the past 15 years, the U.S. government has allocated substantial funds and resources to fighting human trafficking in Greater Los Angeles and elsewhere in the country. Non-governmental and governmental institutions have launched a series of awareness campaigns, established coalitions of agencies, developed and implemented rescue strategies and social service programs, and educated tens of thousands of law enforcement members and local communities on the issue of human trafficking. So far, these federally led anti-human trafficking efforts have struggled to yield their expected outcome in terms of the number of victims identified and traffickers prosecuted. Deploying a variety of ethnographic and qualitative methods, this study investigates how and in what form a localization of international and national anti-human trafficking responses through local agents has emerged as an essential but often neglected factor in effectively combating human trafficking in Greater Los Angeles. The study identifies key agents operating in the anti-human trafficking sector and analyzes the forms in which local agents create space for meaningfully and effectively translating national antitrafficking policies into specific local contexts. Results show that community-based organizations embracing the dynamics of place and adopting a strong victim-centered approach have produced better outcomes in terms of identifying victims, organizing adequate and necessary assistance, and seeking justice for survivors of human trafficking. Details: Los Angeles: University of Southern California, 2010. 316p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed June 26, 2012 at: http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/assetserver/controller/item/etd-Holzer-4100.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/assetserver/controller/item/etd-Holzer-4100.pdf Shelf Number: 125402 Keywords: Forced LaborHuman Trafficking (Los Angeles, California)Sexual ExploitationSpatial Analysis |
Author: Abelson, Peter Title: Modelling House Prices across Sydney with Estimates for Access, Property Size, Public Transport, Urban Density and Crime Summary: This paper examines the structure of house prices across the city, in this case Sydney, as an aid to urban development strategy and in particular to determine the potentially positive effects of public transport and negative effects of residential density on property prices. We model median house prices in 626 suburbs and achieve a high level of explanation. Distances from the CBD and from the coast are dominant factors in explaining house prices in Sydney. Predictably house and lot size are also highly significant factors. On the other hand a high propensity for violent crime significantly reduces property values. Over the whole city distance to rail station is not a statistically significant variable, but in suburb groups that are poorly served by other modes, median house prices fall significantly with increased distances to station. We found a similar but weaker result for access to high frequency buses. Contrary to expectation we found that higher density is marginally associated with higher median prices. However as the density variable is correlated (negatively) with median land area and, to a lesser extent, with distance to CBD, we would be cautious about concluding that density has no negative effect on house prices. Details: Adelaide: National Institute of Labour Studies, Flinders University, 2012. 28p. Source: Internet Resource: NILS Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 181/2012: Accessed January 22, 2013 at: http://dspace.flinders.edu.au/jspui/bitstream/2328/26086/1/No.%20181.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Australia URL: http://dspace.flinders.edu.au/jspui/bitstream/2328/26086/1/No.%20181.pdf Shelf Number: 127352 Keywords: Economics of CrimeHousing and CrimeSpatial AnalysisUrban AreasUrban Development |
Author: Smith, Laura Michelle Title: Incorporating Spatial Information into Density Estimates and Street Gang Models Summary: The spatial features within a region influence many processes in human activity. Mountains, lakes, oceans, rivers, freeways, population densities, housing densities, and road networks are examples of geographical factors that impact spatial behaviors. Separated into two parts, the work presented here incorporates this information into both density estimation methods and models of street gang rivalries and territories. Part I discusses methods for producing a probability density estimate given a set of discrete event data. Common methods of density estimation, such as Kernel Density Estimation, do not incorporate geographical information. Using these methods could result in non-negligible portions of the support of the density in unrealistic geographic locations. For example, crime density estimation models that do not take geographic information into account may predict events in unlikely places such as oceans, mountains, etc. To obtain more geographically accurate density estimates, a set of Maximum Penalized Likelihood Estimation methods based on Total Variation norm and H1 Sobolev semi-norm regularizers in conjunction with a priori high resolution spatial data is proposed. These methods are applied to a residential burglary data set of the San Fernando Valley using geographic features obtained from satellite images of the region and housing density information. Part II addresses the behaviors and rivalries of street gangs and how the spatial characteristics of the region affect the dynamics of the system. Gangs typically claim a specific territory as their own, and they tend to have a set space, a location they use as a center for their activities within the territory. The spatial distribution of gangs influences the rivalries that develop within the area. One stochastic model and one deterministic model are proposed, providing different types of outputs. Both models incorporate important geographical features from the region that would inhibit movement, such as rivers and large highways. In the stochastic method, an agent-based model simulates the creation of street gang rivalries. The movement dynamics of agents are coupled to an evolving network of gang rivalries, which is determined by previous interactions among agents in the system. Basic gang data, geographic information, and behavioral dynamics suggested by the criminology literature are integrated into the model. The deterministic method, derived from a stochastic approach, modifies a system of partial differential equations from a model for coyotes. Territorial animals and street gangs often exhibit similar behavioral characteristics. Both groups have a home base and mark their territories to distinguish claimed regions. To analyze the two methods, the Hollenbeck policing division of the Los Angeles Police Department is used as a case study. Details: Los Angeles, CA: University of Californa, Los Angeles, 2012. 144p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed April 2, 2013 at: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/0z69s4gh Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/0z69s4gh Shelf Number: 128185 Keywords: Gangs (California)Geographic StudiesResidential NeighborhoodsSpatial Analysis |
Author: LaRue, Elise Title: Patterns of Crime and Universities: A Spatial Analysis of Burglary, Robbery and Motor Vehicle Theft Patterns Surrounding Universities in Ottawa Summary: This thesis explores the spatial distribution of crime in Ottawa, Canada in 2006. Crime pattern theory provides the theoretical framework for examining the relationship between the rates of burglary, robbery, and motor vehicle theft and the two universities, University of Ottawa and Carleton University. This thesis uses ArcView 3.3 software to geocode and spatially join the crime and census data, and uses GeoDa 0.9.5-i software to conduct a spatial regression procedure that accounts for spatial autocorrelation between the crime rates and socio-demographic characteristics at the dissemination area level. This thesis finds support for crime pattern theory and the geometric theory of crime, as universities are the strongest predictors of the rates of burglary and motor vehicle theft. This thesis also finds some support for both social disorganization theory and routine activity theory as a number of the expected relationships between the socio-demographic and socio-economic variables and crime are observed. Details: Burnaby, BC: Simon Fraser University, School of Criminology, 2013. 134p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed October 28, 2013 at: Year: 2013 Country: Canada URL: summit.sfu.ca/system/files/iritems1/12869/etd7732_ELarue.pdf Shelf Number: 131399 Keywords: Automobile Theft Burglary Colleges and Universities Motor Vehicle Theft Robbery School Crime Spatial Analysis |
Author: Irvin-Erickson, Yasemin Title: Identifying Risky Places for Crime: An Analysis of the Criminogenic Spatiotemporal Influences of Landscape Features on Street Robberies Summary: In environmental criminology, it is widely accepted that crime risk is affected by the legitimate and illegitimate activities hosted at places. Most studies exploring this influence use the concepts of environmental criminology to explain how landscape features (such as cash businesses, illegal markets) can promote criminal behavior. However, studies based on place-based indicators provide an incomplete picture of crime emergence. First, most studies assume a temporally uniform crime-generating influence of landscape features, ignoring the social relevancy of these features at different times. Second, in most crime and place studies, the spatial influence - the ways in which features of a landscape affect places throughout the landscape (Caplan, 2011, p. 57) - is operationalized arbitrarily (Ratcliffe, 2012). Moreover, few studies examine the interactivity of the criminogenic spatial influences of different landscape features on crime risk (Caplan et al., 2011). To address these limitations, this dissertation examined the individual and combined criminogenic spatiotemporal influences of landscape features on 2010 street robbery risk in the City of Newark, NJ, using the principles of Risk Terrain Modeling. Street robberies were classified into six daily and hourly temporal groups. According to the results of this dissertation, criminogenic features are different for different time models, and the extent and weight of their criminogenic influences vary between and within time nested models. At-risk housing, schools, churches, grocery stores, hair and nail salons, pawn shops, sit-down restaurants, and take-out restaurants are the only features that have round-the clock criminogenic influences on street robberies in all time models. Drug charges, pawn shops, grocery stores, take-out restaurants, and hair and nail salons exert the strongest criminogenic spatial influences in different time models. At-risk housing's, schools', and churches' criminogenic influences are statistically significant, albeit weak. High-risk micro places identified by the combined criminogenic spatiotemporal influences of landscape features are high likely places for street robberies in Newark, NJ. Details: Newark, NJ: Rutgers University, School of Criminal Justice, 2014. 161p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed April 1, 2015 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248636.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248636.pdf Shelf Number: 135114 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PlacesEnvironmental CriminologyRisk ManagementSpatial AnalysisStreet Robbery |
Author: di Bella, Enrico Title: Introducing Spatial Configuration in Crime Count Models Summary: The main techniques used for quantitative analyses of urban crime can generally be divided into three categories: descriptive studies of crime dispersion over a specific urban area without any substantial statistical modeling, traditional statistical spatial models whose normality assumptions do not hold and count models which do not take into account the spatial configuration of the urban layouts. In this work we discuss how configurational components can be introduced in the count data modeling of crime illustrating our point with a case study centered on a highly populated area of the City of Genoa on three crime typologies. The statistical modeling of crime at street level is performed using count models which include the usual economic and socio-demographic variables, complemented with a set of configurational variables, built using the techniques of Space Syntax Analysis, in order to include, among the regressors, the graph complexity of the urban structure. The configurational variables included in this model are statistically significant, consistently with the criminological theories stating that the urban layout has a role in crime dispersion over a city and their use among the set of regressors, substantially improves the overall goodness of fit of the models. The configurational variables herein introduced add an implicit spatial correlation structure of crime to the models and give new and useful information to Municipalities to interpret how crime patterns relate to the urban layout and how to intervene through the means of urban planning to reduce or prevent crime. Details: Genoa: Universit degli Studi di Genova, 2013. 53p. Source: Internet Resource: DEP Working Papers Series no.2 : Accessed October 14, 2016 at: http://www.dep.unige.it/RePEc/gea/wpaper/dwpo-2-jun2013.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Italy URL: http://www.dep.unige.it/RePEc/gea/wpaper/dwpo-2-jun2013.pdf Shelf Number: 144800 Keywords: CPTEDCrime AnalysisCrime PreventionDesign Against CrimeSpatial AnalysisUrban Areas |
Author: Meyer, William Debard Title: Analyzing Crime on Street Networks: A Comparison of Network and Euclidean Voronoi Methods Summary: he analysis of the uneven spatial distribution of crime has been an important area of research investigation and policy analysis for the past several decades. These analyses typically use spatial analytical methods that are based on the assumption of Euclidean (straight-line) distance. However, crime like most social activity is often mediated by the built environment, such as along a street or within a multi-story building. Thus, analyzing spatial patterns of crime with only straight-line Euclidean distance measurement ignores this intervening built landscape and may very possibly introduce error into the ensuing result. The purpose of this research is to compare and contrast the differences in analytical results for spatial analysis techniques that have the capability to use either Euclidean or network distance. Voronoi diagrams which can be implemented utilizing either Euclidean distance or network distance (distance measured along a street) offer a means for performing this comparison. Utilizing Voronoi diagram implementations with Euclidean distance and network distance this thesis will examine the spatial distribution of gun-inflicted homicide locations and the similarity/differences between the results of their application with the aim of informing the spatial analysis of street located homicide. Details: Urbana-Champaign: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2010. 75p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed October 21, 2016 at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47563673_Analyzing_Crime_on_Street_Networks_A_Comparison_of_Network_and_Euclidean_Voronoi_Methods Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47563673_Analyzing_Crime_on_Street_Networks_A_Comparison_of_Network_and_Euclidean_Voronoi_Methods Shelf Number: 131166 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime MappingCrime NetworksGun-Related ViolenceHomicidesSpatial Analysis |
Author: Peixoto, Betania Totino Title: Preventing Criminality: An Economic Evaluation of a Brazilian Program Summary: In this work we carried out an economic evaluation of Fica Vivo program in its pilot area, Morro das Pedras slum. Fica Vivo is the main program of prevention and control of criminality that is being carried in Brazil. This program was based on the CeaseFire Project proposed by the School of Public Health of the University of Illinois - Chicago in the nineties and that inspired several programs in other countries. The principal objective of the program is the reduction of homicides in areas of hot spots. Regarding homicides, in general, in Brazil, these hot spots occur in slums. The program combines preventive with repressive (police/ judicial) activities. This evaluation is done considering the pilot area of the program, Morro das Pedras slum, situated in Belo Horizonte city, Brazil. The impact of the program is estimated using a Double Difference Matching method applied to a panel data of police records between 2000 and 2006. The impact variable is the half-yearly homicide rate per one hundred thousand inhabitants. The costs were accounted based on accountability information sourced by the Social Defense Secretary and the State Police. The results show that the program reduces criminality, diminishing the homicide rate. Details: Unpublished paper, 2008. 27o, Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 13, 2017 at: http://www.cedlas-er.org/sites/default/files/aux_files/peixoto.pdf Year: 2008 Country: Brazil URL: http://www.cedlas-er.org/sites/default/files/aux_files/peixoto.pdf Shelf Number: 147296 Keywords: Cost-Benefit AnalysisCrime AnalysisHomicidesHot SpotsSlumsSpatial AnalysisViolent Crime |
Author: Ingram, Matthew C. Title: Geographies of Violence: A Spatial Analysis of Five Types of Homicide in Brazil's Municipalities Summary: Objectives: Examine the spatial distribution of five types of homicide across Brazil's 5,562 municipalities and test the effects of family disruption, marginalization, poverty-reduction programs, environmental degradation, and the geographic diffusion of violence. Methods: Cluster analysis and spatial error, spatial lag, and geographically-weighted regressions. Results: Maps visualize clusters of high and low rates of different types of homicide. Core results from spatial regressions show that some predictors have uniform or stationary effects across all units, while other predictors have uneven, non-stationary effects. Among stationary effects, family disruption has a harmful effect across all types of homicide except femicide, and environmental degradation has a harmful effect, increasing the rates of femicide, gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Among non-stationary effects, marginalization has a harmful effect across all measures of homicide but poses the greatest danger to nonwhite populations in the northern part of Brazil; the poverty-reduction program Bolsa Familia has a protective, negative effect for most types of homicides, especially for gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Lastly, homicide in nearby communities increases the likelihood of homicide in one's home community, and this holds across all types of homicide. The diffusion effect also varies across geographic areas; the danger posed by nearby violence is strongest in the Amazon region and in a large section of the eastern coast. Conclusions: Findings help identify the content of violence-reduction policies, how to prioritize different components of these policies, and how to target these policies by type of homicide and geographic area for maximum effect. Details: Notre Dame, IN: The Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame, 2015. 65p. Source: Internet Resource: Kellogg Institute for International Studies, Working Paper Series: #405: Accessed April 29, 2017 at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2604096 Year: 2015 Country: Brazil URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2604096 Shelf Number: 145194 Keywords: Crime AnalysisFemicideGeographical AnalysisHomicidesMurdersPovertySpatial AnalysisViolent Crime |
Author: Synnott, John Title: Why crime occurs where it does: A psycho-spatial analysis of criminal geography Summary: This study investigates the impact of aspects of geographic location on criminal spatial behaviour. It is also concerned with where crimes occurs and how the location of crime may actually limit the behavioural possibilities of criminality, these limitations are derived, in part, from offenders representations of their offending locations and the potential for desired criminal activity in those locations. The underlying behavioural possibilities for criminal movement relate to the background characteristics of the individuals committing offences. The Thesis develops a locational characteristic paradigm, which puts the focus on where crime occurs reflecting the type of the individual who is likely to commit crime there. This study examines those features of individuals' psychological, physical or cultural backgrounds, as they relate to geography, that prohibit or inhibit forms of criminal movement. The study addresses this by focusing on an offenders' representation of crime opportunities, the distribution of crime locations and offenders considerations when planning their crimes. The study aims to provide a direct challenge to some of the key concepts within the criminal spatial literature, such as routine activity theory, rational choice theory, the psychological importance of the home and the influence of familiarity on crime locations. Individual differences across features of criminality are examined. Real crime cases are explored in order to unearth the differences within the geographic profile of offences. Offender representations of their offending areas are studied in an attempt to establish what these depictions actually represent. The work explores the distribution of offence locations and the rationale offenders put forward for why they offended where they did to establish if there are barriers to offending and how offenders account for these barriers, if at all. The first stage of the research is a Case Study introduction to the crime of Tiger Kidnap (TK) in Ireland. TK is an adaptation of a Standard Armed Robbery offence and is the term used to describe the abduction of a person(s) of importance to a target (generally a bank manager) in which that person(s) is used as collateral until the target complies with the requests of the offenders. What makes TK a unique crime is introduced and the substantial distribution of offence locations, something which has not previously been observed in the criminology literature, is discussed. The first empirical analysis addresses methodological concerns within the measurement of distance data. It challenges the related literature which suggests Crow Flight as a valid and reliable measure of criminal distance data. Previous studies acknowledge that Crow Flight knowingly underestimates the likely distance offenders travel and that it relates to the relative position of locations in the mental representations of distance. It is hypothesised that this difference is likely to be significant, and, that offenders conceptualise distance through routes, not relative positions of location. This was confirmed in the interviews with offenders. This study compliments previous work on this topic by opening the possibility of a new methodological alternative for measuring criminal distance data. The argument for this conceptualisation of distance is based on the advancement in technology and transport primarily, where offenders now have access to route information much more readily than they will have to deal with the relative position of locations. The advance planning found in the current cases show that offenders have gone as far as to travel the routes that they will use, indicating that these distances are considered in terms of routes and the time it takes to travel these routes. The hypothesis is that there is a significant difference between the Crow Flight measure and the Route Distance measure of distance data. A significant distortion in probable distance travelled compared to the Crow Flight measure was found. The findings provide support for the current argument that distance measures in future studies would have greater methodological precision if they were to favour the route distance measure . The work moves to examine the geographical profile of TK offences in Ireland. Building on the first study into distance measurements, and how using route distance appears to be, for Irish offences, a more psychologically valid form of measurement. The second study applied these findings onto the measurement stage of a sample of real cases of TK while also looking at the variation between offences. The hypothesis was that there would be a significant difference between TK in the North and South of Ireland. The analysis found that offenders in the North of Ireland had a significantly reduced geographic profile than offenders in the South. These differences relate to the type of offenders that are operating in those locations. Research from the Home Office and reports from the Police Service of North Ireland has suggested that TK in the North, are committed by ex-paramilitary offenders who are likely to have advanced skills in hostage taking and experience in staging and planning operations of this nature. This type of offender is less bound to the geographical opportunities that offenders in the South can avail of and operate on a much more refined geographic template than their counterparts in the South. This study highlights the distortion that can be found when studying types of offences as a whole, and, specifically, it showed the differences that can exist within the same crime type. The forth stage of the work explored offenders cognitive maps and the information that can be gleaned from the graphic representations of their crimes. The study tested the validity of a revised model of Appleyard's 1970's Sketch Map Classification Scheme. The study questions whether the multi optional classification schemes are too broad to distinguish one style of map from another. The results supported this position, finding that the rigid classification schemes are unreliable as they are too subjective in the manner in which they can be ascribed. However, it was found that there was a distinction between maps that were basic and simple over more complex maps. It was also found that the context behind the drawing, as in what was being represented by the offender, influenced the style of map that was presented. This suggests that knowledge of the background to the offender is just as integral to the process of classifying an individual's cognitive map as is the sketch map itself. The final study explores the role of psychological barriers to crime and offenders interpretation of their offending behaviour. This was achieved through exploring the distribution of crime around the Dublin region in Ireland. The hypothesis was that the distribution of offences would be restricted to the side of the city in which the offender resided. This was supported through the finding that offenders preferred to offend on the side of the city that they lived. This is illustrated in the maps that they marked their crimes on. This was based on the psychological barriers to movement that manifests itself in the River Liffey that divides the North of the city from the South of the City. Offenders rationale for offending on one side of the city over the other highlights an interesting development in that they equate the locations in which they offend to be based on issues removed from the influence of the river partition. Security consideration and closeness to home were offered as reasons why offenders offended where they did. However, when studying the distribution of offence locations they highlight a clear distinction in the form of a geographic arena, based on the river that divides the city. Further examples of this geographic arena are discussed in respect to the distribution of offence locations in the North of Ireland which relate to the border that previously divided the North of Ireland from the South of Ireland. This study highlighted the need for an understanding of not just offender characteristics but also the physical characteristics of the location of crime. The implications of these studies for how we conceptualise criminal spatial movement are discussed. At present, there exist little to no study into the area of spatial context, which is an understanding of the nature of the differences in movement based on the characteristic background of the offender. The special importance of the crime of TK and the unique contributes of this form of criminality is outlined. A criterion based paradigm for the measurement, analysis and interpretation of geographical data is put forward. An improved understanding of specific influencing aspects of offenders' spatial behaviour will enhance the modelling of offender behaviour. This has implications for policing and the investigation of crime generally. Details: Huddersfield, UK: University of Huddersfield, 2013. 273p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed November 29, 2017 at: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/23486/ Year: 2013 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/23486/ Shelf Number: 148583 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime and PlaceCriminal GeographySpatial Analysis |
Author: Kintz, Matthew W. Title: Smoke and Mirrors? Examining the Relationship between Medical Cannabis Dispensaries and Crime Summary: Medical cannabis dispensaries (MCDs) are storefront businesses that distribute cannabis to qualified patients for medical purposes. Opponents of MCDs have criticized policies in California and other states that allow for storefront distribution of the drug, which they allege attracts crime. Proponents, on the other hand, contend that regulated MCDs actually reduce crime in their communities. This study seeks to evaluate these competing claims by analyzing crime rates, MCD density, and other neighborhood characteristics across 189 census tracts in San Francisco using data for the year 2010. Reported crimes are collected from the San Francisco Police Department and classified into violent crimes (assault and robbery) and property crimes (arson, burglary, larceny-theft, vandalism, and motor vehicle theft). Location data for 26 MCDs and 43,688 reported crimes in San Francisco from the year 2010 are geocoded and aggregated into census tracts using GIS software. Regression models are used to test for the criminogenic effects of MCD density and three "exogenous sources of social disorganization": socioeconomic disadvantage, family disruption, and residential instability. Findings indicate a weak but statistically significant relationship between MCD density and crime. Stronger relationships are found between crime and the three categories of control variables drawn from social disorganization theory. These findings cast doubt on the claim that MCDs are magnets for criminal activity, but more research is needed to clarify this link. Details: Berkeley, CA: UC Berkeley, 2012. Source: Internet Resource: UC Berkeley Charlene Conrad Liebau Library Prize for Undergraduate Research: Accessed February 21, 2018 at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5hz9n172 Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5hz9n172 Shelf Number: 149204 Keywords: Drugs and Crime Medical Marijuana Spatial AnalysisUrban Crime |
Author: Perc, Matjaz Title: Understanding Recurrent Crime as System-Immanent Collective Behavior Summary: Containing the spreading of crime is a major challenge for society. Yet, since thousands of years, no effective strategy has been found to overcome crime. To the contrary, empirical evidence shows that crime is recurrent, a fact that is not captured well by rational choice theories of crime. According to these, strong enough punishment should prevent crime from happening. To gain a better understanding of the relationship between crime and punishment, we consider that the latter requires prior discovery of illicit behavior and study a spatial version of the inspection game. Simulations reveal the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance between "criminals", "inspectors", and "ordinary people" as a consequence of spatial interactions. Such cycles dominate the evolutionary process, in particular when the temptation to commit crime or the cost of inspection are low or moderate. Yet, there are also critical parameter values beyond which cycles cease to exist and the population is dominated either by a stable mixture of criminals and inspectors or one of these two strategies alone. Both continuous and discontinuous phase transitions to different final states are possible, indicating that successful strategies to contain crime can be very much counter-intuitive and complex. Our results demonstrate that spatial interactions are crucial for the evolutionary outcome of the inspection game, and they also reveal why criminal behavior is likely to be recurrent rather than evolving towards an equilibrium with monotonous parameter dependencies. Details: Maribor, Slovenia: University of Maribor, 2013. 7p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 21, 2019 at: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076063&type=printable Year: 2013 Country: International URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076063 Shelf Number: 157038 Keywords: Crime Prevention Rational Choice Theory Spatial Analysis |